palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32834
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 02:34 PM - Post#123058
In response to mrjames
I understand all of that and really do respect the KenPom system for predicting over a season. When it comes to one game, though, you can't eliminate the emotion that both Columbia and Cornell are bound to have, and that Harvard may or may not have lost. When this very biased observer looks at the subjective factors at play this weekend (Penn gets Yale on Senior night after Yale has to play a tough game at Princeton); Harvard is on the road against teams whose entire season (and Cornell's senior night) is this game right after a heartbreaking loss, I like the chances for Penn to be a game up going into Princeton.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 02:40 PM - Post#123060
In response to palestra38
I mean, Harvard got Penn on Senior Night after it had a battle the night before which it barely escaped. You can spin the narratives any way you want.
But my point still stands. You will get the opportunity to make your money this weekend. If you piece together what you believe will happen, you'll get somewhere north of 7-to-1.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32834
Reg: 11-21-04
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Amaker's Obstacle
02-29-12 02:46 PM - Post#123062
In response to mrjames
Well, I hate to act like an attorney, but the question is whether in your heart, you believe the true odds of Penn winning outright are 8-1? IF you were a betting man, would you lay those odds?
Oh, and Senior Night can't mean that much to Amaker if he leaves his Senior Captain, reigning Ivy MVP on the bench down the stretch as they blow the lead can it?
Edited by palestra38 on 02-29-12 02:50 PM. Reason for edit: Had to add that dig
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Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 02:51 PM - Post#123064
In response to palestra38
As I see it, the only real advantage Harvard has is that they play 2. Penn's only disadvantage is having to play Princeton on the road.
I think the advantage Harvard has is that a banged-up Penn team has to play 3 games in five days, including two against first tier teams, and finish at Princeton. That's a considerably tougher road than Harvard has, playing two second-tier teams.
However, if Penn wins the weekend, then they only have to play one game and have two days to rest up for it.
The permutations/emotions are going to change every night. If by some chance Columbia beats Harvard and Yale beats Princeton then Yale will be playing for a share of the title on Saturday at the Palestra and probably be fired up. If Yale loses to Princeton and Harvard beats Columbia, Yale's eliminated and their mood might be significantly different.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-29-12 02:51 PM - Post#123065
In response to palestra38
I don't have enough money to pay for Pomeroy, but does he really disagree with you about this weekend? Everything I've seen statistically (in addition to the emotional reaction that I think you are having) says that Harvard is more likely to drop a game this weekend than Penn (though I wouldn't be at all surprised if Penn does, or both do). Isn't the problem the Princeton game, which is the only one that the various metrics predict that either Penn or Harvard is more likely to lose than win?
As for the rest of this, I think I came away with a different impression of what happened at Harvard than you did. I think we came in with a puncher's chance, and we happened to land the punch and win it. We got outplayed with the exception of the last 5 minutes or so. If the game had been anything less than 40 minutes, we would have lost. The odds are that we would have lost if it went another 10 minutes, as well.
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Jay O
Masters Student
Posts: 547
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-16-09
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02-29-12 02:53 PM - Post#123066
In response to palestra38
The Amaker situation is the only reason why I might be able to convince myself that Harvard might not be favored, or at least that it's closer than it would otherwise seem. Depends if he's learned anything, or at least whether he can convince the players to think he has.
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Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 02:56 PM - Post#123067
In response to SomeGuy
Pomeroy has Penn 93% to beat Brown and 64% to beat Yale.
Harvard is 77% to beat Columbia and 82% to beat Cornell.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32834
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 02:59 PM - Post#123069
In response to SomeGuy
Was Big John Tate ever the same after Mike Weaver laid that last second KO on him?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L80hSwXc9LM
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 03:04 PM - Post#123071
In response to Brian Martin
This is what I have. It'll be close to Pomeroy, but not quite, because I use the variance/co-variance approach, and he uses the pythagorean shortcut method. Basically, he assumes that every team is equal variance/co-var, while I use the actual numbers.
PRINCETON 68, Yale 63 (71%)
CORNELL 65, Dartmouth 55 (94%)
Harvard 64, COLUMBIA 57 (23%)
PENNSYLVANIA 74, Brown 58 (97%)
PENNSYLVANIA 68, Yale 63 (71%)
Harvard 65, CORNELL 57 (14%)
PRINCETON 74, Brown 57 (96%)
COLUMBIA 65, Dartmouth 54 (92%)
PRINCETON 66, Pennsylvania 62 (70%)
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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02-29-12 03:07 PM - Post#123073
In response to palestra38
Actually, no.
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/11/sports/joh n-tate...
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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02-29-12 03:10 PM - Post#123074
In response to mrjames
Mike, I assume the percentage (in parentheses) = the odds of the home team winning the game. Do I understand that right?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 03:41 PM - Post#123076
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Yep yep.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 04:12 PM - Post#123078
In response to mrjames
P38... are you trying to jinx Penn? We're all pumped about last weekend no doubt. It was a great result overall, BUT we needed Rosen heroics to beat a lowly Dartmouth team with 1 Ivy League win. I think perhaps you are forgetting that game and focusing on the big win against Harvard...
That and the fact that we have to beat a Brown team that put up 94 points last Saturday and a third place Yale team that beat us once already. I like our chances at home, but you are really going a little overboard. Remember when we need a long Rosen 3 to beat Dartmouth at home?
Oh yeah and then we have to play 4th place Princeton (who I think is better than Yale anyway) away... for 3 games in 5 days. Then even if we've won out, chances are Harvard has won out as well and we have to play them again.
I'm as hopeful as anyone that the guys can find away, but it is absolutely clear that Harvard is still the clear, clear favorite.
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Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 963
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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Amaker's Obstacle
02-29-12 04:36 PM - Post#123082
In response to Mike Porter
Penn is so dominating that the Brown game is in the bag, so Allen should rest Rosen to save him for Yale and Princeton.
Edited by Brian Martin on 02-29-12 04:51 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32834
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 04:39 PM - Post#123084
In response to Mike Porter
There are glass half empty guys like you, and glass half full guys like me. Remember, I purchased tickets up at Harvard and 2 plane tickets to get there back in early January, at a point Jeff and others were abusing me for thinking that Penn had a chance in this race.
But anyway, nothing we say here will influence the ultimate outcome. While there is good reason to doubt that Penn can continue to win the close games (although its two losses were close as well), there is good reason to doubt that Harvard will win both of these games too. I was just objecting to the 85% chance given to Harvard to either win outright or tie, when they have 2 tough Ivy road games to go.
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Jay O
Masters Student
Posts: 547
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-16-09
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02-29-12 05:27 PM - Post#123096
In response to palestra38
While I agree that Harvard might be reeling a bit, why else do you doubt that they'll win both games? They haven't lost to Cornell or Columbia in a couple years.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-29-12 06:03 PM - Post#123099
In response to palestra38
It's always possible. But what's even better is that we're now in a position where, even if Harvard hasn't been staggered by last Saturday night's finish, we STILL just might pull this thing out. We control our own destiny with 3 (or maybe 4) to play for the first time in a long time.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-29-12 08:10 PM - Post#123111
In response to SomeGuy
Yes, there are very, very, very few of us who thought Penn was going to control it's own title chances headed into the final weekend of Ivy play. Certainly not me; I picked them for an 8-6 record in the preseason predictions.
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penn62
PhD Student
Posts: 1053
Reg: 11-27-05
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02-29-12 10:12 PM - Post#123117
In response to SomeGuy
If my Mother were my Father.
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mountainred
Masters Student
Posts: 514
Age: 57
Loc: Charleston, WV
Reg: 04-11-10
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03-01-12 03:45 PM - Post#123215
In response to Jay O
While I agree that Harvard might be reeling a bit, why else do you doubt that they'll win both games? They haven't lost to Cornell or Columbia in a couple years.
I know it's not 2010 anymore, but Harvard's win streak over Cornell is just 3 games. It's not like we're talking about a Penn State/Temple kind of series.
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