puband09
Masters Student
Posts: 782
Reg: 12-19-09
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03-14-11 04:43 PM - Post#101017
In response to pennhoops
You don't think JT3 can have an impressive career at Gtown!?!? He's only been there 7 years (this year's results still TBD) and has already gone to the Sweet Sixteen and the Final Four. Give him 10 or 20 more and I bet they play for a national title at least once.
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pennhoops
Postdoc
Posts: 2470
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-11 04:45 PM - Post#101018
In response to puband09
No, what I meant was that all the gravy talk about a 30 year run at Princeton was equally applicable to Carmody and Thompson and neither one lasted long at all.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-11 04:48 PM - Post#101019
In response to puband09
Sparman, I'd guess Leitao is busy counting the 2.1 million dollar buy out that Virginia gave him. When he's ready to jump back into things, he will - his financial future secure.
This also ignores basic facts we all know about successful peers - when they have a skill mastered, they often move on to the next challenge. Radiohead coulda kept cranking out "The Bends" and had millions upon millions of fans paying for their albums, instead they wanted to try something different, and then something different again and in the process made only several million dollars instead of hundreds of million dollars (for you oldsters, sub in Beatles). Serial entrepreneurs leave jobs all the time to start the next new idea.
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puband09
Masters Student
Posts: 782
Reg: 12-19-09
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03-14-11 04:50 PM - Post#101020
In response to pennhoops
I was just a wee laddy when they were coaching, so I dunno what their attachment to Princeton was like; however, I'm guessing it was nothing like Johnson's.
I'm sure JT3 always hoped to continue his father's dynasty if possible. Carmody didn't even GO to Princeton, so I doubt he cared much. I'm sure Joe Scott would have loved to stay.
Johnson practically cries about what it means to be a Tiger in some of these interviews. I'm sure upsetting the reigning national champ during your coach's second-to-last game will do that to you.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-11 04:52 PM - Post#101021
In response to puband09
I was just a wee laddy when they were coaching, so I dunno what their attachment to Princeton was like; however, I'm guessing it was nothing like Johnson's.
GTFOWTBS...
or
Now who's being naive, Kay?
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puband09
Masters Student
Posts: 782
Reg: 12-19-09
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03-14-11 04:58 PM - Post#101023
In response to Jeff2sf
You think Carmody, someone who didn't even go to Princeton, is as attached as someone who played there under Pete Carril, beat the reigning national champs in the 2nd best all time NCAA upset, and met his wife in college?
Yup, that's naive.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-11 05:02 PM - Post#101025
In response to puband09
I'm more referring to JTIII. But people leave their alma maters all the time. And say "all the right things" all the time as well. You HAVE to know that's coach speak. You have to.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-11 05:05 PM - Post#101026
In response to Jeff2sf
You also have to understand what we're arguing about. Most coaches, say Carmody is a good example, the list of schools he'd have bolted Princeton for was about 150 long. You're saying the list of schools SJ would leave is about 10 long. I'm saying he's a pretty dedicated guy to Princeton and would turn down salary increases, but he'd leave for 50-75 schools.
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Dial Lodge
Sophomore
Posts: 170
Reg: 03-08-07
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Coach Sydney Johnson
03-14-11 05:06 PM - Post#101028
In response to pennhoops
OK, here's the article from pjstar.com that lists potential candidates for Bradley:
http://www.pjstar.com/sports/x2022451400/Re placing...
Tommy Amaker and Sidney Johnson are both on the list, but this article lists only names, and says nothing about whether these people have been contacted, or if they would have any interest. I doubt if this article contains much more than a who-should-we-try-to-get? list.
I don't see why Amaker or SJ would make a move to another Mid-Major school that lacks a powerful name (Princeton probably has a stronger name in basketball circles than does Bradley, and Amaker seems to be changing Harvard's basketball reputation - all he needs to make them an Ivy power is a new arena). Moving to Bradley would be a lateral move (except, perhaps, in salary), and you don't make a lateral move when your program is doing well and you're well-thoguht of where you are. I don't know either of these guys personally, but would assume that it would take a head coaching job at a major conference school to attract either one away, and would guess that Amaker could be more easily attracted away from his current job to a big-time job than Johnson could.
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pennhoops
Postdoc
Posts: 2470
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-11 05:12 PM - Post#101031
In response to Dial Lodge
If Amaker leaves Harvard for Bradley I will eat the internet.
And I'd give only slightly better odds of Johnson doing the same.
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umbrellaman
Masters Student
Posts: 475
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-11 05:20 PM - Post#101032
In response to puband09
I think coach Johnson isn't going anywhere anytime soon, but if he has the kind of success we want him to have, he'll probably move on up, if and when he got the right offer.
As I mentioned in the another post, Carmody spent 18 years at Princeton and cashed in his chips at Northwestern. He's never made it back to the tourney, and has no postseason wins of any kind in 11 seasons, and made 12 million dollars in the process.
Coach Johnson is young and I think part of the wisdom of hiring a young coach is that he'll be more apt to stay for awhile longer. But if he has any desire to coach at a BCS level, it's almost irresponsible to his family not to do so. Money isn't everything, but the difference is substantial.
I think Coach Carril had the insight to know that he would not have been happy making the compromises in a large conference. While I would love it if Sydney Johnson were successful and stayed for a number of decades, I don't see that happening.
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Albert08
Masters Student
Posts: 572
Reg: 08-21-10
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03-14-11 05:26 PM - Post#101033
In response to Jeff2sf
God, this argument could go on forever. Every coach has his own needs, desires, ambitions, etc. that factor into decisions like the next career move. We could speculate that Carmody stayed for a few years, but as the immediate successor to a legend, wanted to make his own mark somewhere else, but at a quality institution. JTIII seems to have had no issue with following his father, another legend, so maybe a key factor was coming home (he is still closely follows his high school team, Gonzaga College H.S., and its league). None of us knows what drives these guys deep down, but I would tend to side with the Princeton guys who think SJ will stay - at least for the foreseeable future.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1345
Reg: 12-08-04
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03-14-11 05:41 PM - Post#101036
In response to Jeff2sf
Sparman, I'd guess Leitao is busy counting the 2.1 million dollar buy out that Virginia gave him. When he's ready to jump back into things, he will - his financial future secure.
This also ignores basic facts we all know about successful peers - when they have a skill mastered, they often move on to the next challenge. Radiohead coulda kept cranking out "The Bends" and had millions upon millions of fans paying for their albums, instead they wanted to try something different, and then something different again and in the process made only several million dollars instead of hundreds of million dollars (for you oldsters, sub in Beatles). Serial entrepreneurs leave jobs all the time to start the next new idea.
That 2.1 gets small in a hurry. It's been 3 years, so he's already averaged down quite a bit.
But the thing is - as you know - the longer you are out of the game, the harder it is to get back in. There are newer, shinier, younger models coming out each year. You become forgotten.
Some people can get back in - Steve Lavin for example. But it makes a difference if you have a strong resume, meaning a winning record at a school people notice. In Bball, UVA and UCLA are not equal.
I am not arguing Johnson would never leave. If he gets the right offer, (IMO) he would and should. I don't think there are 50 such opportunities that would serve the call, but there are some. I just disagree that "any" big school offers the likelihood of landing on your feet, no matter what you do when you get there. Before you blithely uproot your family and surrender a comfortable setting, you want to be more careful than assuming a couple years of higher pay will make it all better and that you always land on your feet in a desirable place.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-11 07:10 PM - Post#101047
In response to sparman
Wow....what a great article on Jeff Ruland. When he and Mahorn were healthy, the Washington Bullets/Wizards were a thing of beauty.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-11 08:01 PM - Post#101052
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
It's only been two years that Leitao's been out of it. If we conservatively put a VA salary at half a million more than Princeton - the dude woulda made 5.5-6 million more over 6 years than coaching at Princeton (I know we're mixing coaches here, but the point remains). And then I'm sure if he threw himself at Dartmouth or Columbia they'd thank their stars. We don't know the type of opportunities that Leitao has been offered since then, but it'd be financially irresponsible to not take the job.
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Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-14-11 08:27 PM - Post#101061
In response to Jeff2sf
The big money jobs out there that are open to mid major coaches are tough, tough jobs. Programs like Providence and Georgia Tech and Arkansas have had enough success in the past to make alumni think they should be in the top 25 every year but they are in leagues with elite programs that will bury them over time.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1345
Reg: 12-08-04
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03-14-11 09:57 PM - Post#101088
In response to Jeff2sf
It's only been two years that Leitao's been out of it. If we conservatively put a VA salary at half a million more than Princeton - the dude woulda made 5.5-6 million more over 6 years than coaching at Princeton (I know we're mixing coaches here, but the point remains). And then I'm sure if he threw himself at Dartmouth or Columbia they'd thank their stars. We don't know the type of opportunities that Leitao has been offered since then, but it'd be financially irresponsible to not take the job.
FYI, he was hired by UVA for a period at intiial annual salary of $925K and coached for 4 years.
http://www.mopsquad.com/artman2/publish/Virgi nia_C...
I don't get your math. Even if you assume 6 years @ $500K more than PU, that means $3MM more than if he stayed. Then on the backside (e.g., Dartmouth), he would be losing, relative to PU.
If the only thing that interests a coach is the money and he's willing to move whenever/wherever to chase it, that's one thing, but most people aren't John Calipari and actually value personal stability.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2272
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-15-11 07:12 AM - Post#101120
In response to Brian Martin
I have found this thread very interesting, even though it is clearly completely conjectural, and will play out over years, not over one season, unlike the debates about teams and players.
To me the question is not whether Coach J will ever leave, because I think he would, for the right offer. The question of how long the list of acceptable schools might be is of course the most important one. I suspect his list is 25 schools or fewer.
My initial concern was whether he would leave for the FIRST high paying job, which is what happened with Carmody and Thompson. After the long Carrill tenure, each of the departures was a severe shock to my system. The allure of Georgetown for JTIII is obvious. The allure of Northwestern to Carmody is less clear, and it is interesting that there is now talk of replacing him. Next year could be his last year if he does not make the NCAA. And then where does he go?
I have come to believe that Coach J has a greater degree of institutional loyalty than either JTIII or Carmody, so I see him staying significantly longer than they did.
On the other hand, if he coached Princeton to the Ivy title again next year, over a clearly favored Harvard team, how hot a commodity would he then be? And could a job pop up from his short list?
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-15-11 09:13 AM - Post#101124
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
My math was off - I had 4.1 million in my head as the buyout. My bad.
So let's revise and now that you found Leitao's salary, it would have been 600K more, since I'm assuming Princeton/Penn pays about 300K. After 4 years, he had 4.5 million more than he would have coaching Princeton (2.1 buyout plus 600K for 4 years). It would take the coach of Princeton another 15 years to make that (yes he'll get raises but with time value of money...) plus the 4 years of the contract.
And what we've done is compare WORST case Virginia scenario with BEST case Princeton scenario - there's a very non-zero chance that Coach Johnson gets fired before he serves 19 more years at Princeton.
The math doesn't add up sparman. OF COURSE he takes a UVA job, OF COURSE he does.
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puband09
Masters Student
Posts: 782
Reg: 12-19-09
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03-15-11 11:31 AM - Post#101145
In response to Jeff2sf
Agree to disagree I guess. Like I said: big UVA fan here, and I think it is one of the worst jobs to take in BCS basketball.
You know why? One of your own: Craig Littlepage!
Sorry, I just have to make that jab every time I can 
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