JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-20-24 05:35 AM - Post#361839
In response to PeteD
Princeton -9.5
This is not a knock on Columbia – USC lost by 20 last night at Utah – both elite teams, but home court is worth 7 in many models.
Tigers usually find a way to win at home. If Columbia can play at an up tempo pace, get and hit their 3s at a typical rate, does Princeton have enough perimeter offense to keep pace? The Tigers are very good preventing the former, so as not to have to answer the latter.
To be clear, both teams are very good – For me (and the stats bear this out) the 22-23 versions for both are slightly better than the 23-24, as the former were more experienced and the later are integrating emerging talent. This is a very subtle view as combined they are 25-7 and both have been prohibitive favorites in at least 20 of those games.
For both, their best win has been Villanova – their worst losses are about the same – Stone Brook vs. Rhode Island. Between these bookends Princeton has not lost – Columbia has lost to Florida close and Georgia.
A lot will depend on which teams show up: If the game is the Lions team that almost beat Duke vs. the Tiger team that only beat Le Moyne by 11, Columbia is likely to win. If Princeton plays like the statement win at Harvard 72-49, the Tigers will cover.
Stepping back, tomorrow is really irrelevant for both team’s NCAA goals. Not sure either gets an at large. Unlikely they will be either the 2-3 or 1-4 opening round game of Ivy Madness. Both will be WBIT eligible. Columbia will have home court advantage for Ivy Madness (did you get your tickets yet?)
The stats for both teams are exceeding good – it will be the 32nd Columbia scoring offense (77.3 ppg) vs/ the 37th Princeton defense (57.7 ppg) – last year it was the 14th offense vs the 5th defense. From the other perspective it’s the 124th Princeton scoring offense (68.3 ppg) vs. The 155th defense (64.1 ppg)
I tend to believe very good defense & adequate offense will win more than very good offense & adequate defense – this will be a good test - and to be honest, after reviewing the stats I was surprised to see Princeton in the bottom 10% in the country in some key offensive metrics, so I moved the line from -13.5 to -9.5:
Tigers’ Opponents 2-Point % is 40.4% - 33rd – but Columbia is 53.1% for 2-Point % - 26th
Princeton’ opponent 3-Point % defense is 36.8%, 347th out of 360 – Can the Lions exploit this with their 35.2% Three point rate (53rd) vs. the Tiger who allow a 26.1% three point rate (79th) – those who live by the 3 …
Both teams rebound well on O & D – Columbia is slightly a bit better, do they get a couple more second chance points, transition baskets than what Princeton typically allows?
Offensively Princeton is a bit of an enigma: The Tigers are 332nd in Poss/40 Min at 66.6 – 13.7% of Point from FT (340th), 62.6% Points from 2 (334th) and 23.6% Points from 3 (266th).
A weakness for Columbia is fouls: they are is 250th in Fouls/Game 18.2 … But the Tigers’ FT rate is 12.3% - 352nd and against Harvard who commits similar # of fouls to the Lions (18.4 fouls per game), Princeton went to the line 12 times.
In a 67 possession game, Columbia likely has a 6-7 point advantage from 3 …and 1-2 point advantage from the FT line over Princeton – that’s a lot of extra 2pts for Tigers if the defense can’t stop the Lion’s perimeter game. But for many years, Princeton's defense has risen to this very challenge - especially at home.
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