Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-17-10 02:16 PM - Post#76318
From win probabilities for remaining games as of today:
Princeton's Odds
13-1 6.4%
12-2 38.9%
11-3 40.0%
10-4 12.9%
9-5 1.7%
8-6 0.1%
Cornell's Odds:
13-1 30.9%
12-2 47.5%
11-3 18.5%
10-4 2.9%
9-5 0.2%
Harvard's Odds:
12-2 16.7%
11-3 43.0%
10-4 32.5%
9-5 7.1%
8-6 0.6%
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Pomeroy Odds
02-17-10 03:29 PM - Post#76327
In response to Brian Martin
More importantly, title odds:
Cornell - 47.8%
Princeton - 13.3%
Harvard - 4.2%
Two-Way Tie - 32.1%
Three-Way Tie - 2.5%
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puband09
Masters Student
Posts: 782
Reg: 12-19-09
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Re: Pomeroy Odds
02-17-10 05:25 PM - Post#76350
In response to mrjames
His rest-of-schedule predictions (Cornell lose at Harvard, Princeton lose at Cornell) would result in a very exciting play-off game.
I can't find anywhere on KenPom.com the final record and champion spreads you guys posted. Where are they/how do you navigate to them?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Pomeroy Odds
02-17-10 05:58 PM - Post#76358
In response to puband09
We're both doing them ourselves, unless there's something on that site that I don't know about...
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Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-17-10 08:05 PM - Post#76361
In response to mrjames
I set up a spread sheet to calculate Princeton's chances then it was easy to figure the others by substituting their game probabilities.
Princeton's odds of beating both Cornell and Harvard are around 10% but there is a 34% chance they lose one of the other 5 games.
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Bryan
Junior
Posts: 233
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-18-10 12:16 AM - Post#76379
In response to Brian Martin
Through yesterday, in Ivy only games, based on Pomeroy's count of possessions per game, the points per possession, points allowed per possession, difference in points per possession and possessions per game figures are shown below.
Team PF/Poss PA/Poss Diff Poss/G
Cornell 1.13 0.86 0.27 64.63
Princeton 1.00 0.84 0.16 55.71
Harvard 1.09 0.99 0.11 63.75
Yale 1.02 1.02 0.01 66.00
Penn 0.98 1.03 -0.05 60.43
Brown 0.95 1.02 -0.08 65.25
Columbia 0.90 1.04 -0.15 63.00
Dartmouth 0.78 1.03 -0.25 63.50
Total 0.98 0.98 0.00 62.94
Princeton's defense has been very good but Cornell's has been almost as good and Cornell's offense has been much better. Sorry, the spacing between columns gets lost between typing the message and the preview.
Bryan
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Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-18-10 09:22 AM - Post#76387
In response to Bryan
The difference between Cornell and Princeton in league games is much more variance in Cornell's results. Some big blowout wins with high offense and low defense numbers but one bad defensive game against Yale and one catastrophic defensive game against Penn.
Princeton has been more consistent, playing close to its average in each game. The Tigers worst defensive league game was .949 defensive efficiency after Harvard hit some late threes. For the full season, Princeton is undefeated when it scores at least .9 points per possession. That shows how good and how consistent the defense has been.
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