mountainred
Masters Student
Posts: 513
Age: 57
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
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12-20-10 10:42 PM - Post#91307
That's seven in a row, for those of you who are counting. Last time that happened was 2002, when the Big Red finished 5-22. I still think this year's edition will be better than that, but at some point Parcell's Maxim (you are what your record says you are) becomes operative.
Bucknell was simply better. The Bison led for 36 of the 40 minutes, shot an even 50%, and made Cornell work for everything on offense. Offensively, other than Peck (21 pts on 9/12 shooting) and Groebe (5 of 7 from beyond the arc), there was little to be excited about. Coach D used to say he saw the most improvement from his team after the exam break; if that's the case, this could be a very long year.
Big questions for the new year:
Fouls? Man can this team foul. The Ken Pom breakdowns are staggering and it is crippling any sense of a rotation for Courtney. Coury sandwiches his best game of the season with foul outs in 12 minutes and 18 minutes. Peck has committed 4 or 5 fouls in 8 of 10 games; his four second half fouls tonight cost him seven minutes while having is best game as a Cornellian (21 pts 8 Rebs). Wire is on pace for nearly 100 fouls. With Peck and Wire on the floor, Cornell can look ok. With both out, it was way too perimeter dependent.
Rotation? I know the starters: Wrobo, Ferry, Peck, Wire and Coury/Osgood in the post. Next off the bench? Your guess is as good as mine. One game its McMillian, Gray and Groebe. The next its MAA, Figini and Gatlin. Today Sahota saw three early minutes only to disappear (not that he did a whole lot to earn more time while in the game). McMillian plays reasonably productive minutes against Minnesota and Binghamton, but gets 3 minutes tonight. Groebe's hot shooting may have played a role, but it's hard to figure.
Offense? Any team starting Wire (and Cornell has to start Wire for everything else he can do) and Coury is going with two minus players on the offensive end. Put MAA on the floor and you make it way to easy to play defense against the Red. Then you have Wrobo's shooting slump, in part caused by forcing shots because he knows there is no other option, and Ferry's JuCo gunner mentality (whenever he hits a shot, he "feels it" and goes "in the zone" and is guaranteed to take at least one absolutely brutal shot). The result is that there is going to be at least one 5 minute scoreless stretch a game. Hard to win when the other team is scoring for 40 minutes and you are scoring for only 30-35.
Obviously my 10-4 upside has gone from unlikely to almost impossible. Harvard and Princeton are playing too well and the rest of the league has improved such that there are no easy games. 7-7 feels like a reasonable goal, but even that will take improvement. What is disappointing me is that the Red looked better a month ago than they do now. My spirits need a good performance and win against someone.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Bucknell 75 Cornell 64
12-20-10 11:58 PM - Post#91310
In response to mountainred
Yup. That's pretty much where this team is right now.
Still good enough defense to be competitive in the Ivy League. And driving to Ithaca is a tough trip. I don't see why 8-9 wins still isn't possible. It's just not as likely as most had originally thought.
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cornellfan4
Masters Student
Posts: 543
Reg: 12-09-09
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Re: Bucknell 75 Cornell 64
12-21-10 05:08 AM - Post#91321
In response to mrjames
Yup. That's pretty much where this team is right now.
Still good enough defense to be competitive in the Ivy League. And driving to Ithaca is a tough trip. I don't see why 8-9 wins still isn't possible. It's just not as likely as most had originally thought.
They may be a decent defensive team by the stats but they havent played good defense when it really matters. Tonight they let Bucknell go off on several 10-0 runs, they let that one guy on BU go off for ~30 points, they gave Binghamton too many open looks from 3
They do get a decent amount of steals and turnovers but dont rebound well. To use your wording, they play a high variance style defense by going for steals and over pursuing which results in either a turnover or a defensive breakdown somewhere leading to an open shot or an easy layup
They should not be 2-8 right now, some of the blame has to go on Courtney. You are exactly right about the rotation, mountainred. Why did Sahota go in for a few minutes, he looked good in the Red White game but has not really played since? Why has he buried Gray on the bench, the guy played well the first two games, won the Albany game for you, and was rewarded with getting to play no minutes. Instead Courtney plays Miles who cant shoot.
Also Courtney has put so much emphasis on defense that it seems to have hurt the offense, they often look lost on offense, pass look around pass look around chuck a contested 3. Most of the team has no problem with chucking a 3 with 30s left on the shot clock even if it is contested, they have no patience to look for a good shot.
I wonder how many wins Donahue would have gotten with this team, I bet they would be at least .500, Donahue has done wonders at BC offensively with no depth with only ~8 scholarship players
Edited by phillysportsfan on 12-21-10 05:09 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Bucknell 75 Cornell 64
12-21-10 10:24 AM - Post#91331
In response to cornellfan4
Well, the other thing I look at is that the two "best" players on the team are playing horribly.
Wroblewski is turning the ball over on nearly 28 percent of possessions, and Peck's eFG% is barely over 40.
After starting the season strong, the defense is getting worse and worse. As Wroblewski and Peck turn it around, I expect the offense to improve, but that might be wiped out by the declining defense.
I just don't think much has changed about the year. It's a rebuilding year, and there was some hope in Ithaca that maybe the team could get hot and make a run in the Ivies. It still could. But the most likely outcome was that there would be some heavy growing pains as this team attempted to learn new roles left vacant by the departure of almost the entire rotation.
I tend not to blame or laud coaches as much as the next guy. Coaches tend to have a great impact in recruiting talent and motivating that talent to get into game shape both technically and physically. But other than end of game situations, where strategy is more prevalent, they don't tend to influence outcomes as much as most think.
Since the first Courtney recruiting class has been praised as a great success by the unofficial online home of the Big Red, I'd assume Courtney is doing very well as a coach.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Bucknell 75 Cornell 64
12-21-10 11:11 AM - Post#91337
In response to cornellfan4
I don't think the statement that Donahue could do better with this team means a whole lot. It's a team of Donahue recruits brought in to play Donahue's system. It's not a situation like Dartmouth or even the BC example you raise, where a new coach brings a fresh start after troubled times. This is a season where you are going to have growing pains by definition. If they end up 8th in the conference as you are predicting, knock yourself out blaming the coach. But as of now they haven't performed in a way that either predicts that or indicates a coachign problem.
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cornellfan4
Masters Student
Posts: 543
Reg: 12-09-09
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Re: Bucknell 75 Cornell 64
12-21-10 01:13 PM - Post#91341
In response to mrjames
Wrobo's performance has really declined over the year, I dont know if he is still hurt or the load of minutes they were placing on him earlier in the season is taking its toll. Its possible he is just not able to be a primary PG, he plays great as a guy to supplement a primary like Dale but cant be Dale. And right now he really has no help from the other PG, Miles cant score, Gray has made some really poor decisions over the last few games
You really cant judge Peck by his season stats, he had an awful first 6 games until Syracuse. Since Syracuse he has played well against Syracuse, MN, and played great last night against Bucknell. He admitted in the Cornell Daily Sun that he had not been giving his full effort in preparing for games before the Syracuse game but I guess he has made a change.
Courtney seems to have brought in a good recruiting class but who really knows until we wait 4 years, no one probably thought much of the Dale, Wittman class. At this point as a Cornell fan I am just frustrated and grasping for something to blame and yeah the Donahue comment is probably a dumb one. I guess I look to Courtney for a little blame because they have declined over the season instead of improving.
Edited by phillysportsfan on 12-21-10 01:13 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Bucknell 75 Cornell 64
12-21-10 02:10 PM - Post#91350
In response to cornellfan4
Ran the splits for pre- and post-Syracuse games.
Indeed, Peck has been much improved offensively:
Four Factor Rates
eFG%: Before - 24.4%; After - 54.3%
TORate: Before - 22.8%; After - 13.5%
OReb%: Before - 1.1%; After - 9.5%
FTRate: Before - 20.5%; After - 39.1%
Other Key Metrics
ORating: Before - 58; After - 112
ARate: Before - 13.2%; After - 24.9%
FLPoss: Before - 25.4%; After - 28.1%
Points Prod/Gm: Before - 4.3; After - 14.5
Floor Pct: Before - 27.3%; After - 53.8%
Granted, the two sample sizes are 6 games (before) and 4 games (after). Also, the "after" has been remarkable, but it's also really where he was expected to average not go on a hot streak to achieve.
Defensively, the metrics aren't impressive either before or after the Syracuse game. Maybe Peck will never be a good defensive rebounder. I don't know. But the defensive metrics aren't following his offense.
As for Wroblewski, Ferry, Gray - actually, really anyone other than Max Groebe - the offensive metrics were initially below-average and since the Syracuse game have either remained below-average or even declined.
If Wroblewski can't find a way to turn things around, this really cements the 2008 ROY argument in my head in favor of Rosen. The latter put up decent numbers in the absence of any real production around him. The former had tons of help his freshman year and could put up above-average numbers as a role player. Now that Wroblewski lacks a lot of offensive weapons surrounding him, we're seeing him struggle to a far greater extent than Rosen ever did.
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besnoah
Masters Student
Posts: 803
Reg: 12-14-05
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Re: Bucknell 75 Cornell 64
12-21-10 02:24 PM - Post#91351
In response to mrjames
I'm just glad we finally have a large enough sample to cast our 2008 Ivy ROY ballots.
Edited by besnoah on 12-21-10 02:24 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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cornellfan4
Masters Student
Posts: 543
Reg: 12-09-09
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12-21-10 02:32 PM - Post#91355
In response to mrjames
I think Peck will maintain this hot streak since he is supposed to be this good, whatever change he has made in his off the court work has worked
Groebe is probably one of the streakiest shooters in D1, he either goes 4-6 from the 3 or 0-6
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Penn94
PhD Student
Posts: 1461
Loc: Dallas, Texas
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-21-10 03:38 PM - Post#91367
In response to cornellfan4
I think we found what Cornell's problem is this year.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/21/cornell-s...
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CUJacob
Senior
Posts: 353
Reg: 12-05-04
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12-21-10 04:55 PM - Post#91371
In response to Penn94
These last two games really surprised me. I felt pretty good about this team even after the 2-6 start since they played a number of tight games against good teams. These two bad losses have made me much less optimistic. Now thinking 5 Ivy wins instead of the 8 I was previously expecting.
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mountainred
Masters Student
Posts: 513
Age: 57
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
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12-21-10 05:24 PM - Post#91372
In response to CUJacob
Jacob, that's what has soured my mood. Before exams, Cornell was 2-3 in winnable games. Not great, but the losses were all very close and the Big Red had some moments against Syracuse and Minnesota. We are now 0-2 after exams with two poor efforts.
Wrobo is clearly out of his comfort zone. He's forcing poor shots, and no one is really doing anything with his passes. I did like how he began to attack the basket late in the Bucknell game; I think he drew three fouls on those drives late in the second half.
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mountainred
Masters Student
Posts: 513
Age: 57
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
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12-21-10 05:29 PM - Post#91373
In response to cornellfan4
Groebe is probably one of the streakiest shooters in D1, he either goes 4-6 from the 3 or 0-6
An Ivy League Vinnie Johnson! And he needed this game -- one more 0-3 and he may have been buried on the bench never to be seen again.
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