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SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
04-15-21 03:31 PM - Post#323233    
    In response to mrjames

The lost season complicates things significantly, though. When we looked before at your predictions (and any good ones, really), you nail some things, but you also miss significantly on others. Yale in 2019-2020 significantly outperformed your expectations (and everyone else’s). But that performance becomes a primary factor in evaluating 2021. Taking a year away detracts a lot from what we can say about 2022.

For a team like Harvard, for example, we would have had a lot more information regarding whether the recruiting gap manifested in oncourt performance. They could have struggled as an inexperienced team in 2021. They also could have performed like the Fab Five and killed everyone right off the bat. Either of those results (or even the more likely in between) would be a lot more information about what we will see in 2022. Instead, we get a blank page.

For Penn, most of us expected a drop, and perhaps a significant one. But 2021 would have given us a lot of information as to whether P38 could be right about MLL, among other things. There was a chance (perhaps a small one) that Penn just kept chugging along in the top 4, and if they did, we’d know a lot more about 2022.

The high mark for both of those teams is high enough that, in combination with a strong Yale team and potential at Brown, the league could have been better than expected in 2021. Perhaps it is unlikely, but I don’t think we know enough to be sure. And that full year without info kind of doubles what is already an imperfect view of what will really happen in 2022.
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