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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: 2/16 Lines        (Topic#21178)
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2039
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-16-18 11:39 AM - Post#247996    

Penn -2.5 @ Columbia; Stay away. Just win, baby.
Brown +9.5 @ Harvard; Take the points, looks like Cambridge will be OK
Yale -3.5 @ Dartmouth; Dartmouth is strong ATS at home
PU -3.5 @ Cornell; take PU tonight, not tomorrow


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 17348

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2/16 Lines
02-16-18 12:45 PM - Post#248020    
    In response to Streamers

Stay away from all of these....nothing is certain in the Ivies.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5078

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2/16 Lines
02-16-18 12:55 PM - Post#248023    
    In response to palestra38

Aside from Princeton-Cornell (implied ~4 pt HCA), all the lines are merely 3pt HCA translations (i.e. 6 points overall) from the lines the first time around. (I don't love 3 pts as the translation, FWIW... I think for the Ivies 2 or 2.5 makes more sense).

The only one that surprises me is Brown +9.5. That's a point or two more than we'd have expected prior to Brown getting drubbed by Cornell. Not sure I love that one game pushing the line by a couple points. Also worth noting that Harvard did beat Brown by 9 in Providence BUT got 18 points in 20 mins on 37% usage from Bryce Aiken, who ostensibly won't play tonight.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5078

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-16-18 02:40 PM - Post#248036    
    In response to mrjames

FWIW, here's what my luck adjusted model says for each game (1,000 sims):

HARVARD 72, Brown 65 (70 poss)
Yale 69, DARTMOUTH 68 (69 poss)
Penn 71, COLUMBIA 69 (71 poss)
Princeton 71, CORNELL 67 (69 poss)

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 7138

Reg: 12-07-04
02-16-18 03:16 PM - Post#248044    
    In response to mrjames

Thanks for sharing Mike. It should be an interesting weekend.

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2039
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-17-18 11:38 AM - Post#248208    
    In response to Quakers03

Revealing night last night. Brown covered as expected, Yale proved they are better than they looked in the Palestra handling Dartmouth easily on the road, Penn gets 23 from Goodman (emerging from the doghouse and nearly doubling his season point total)to break the Levien curse on a night the starters were pretty bad, and Cornell hosts another one of those epic OT spectaculars that we are seeing a lot of this year, effectively taking PU out of the race.

On to this evening:

Penn goes from -4 to -6 @ Cornell. I think Penn wins this (the starters will be better and CU may be a bit spent after last night) but 6 is too much on the road.

Brown is +1 @ Dartmouth. (Even on some boards) They have been good to me this year, sticking with them.

PU is +1 @ Columbia. I really thought they would be -3 or -4 going into the weekend. Will they be desperate or just done after last night? Staying away,

Yale is +4.5 @ Harvard in the late game (how come they get the extra time between games?) Taking Yale here. Still not impressed with Harvard without Aiken. Word is that Mason might play.

 
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