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Username Post: Bracketology        (Topic#13303)
loco09 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
loco09
Reg: 02-08-07
03-06-12 09:38 PM - Post#124587    

Now that we have secured our bid and things have started to settle down some we can look at the bracket projections to see what seed and who we might be playing. Things can still change alot though over the next week.

Lunardi/ESPN has us as a 15 playing Michigan St in Columbus

Jerry Palm/CBS has us as a 15 playing Ohio St. in Pittsburgh

The Washington Times has us as as a 14 playing Missouri in Omaha.

So really its all over the place but this will be fun to watch as upsets continue to happen.
It's Not Worth Winning if You Can't Win Big


 
DICKEY 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Reg: 01-18-07
03-06-12 09:56 PM - Post#124602    
    In response to loco09

From a friend with entirely too much time on his hands:

The committee is so subjective. Their history is that they are so-so at picking the 68 teams but not so good at seeding them. I tend to believe they rely heavy on computer numbers like the RPI (think BCS only less precise). If you use Lunardi's current ESPN projections, then to get a 14 seed they'd be competing with the following profiles. But dumbing it down to a few teams is hard because the committee's not smart & there's a domino effect to any crazy upsets that happen this week. For all we know we are a 14 in the commitee's eyes as we speak.

14 Seeds
RPI KenPom
Valparaiso 89 134
Davidson 66 66
Belmont 68 23
Akron 63 78

15 Seeds
Texas Arlington 98 104
Bucknell 87 98
Montana 86 95
Loyola (MD) 80 127

Belmont - Doubt we can jump.
Davidson - Doubt we can jump.
Vaparaiso - Cheer for Detroit in tournament final tonight.
Akron - Cheer against in tournament.

Montana - Cheer against in their tournament, their comp #'s are superior.
Bucknell - Cheer against in tournament.
Texas Arlington - Loyola's profile is better regardless imo.

 
Scott 
Sophomore
Posts: 144

Reg: 07-25-06
03-06-12 10:06 PM - Post#124609    
    In response to DICKEY

Coppin State won as a 15 seed in Pittsburgh in the mid 90's. I'd like to see another Baltimore team get that same opportunity.

 
LoCo2011 
Senior
Posts: 399

Age: 28
Reg: 01-05-08
03-06-12 11:14 PM - Post#124643    
    In response to DICKEY

  • DICKEY Said:
From a friend with entirely too much time on his hands:

The committee is so subjective. Their history is that they are so-so at picking the 68 teams but not so good at seeding them. I tend to believe they rely heavy on computer numbers like the RPI (think BCS only less precise). If you use Lunardi's current ESPN projections, then to get a 14 seed they'd be competing with the following profiles. But dumbing it down to a few teams is hard because the committee's not smart & there's a domino effect to any crazy upsets that happen this week. For all we know we are a 14 in the commitee's eyes as we speak.

14 Seeds
RPI KenPom
Valparaiso 89 134
Davidson 66 66
Belmont 68 23
Akron 63 78

15 Seeds
Texas Arlington 98 104
Bucknell 87 98
Montana 86 95
Loyola (MD) 80 127

Belmont - Doubt we can jump.
Davidson - Doubt we can jump.
Vaparaiso - Cheer for Detroit in tournament final tonight.
Akron - Cheer against in tournament.

Montana - Cheer against in their tournament, their comp #'s are superior.
Bucknell - Cheer against in tournament.
Texas Arlington - Loyola's profile is better regardless imo.



Agree with this.. a lot of people are touting that b/c Iona was a 13 before they lost, we should be a 14 or St. Peter's was a 14 last year, so we should be a 14.

But we just don't match up as being better than the current teams on the 14 line. I'm actually nervous of dropping on to the 16 line. I know we absolutely do not deserve it but sometimes the NCAA has their own initiatives that they need to take care of and I'm sure keeping Loyola off the 16 line is not one of them.

I'm still just thrilled to dance, and I'd probably still be on such an emotional high when Sunday rolls around that it's hard to say disappointed but I'm just hoping we can avoid a 16.


 
InYourHead 
Freshman
Posts: 16

Age: 30
Reg: 04-08-10
03-07-12 12:29 AM - Post#124659    
    In response to LoCo2011

Personally, I just hope to avoid one of those stupid "first round" aka play-in games on Tuesday. It's especially stupid when sometimes its between 16 seeds, but other times is 13s or even 12s. Makes no sense at all. Way too many teams in the tourny already, no need to expand.

In all honesty, I am not a huge Loyola fan at all. Grad school is a completely different ball game unfortunately, not as much time to go to games, follow the team, etc. But I did watch all the TV games and went to several games too. I literally cannot contain my excitement for this though. I think campus is going to be electric next week, and being able to read about little ol' Loyola in my local newspaper is awesome. I even got my buddy to order a MAAC Champions shirt to wear next weekend. Loyola is gonna be his "no name mid-major" bandwagon for the 1st weekend of the tourny. Gotta love it!

 
loco09 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
loco09
Reg: 02-08-07
03-07-12 12:38 AM - Post#124660    
    In response to InYourHead

Dont worry guys there is no way we will get a 16 worst case is a 15 best case is probably a 14. Valpo lost tonight in the horizon so that may help to push us up to a 14 and Montana is struggling in their semifinal game of the Big Sky. Jerry Palm was on WNST here in Baltimore today and said he currently would have Loyola as a 14 and he is one of the gurus of the bracket so at the very least I think we are safe from being dropped to a 16.

That being said I just cant wait to sit down Sunday night and watch Loyola's name called but I do want the best chance for a victory possible.
It's Not Worth Winning if You Can't Win Big


 
Bang Bang 
Sophomore
Posts: 134

Reg: 01-03-07
Bracketology
03-07-12 11:07 AM - Post#124724    
    In response to loco09

Lunardi has this S-curve thing he uses to rank each team -- an espn insider feature from what I can tell. A friend of mine (same as DICKEY's) shared it with me yesterday and Loyola was the highest ranked 15th seed. With Valpo losing last night in their final and probably out of the tournament, maybe we see us bumped to the lowest ranked 14th seed today (assuming Detroit, who beat Valpo would be ranked lower than us).

Edited by Bang Bang on 03-07-12 11:08 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
loco09 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
loco09
Reg: 02-08-07
03-07-12 11:53 AM - Post#124742    
    In response to Bang Bang

Lundardi's new bracket came out today. He moved Bucknell up to a 14 and moved us from playing Michigan St to playing Duke in Greensboro. If that is the way it plays out i will be dissppointed becuase we beat Bucknell and won a better conference, they have no top 50 wins and only one top 100 win. Playing Duke in Greensboro will take some of the fun out of this experience. But things are still bound to change.
It's Not Worth Winning if You Can't Win Big


 
Bang Bang 
Sophomore
Posts: 134

Reg: 01-03-07
Bracketology
03-07-12 12:08 PM - Post#124746    
    In response to loco09

Agreed, and we beat them on their home floor. Bucknell (#1 in Patriot) plays their final tonight vs. Lehigh (#2), and they split in the regular season. A Lehigh win should help us out.

On the counterpoint, Duke may not have Ryan Kelly in the start of the tournament. Upset potential.

Edited by Bang Bang on 03-07-12 12:08 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
LoCo2011 
Senior
Posts: 399

Age: 28
Reg: 01-05-08
Re: Bracketology
03-07-12 12:26 PM - Post#124751    
    In response to Bang Bang

Other teams/conferences to keep an eye on:

WAC

1st Place: Nevada (probably in ahead of us, matched up with Iona in bracket busters but lost)
2nd Place: New Mexico St (gets interesting with them, about 7 spots higher than us in RPI.. but their SOS is much stronger)
3rd Place: Idaho (a team we should easier jump over, pull for some top seed upsets in the WAC)

MAC

1st Place: Akron (currently a 14 seed, but upset would be tough b/c the way the tournament is set up.. top seed gets a bye straight through to the semis)
2nd Place: Buffalo (74 RPI... we're 76 on realtimerpi so this would be a toss up.. gotta think selection committee respects the MAC more than the MAAC but maybe not with Akron (MAC leaders) sitting on the 14 line, and 2nd place Loyola sitting on a 15)
3rd Place: Ohio (similarly to the WAC, if the 3rd place team gets in, we get bumped up)

Patriot League

1st Place: Bucknell (this has been discussed already and I agree, kind of absurd that they would be ahead of us, but they are one of the better teams that we beat OOC. Although the more I look at their schedule, they didn't play anyone.. well should I say beat anyone.. best win is probably Richmond for them. Bucknell RPI: 85 SOS: 207.... We have better computer numbers but haven't checked the other computers.. the more I look into it, the more surprised I am that they are ahead of us)
2nd Place: Lehigh (definitely ahead of.)



That's pretty much it for us though... the 13 lines start to incorporate at larges.. with the only exception being S. Dakota St who won their conference tournament so they are definitely in. Don't see us jumping over any at-large candidates.

Edited by LoCo2011 on 03-07-12 12:30 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
InYourHead 
Freshman
Posts: 16

Age: 30
Reg: 04-08-10
Re: Bracketology
03-07-12 01:36 PM - Post#124762    
    In response to Bang Bang

  • Bang Bang Said:
Agreed, and we beat them on their home floor. Bucknell (#1 in Patriot) plays their final tonight vs. Lehigh (#2), and they split in the regular season. A Lehigh win should help us out.

On the counterpoint, Duke may not have Ryan Kelly in the start of the tournament. Upset potential.



Ryan Kelly is ugly and he sucks.

 
jdp 94 
Masters Student
Posts: 870
jdp 94
Loc: New York
Reg: 07-20-06
Re: Bracketology
03-07-12 02:43 PM - Post#124781    
    In response to InYourHead

I want us to play Georgetown.

Jesuits vs Jesuits for Metro DC/Balto Bragging Rights.

 
jdubs 
Freshman
Posts: 90

Loc: Rhode Island
Reg: 11-27-06
03-07-12 03:54 PM - Post#124810    
    In response to jdp 94

Recent Bracketology:

Lunardi [ESPN]: 15 vs 2 Duke (Greensboro)

Palm [CBS]: 15 vs 2 Michigan St (Louisville)

Glockner [SI]: 14 vs 3 Marquette (Portland)

Bottoms [Fox]*: 15 vs Michigan St (Columbus)

Huguenin [Yahoo]: 15 seed

*still using LC logo - awesome

Are there any others?

 
jdp 94 
Masters Student
Posts: 870
jdp 94
Loc: New York
Reg: 07-20-06
Bracketology
03-07-12 03:57 PM - Post#124812    
    In response to jdubs

  • jdubs Said:

Are there any others?



I found a Loyola (14) - Georgetown (3) match-up here:

http://dc.sbnation.com/2012/3/7/2851500/ncaa -brack...

 
loco09 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
loco09
Reg: 02-08-07
03-07-12 10:28 PM - Post#124903    
    In response to jdp 94

Lehigh beat Bucknell in the Patriot championship tonight. This could be good and allow us to move up to a 14 as Lehigh shouldnt be ranked above us.
It's Not Worth Winning if You Can't Win Big


 
jdp 94 
Masters Student
Posts: 870
jdp 94
Loc: New York
Reg: 07-20-06
03-07-12 10:45 PM - Post#124908    
    In response to loco09

I'm concerned that LIU Brooklyn may jump us. They finished off the NEC impressively (2nd year in a row) and played UNC very tough in the ncaa's last year. I see them listed as a 16 and I just don't see how that is possible.

 
loco09 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
loco09
Reg: 02-08-07
03-07-12 10:51 PM - Post#124910    
    In response to jdp 94

Our numbers are better than LIU. We have a top 50 win, we have better SOS, our conference is better. They may move to a 15 but they wont jump us meaning they wont push us back to a 16.
It's Not Worth Winning if You Can't Win Big


 
jdp 94 
Masters Student
Posts: 870
jdp 94
Loc: New York
Reg: 07-20-06
03-07-12 10:59 PM - Post#124914    
    In response to loco09

Montana is losing to Weber State, but I don't think that helps us either. In fact, Weber State appears to have a higher rank than Montana.

 
loco09 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
loco09
Reg: 02-08-07
03-07-12 11:07 PM - Post#124916    
    In response to jdp 94

Yeah Montana is the top seed but if Weber wins they probably just slide into Montana's spot maybe against a different opponent but it wont have any impact on us. Bucknell losing was big and if a lower seed can win the MAC it will help us.
It's Not Worth Winning if You Can't Win Big


 
loco09 
Masters Student
Posts: 523
loco09
Reg: 02-08-07
03-08-12 09:43 AM - Post#124965    
    In response to loco09

I found a website that compiles all of the brackets and puts it ina matrix so you can track your seed. The link is below. The average seed for us is 14.7 there are alot of 15s and a good many 14s. There is even one bracket that has us as a 16 and one has us as a 13. Basically it tells us what we already knew that we are somewhere on the 14/15 line.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
It's Not Worth Winning if You Can't Win Big


 
jdubs 
Freshman
Posts: 90

Loc: Rhode Island
Reg: 11-27-06
03-08-12 10:29 AM - Post#124968    
    In response to loco09

That long ally oop in the LIU Brooklyn game was pretty sick.

Montana had a ridiculous second half against Weber. Couldn't miss from 3.

 
LoCo2011 
Senior
Posts: 399

Age: 28
Reg: 01-05-08
03-08-12 10:30 AM - Post#124969    
    In response to loco09

that's before Bucknell lost though right?

or is it not? Really don't see Lehigh just sliding in where Bucknell was.. as some people on the other board are pointing out SPC got a 14 last year... and that's coming in as the 4th seed in the MAAC, must mean they respect our conference a bit.

Can't say I'd be disappointed b/c I still can't get over how awesome it is that we are dancing, but it would hurt a little bit to see us as anything higher than a 14 come Sunday now.

 
jdp 94 
Masters Student
Posts: 870
jdp 94
Loc: New York
Reg: 07-20-06
03-08-12 01:33 PM - Post#125001    
    In response to LoCo2011

Lunardi updated his bracket but didn't bump Loyola up. Still a 15 vs Duke. He just slipped Lehigh into Bucknell's spot vs Baylor.

 
Brian 
Senior
Posts: 300

Reg: 07-24-06
03-08-12 02:59 PM - Post#125018    
    In response to loco09

I can actually see Loyola being a team the big guys don't want to play. In those first round games, there's usually a lot of nerves. Loyola plays a very tough frenetic defense which can really rattle a team unprepared for it. It also can keep the score close enough to stay in striking distance.

 
jdp 94 
Masters Student
Posts: 870
jdp 94
Loc: New York
Reg: 07-20-06
03-08-12 03:17 PM - Post#125021    
    In response to Brian

  • Brian Said:
I can actually see Loyola being a team the big guys don't want to play. In those first round games, there's usually a lot of nerves. Loyola plays a very tough frenetic defense which can really rattle a team unprepared for it. It also can keep the score close enough to stay in striking distance.



I don't disagree, but I feel that the way the cinderallas win these games (or push it to the buzzer) is by shooting the lights out behind the arc. And we just don't have that in the arsenal.


 
baltimore baller 
Freshman
Posts: 26

Reg: 12-24-10
03-08-12 03:42 PM - Post#125026    
    In response to jdp 94

You are kidding, right?


 
LoCo2011 
Senior
Posts: 399

Age: 28
Reg: 01-05-08
03-08-12 04:57 PM - Post#125040    
    In response to baltimore baller

34% on the season...

Good for T-186th in the nation.

Olson's the only true threat at 44%

The rest follows so:
Cormier 32%
Walker?! 32%
Winbush 29%
Hall 28% (but he won't play)
Etherly 3-11 or 27%
Drummond 25%
Williams 24%

I don't think he was kidding.

 
jdp 94 
Masters Student
Posts: 870
jdp 94
Loc: New York
Reg: 07-20-06
03-08-12 05:45 PM - Post#125045    
    In response to baltimore baller

  • baltimore baller Said:
You are kidding, right?




Olson is our only legitimate threat, and if Fairfield can shut him down behind the arc I feel a Top 10 team will as well.

 
baltimore baller 
Freshman
Posts: 26

Reg: 12-24-10
03-08-12 06:18 PM - Post#125047    
    In response to jdp 94

True that stats stand for what they are. But we hit big time 3s WHEN IT COUNTS. Let's just use Winbush as the perfect example.

 
Brian 
Senior
Posts: 300

Reg: 07-24-06
03-09-12 09:44 AM - Post#125096    
    In response to baltimore baller

There are 3 kinds of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics. I would feel comfortable with Olson, Cormier, Drummond, Hall, Walker, or Winbush taking a GOOD 3. I think any of them are capable of hitting it at a decent %age. I think those #'s get dragged down significantly by the numerous times where we run a stagnant offense and hoist a forced 3 as the shot clock runs down. If we can get a good look in the course of a real offensive scheme, I'm good with those guys. Additionally, when Winbush or Walker hit the 3, it forces the defense to guard further out which opens things up more inside for Etherly. The flip side is, you have to recognize when the shot just isn't falling and don't try to force what's not working.

 
baltimore baller 
Freshman
Posts: 26

Reg: 12-24-10
03-09-12 10:56 AM - Post#125108    
    In response to Brian

precisely.

 
jdubs 
Freshman
Posts: 90

Loc: Rhode Island
Reg: 11-27-06
03-09-12 03:23 PM - Post#125145    
    In response to baltimore baller

Glockner [SI] upgraded Loyola to 14 seed vs 3 Marquette (Columbus)

 
jdubs 
Freshman
Posts: 90

Loc: Rhode Island
Reg: 11-27-06
03-09-12 03:28 PM - Post#125146    
    In response to jdubs

Lunardi [ESPN] keeps Loyola as 15 but moves them to South vs 2 Ohio State (Pittsburgh)


 
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