gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 2260
Reg: 02-06-10
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03-03-10 07:09 PM - Post#77739
Prove that you're actually a hard luck, underperforming team by beating Cornell on Friday. Then I will concede that it wasn't Princeton's lack of effort that was 90% to blame.
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Bruno
Masters Student
Posts: 689
Loc: Brooklyn, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-10 09:15 PM - Post#77743
In response to gokinsmen
Not happening. Go Brown, but go Cornell too.
| LET'S go BRU-no (duh. nuh. nuh-nuh-nuh) |
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 2260
Reg: 02-06-10
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Shut Me Up, Please
03-05-10 09:36 PM - Post#77939
In response to Bruno
Well, so much for that. This game turned into a blowout after a run-and-gun first half. Cornell was insane from 3, but Brown didn't defend the perimeter whatsoever.
Cornell's thumping of Brown just makes the loss at Jadwin sit even worse with me. Talk about a hard lesson learned -- gotta come out with intensity, even against Brown.
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CUJacob
Senior
Posts: 353
Reg: 12-05-04
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03-05-10 11:47 PM - Post#77954
In response to gokinsmen
One of the interesting things is that Cornell and Princeton both play "high variance" strategies-- Cornell with their reliance on the 3 ball, Princeton with their low-possession strategy (increasing the chances for a very efficient offensive game from its opponent). Not too surprising that they've both dropped a game to an inferior team this year.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 2260
Reg: 02-06-10
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Shut Me Up, Please
03-06-10 12:44 AM - Post#77960
In response to CUJacob
Hmm, I actually don't see a connection between the two. Princeton's style is extremely low-variance. It keeps even an efficient team at bay through its low-possession rate. While Cornell is indeed high-variance -- when it's on, it can hang with Kansas. When it's off, it can struggle against Brown (i.e. the first game).
It's amazing how teams like Brown and Harvard fail to learn from Princeton and Bucknell. The latter two gave Cornell fits by limiting the number of 3pt attempts. The former pair tried to win a shootout with the Big Red...good luck with that. Arrogance? Stupidity? I don't understand.
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CUJacob
Senior
Posts: 353
Reg: 12-05-04
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03-06-10 02:40 AM - Post#77966
In response to gokinsmen
Playing games with few possessions is by definition a high variance strategy. By limiting the number of possessions, you increase the odds that the inferior team (whether its Princeton or its opponent) can hang around. Obviously, if Princeton plays well enough, but few possessions=high variance.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 2260
Reg: 02-06-10
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Shut Me Up, Please
03-06-10 03:19 AM - Post#77968
In response to CUJacob
Well, if you're referring to a specific term, then I'm unaware of it. I see what you mean now, but it's a very tenuous link -- shared by Princeton and Cornell and 100+ other D-I teams.
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CUJacob
Senior
Posts: 353
Reg: 12-05-04
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03-06-10 05:35 AM - Post#77969
In response to gokinsmen
No specific term. There are a number of different strategies, many of which have nothing to do with one another, that qualify as high variance. Shooting a lot of 3s is one of them. So is playing low possession games. Another one is employing a full court defense. Not saying Princeton and Cornell are that similar, just suggesting that both use strategies that can backfire against inferior teams sometimes.
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Dmon826
Masters Student
Posts: 636
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 01-15-06
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03-06-10 02:22 PM - Post#77986
In response to CUJacob
There was an interesting, relevant article mrjames linked to a little while ago on this subject. A group of researchers looked at whether or not teams who played at a slower tempo in NCAA tournament games were more likely to pull upsets because of their higher-variance style. Not wanting to spoil the results, I'll let you read and find out:
http://harvardsportsanaly sis.wordpress.com/2010/02...
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CUJacob
Senior
Posts: 353
Reg: 12-05-04
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03-06-10 07:26 PM - Post#78022
In response to Dmon826
Very interesting. Seems like a lot more analysis could be done-- like accounting for quality of teams (maybe the fast paced underdogs were just better teams than the slow paced underdogs-- did the faster paced underdogs beat KenPom's projected margin more often than slow paced underdogs?)
Interesting stuff, but I'm not quite sure what to make of it.
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mrjames
Postdoc
Posts: 3005
Loc: New York, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-07-10 05:43 PM - Post#78139
In response to CUJacob
That's pretty much what I said in my comment on the site. There's a lot to be desired here in terms of sample size, especially if you want to "prove" a result that goes against both intuition and mathematical theory.
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