lawgun7772
Freshman
Posts: 21
Reg: 07-18-06
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03-07-12 11:58 PM - Post#124928
let me say that I am a CU supporter. However, I really think some folks have gone overboard and into irrational exuberance about next year. I like Smith and think he will be a good coach, but this season is the worst Ivy year since Jones' first year. I have always thought JJ was given too little credit, along with his players. I now think people are way overboard with how CU and its recruits, who are essentially unknown, are likely to perform next year. Everybody else is also trying to get better, and despite all the estimates I saw on this board this year about winning scenarios, we lost heavily. Even if many games could have gone the other way, they didn't. A break even year next year would be a good one. And I think that believing in much more is wishful thinking. For the record, I have no connections with any other Ivy. While I love CU supporters' passion, I just think we need to be more realistic.
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internetter
PhD Student
Posts: 1717
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-08-12 01:15 AM - Post#124941
In response to lawgun7772
My take on this board is a place to exchange thoughts, ideas and even some hopes. We do see facts hereon,
some discussions and arguments.
So be it! I read the posts mainly for fun, often learning something along the way.
If posters are guilty of unbridled exhuberance, fine.
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Chet Forte
Senior
Posts: 329
Reg: 03-02-08
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03-08-12 12:24 PM - Post#124989
In response to internetter
Response to Lawgun--with Agho and Frank we would have been 10--4 or 11--3.
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LionFan
Freshman
Posts: 87
Reg: 11-07-06
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03-08-12 12:46 PM - Post#124993
In response to Chet Forte
I would say with Agho and Frankowski, Columbia might have been 10-4 or 11-3, and also that the exhuberance may not be entirely justified. Tom Penders, in an autobiography, said that his judgment of Columbia was that the best it could hope for was consistent second and third place finishes. He left when he got to that level and thought he could go no further. That was quite a while ago, but I'm not convinced the same isn't true now. At least until Amaker leaves and we see who his successor will be, Harvard is a recruiting juggernaut that has outstripped the rest of the Ivies and is getting nationally ranked classes. Lin's NBA success will increase the H advantage (and admittedly might bring others in the league a few ballplayers who otherwise would not consider Ivy). I hope Smith can build CU to the Harvard level, but it will take a while while the bar may keep rising. It would require some strong winning seasons, improving the schedule, better press coverage and maybe a couple of games a year at the Garden or the Barclay's Center. It was hard enough trying to claw up to top with the P's to overcome, but Harvard's rise has made it substantially more difficult.
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skiba34
Masters Student
Posts: 706
Reg: 03-11-06
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Re: just a thought for my Columbia friends
03-08-12 12:56 PM - Post#124995
In response to lawgun7772
While I love CU supporters' passion, I just think we need to be more realistic.
Considering CU supporters are the only consistent posters outside of Penn-nation, I rather have an overly positive group than none at all.
Ultimately we have a good mix of all kinds.
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skiba34
Masters Student
Posts: 706
Reg: 03-11-06
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03-08-12 12:59 PM - Post#124996
In response to LionFan
I would say with Agho and Frankowski, Columbia might have been 10-4 or 11-3, and also that the exhuberance may not be entirely justified. Tom Penders, in an autobiography, said that his judgment of Columbia was that the best it could hope for was consistent second and third place finishes. He left when he got to that level and thought he could go no further. That was quite a while ago, but I'm not convinced the same isn't true now. At least until Amaker leaves and we see who his successor will be, Harvard is a recruiting juggernaut that has outstripped the rest of the Ivies and is getting nationally ranked classes. Lin's NBA success will increase the H advantage (and admittedly might bring others in the league a few ballplayers who otherwise would not consider Ivy). I hope Smith can build CU to the Harvard level, but it will take a while while the bar may keep rising. It would require some strong winning seasons, improving the schedule, better press coverage and maybe a couple of games a year at the Garden or the Barclay's Center. It was hard enough trying to claw up to top with the P's to overcome, but Harvard's rise has made it substantially more difficult.
good post
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Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 962
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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just a thought for my Columbia friends
03-08-12 01:49 PM - Post#125002
In response to skiba34
Here is the problem with assuming that Agho would have made a big difference:
His shots would not have been added on top of the team total - they would have come mostly from Barbour shots and from shots that were set up by Barbour.
Last season, Barbour shot only 17.6% of Columbia's shots when he was on the floor. Agho shot 27.6%. Barbour's assist rate was only 18.0, so he wasn't really setting up that many of his teammates points.
This season, Barbour shot 25.6% of Columbia's shots when he was in, and his assist rate jumped to 28.8. This is not only because of the loss of Agho, but I think there is compelling evidence that if Agho had been there, many of his possessions would have taken the ball out of Barbour's hands. So the question is whether Agho would have been more efficient than the possessions he would displace.
Edited by Brian Martin on 03-08-12 01:50 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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internetter
PhD Student
Posts: 1717
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-08-12 01:57 PM - Post#125005
In response to Brian Martin
Perhaps optimistically, I expect Agho and Barbour to adjust to each other.
Then, there's Smith re-working the O.
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Chet Forte
Senior
Posts: 329
Reg: 03-02-08
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 03-08-12 02:26 PM - Post#125009
In response to internetter
Agho would have drawn a lot of calls. Next year he will be the equivalent of a sixth year senior, since he also had a PG year. If he is healthy he will make us a contender.
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SomeGuy
Postdoc
Posts: 2155
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-08-12 02:47 PM - Post#125011
In response to Chet Forte
If that is the case next year (and I think it's a dubious presumption), it will be because Rosen, Wright, Mangano, Davis, Wroblewski, McNally, Belcore, and Bernardini are all graduated. There is no way that any one player makes that big of a difference in what happened this year, particularly one as inefficient as Agho has been in the past. You just don't go from 4-10 to 11-3 with one guy, unless it's Tim Duncan.
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TheLine
PhD Student
Posts: 1242
Age: 49
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-08-12 02:58 PM - Post#125015
In response to Chet Forte
Agho and Barbour played well together in the 2010-11 season. No reason why they couldn't do it again. I'm not too worried about it. A back court fronted by Agho, Barbour, and Lyles sounds pretty good. Having Frankowski as a sniper off the bench will also be a big plus.
The bigger question will be at PF. There are a number of options - Daniels, Rosenberg if he fills out some more (if not then he's a good energy player at the wing), maybe Coby or En'Wezoh.
Center should be a strength. Cisco is a good starter. It would be nice to see Osetkowski make an improvement leap.
I am not going to predict anything for next year. Too many things can happen between now and then.
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cc66
Masters Student
Posts: 473
Reg: 10-09-09
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just a thought for my Columbia friends
03-08-12 03:15 PM - Post#125020
In response to SomeGuy
It's college ball: players graduate, including, this year, some of the best players on the better teams. Next year's team will have two all-ivy guards (Agho, 2011), + Barbour (2012); Cisco as a senior; a maturing Rosenberg; and Lyles, who is inconsistent as shooter but lethal when he has his hot streaks. I don't think anyone on this board is saying that Agho alone is going to boost Columbia's record. Rather, the issue is whether the natural maturation of a team that successfully integrates Agho can, in one year, turn a team that lost 7 games by 26 pts into a realistic contender. As many people have noted, Harvard is probably the ceiling. But below that, it will be a free-for-all, with Princeton the leading candidate for second place.
Edited by cc66 on 03-08-12 03:17 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Brian Martin
Masters Student
Posts: 962
Loc: Washington, DC
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-08-12 03:20 PM - Post#125023
In response to TheLine
Columbia's offense was more efficient this year mainly because Barbour used more possessions more efficiently than Agho used them last year.
There is only one ball.
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TheLine
PhD Student
Posts: 1242
Age: 49
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-08-12 03:46 PM - Post#125028
In response to Brian Martin
Agho has always been good at sharing the ball. I'm not worried about it.
If Agho is consuming anywhere near 25% of the offensive possessions then Columbia could have a problem but I don't think that is going to happen. If Agho's possession % slides down to the 20-22% range and he is taking higher percentage shots then he should be an asset. This is what I'd expect.
Also Agho won't be subtracting from Barbour's possessions so much as taking away possessions consumed this year by Johnson and Crockett. Sliding Rosenberg over to PF - the real problem position - would also mean erasing Daniels' possessions for Agho possessions.
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mrjames
Postdoc
Posts: 3005
Loc: New York, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-08-12 03:51 PM - Post#125029
In response to Brian Martin
Columbia's offense was more efficient this year mainly because Barbour used more possessions more efficiently than Agho used them last year.
Bingo.
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TheLine
PhD Student
Posts: 1242
Age: 49
Reg: 07-07-09
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03-08-12 03:59 PM - Post#125031
In response to mrjames
Columbia's offense was more efficient this year mainly because Barbour used more possessions more efficiently than Agho used them last year.
Bingo.
Except Columbia's offense wasn't more efficient this year. And Barbour was also on the previous year's team so it isn't really true that Agho's possessions were replaced with Barbour's.
Other than that you are both on the mark.
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mrjames
Postdoc
Posts: 3005
Loc: New York, NY
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-08-12 04:18 PM - Post#125034
In response to TheLine
I have Columbia's offense as marginally more efficient this year, and Pomeroy has the difference as being a little more distinct, but I don't know of anyone who has the Lions' offense as being less efficient this year.
What I mean, and what I think Brian means, is that Barbour replaced Agho as the heavy possession user and did so in a more efficient manner. It will be interesting to see whether Agho can defer to Barbour as he probably should.
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TheLine
PhD Student
Posts: 1242
Age: 49
Reg: 07-07-09
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just a thought for my Columbia friends
03-08-12 05:10 PM - Post#125041
In response to mrjames
OK, we're in agreement. If Barbour's possession percentage goes in reverse then we're headed in the wrong direction. Columbia needs Agho taking fewer (and more efficient) possessions than he did in 2010-11. Those Daniels possessions do need to be taken off the books.
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Columbia Alum
Freshman
Posts: 33
Age: 27
Reg: 11-15-11
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03-08-12 06:14 PM - Post#125046
In response to TheLine
Important: Does anyone know if Agho is likely to be fit or even interested in returning next year?
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culion3
Sophomore
Posts: 160
Age: 24
Reg: 12-08-09
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03-08-12 08:58 PM - Post#125062
In response to Columbia Alum
agho will be back... also 100% agree with the premise of this post, if agho can come back and move without the ball/ defer to Barbour and not be a giant ball stopper(as he was in the past) we will be a lot better... If he comes back hard headed and tries to do the opposite of those things(as he did in the past) we will revert back to last year...
it is interesting I think we would probably be better without agho, unless agho really assimilates to the barbour/cisco centric offense... if that happens the sky is really the limit because he was an also an excellent defender and rebounder for a gaurd.
A lot really depends on what happens when he returns because we can not win consistently playing agho hero ball like we attempted to before his injury
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