puband09
Masters Student
Posts: 668
Reg: 12-19-09
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03-20-12 03:10 AM - Post#127088
I've been wanting to discuss this since the final Penn game, but have patiently waited until the season was totally over.
We are losing the high scoring Doug Davis and the hot-and-cold Pat Saunders
We add Will Barrett and Mike Washington, Jr. at Guard, Hans Brase at Forward, and 7+ beast Edo Lawrence at Center.
It seems obvious that Bray, Hummer, Barrett, and Connolly will start. I'd imagine Darrow might fill the last slot, but I could also see them putting Koon or Sherburne in there. Or even a surprise like Clay Wilson, Mike Washington, or Hans Brase.
Do you think any of the freshmen have ROY-type potential? What about the sophomores from whom we haven't yet seen much (besides Bray).
In some ways, I think we are losing less than Harvard (McNally, Wright) and Penn (Rosen, Bernardini), so I think we can make a run if MH can figure out to do about a shooting guard.
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SRP
Masters Student
Posts: 652
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-20-12 04:47 AM - Post#127090
In response to puband09
If Sherburne's healthy, I'd like to see him play a lot. The Tigers definitely need the defensive help and his offense was picking up toward the end. I think Koon will get a lot of PT as a swingman. TJ and the other guard, whoever it is, will have to shoot more than they have to date to take up some of DD's slack. It would be especially nice if somebody could learn to create a bit with the shot clock running down to bail out the offense when the bread and butter stuff breaks down. Clement has some fan support on the board, but I haven't seen enough to know why. Assuming we get Hazel back, he'd also be in the mix (and also stiffens the defense some). Wilson? Haven't seen enough (actually, any) to know. Mike Washington sounds great on paper, but a freshman guard on this team in this league can't fairly be expected to move in right away.
Barrett's foot is a concern; we don't know how it will heal up. There's also the somewhat enigmatic career Will has had so far to give concern. If he can play like he did against Lafayette regularly, then I'm sure he'll be out there a lot. If not, we might see a Hummer-Connolly-Koon-Darr ow rotation up front. But it's hard to say, because I have no idea what, say, Garbade, had looked like in practice or what his upside is. Edo Lawrence is tall, but the descriptions I read made it sound like a giraffe was the beast he most resembled--he's not a power player, at least not yet.
So the big issue is off-season improvement for everybody--who steps up and adds things to his game--and who can fill the known gaps we'll have next year: 1) fixing the defensive weaknesses on dribble penetration and rebounding and 2) replacing the in-system scoring of Saunders and the in- and out-of-system scoring of Davis.
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1LotteryPick1969
Masters Student
Posts: 762
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-20-12 07:04 AM - Post#127093
In response to SRP
What's up with Hazel? Did I miss something?
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umbrellaman
Sophomore
Posts: 173
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-20-12 12:15 PM - Post#127135
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
The problem is most of the three point shooting graduates, and there are mostly question marks at the 2 and 3 positions.
Going with Sherburne and Bray in the backcourt, and Connolly/Darrow, Hummer and Koon might be good defensively, but I would fear the Princeton streak of made 3 pointers would end. I can imagine Hummer improving his 3 point shot and playing on the wing some, but I don't think we want him there all the time. Koon needs to take several thousand three pointers over the summer.
So it comes to the development of Hazel, Wilson and Barrett - perhaps Washington to provide the 3 point shooting.
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1LotteryPick1969
Masters Student
Posts: 762
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-20-12 01:44 PM - Post#127141
In response to umbrellaman
I think SRP made a good point on the Pitt game thread: this is not as good a defensive team as we are used to seeing. The loss of Maddox was irreplacable on the defensive end.
As the season progressed, Coach Henderson found a partial solution with Sherburne. The loss of Sherburne probably accounts for a large part (of course not all of) the poor defensive performance against Evansville and Pitt.
Going into the CBI, there was a lot of talk about how Princeton was the best team in the Ivies (see the tournament thread). Without Sherburne, they clearly are/were not.
The secondary gain from the poor defensive performances will be clarity of focus for next year. Fortunately we have the excursion to Spain this summer to get a jump on the season (granted, without the incoming freshmen).
It has been a long strange trip this year, from the Wagner game (I was there and left disheartened), through the Harvard and Penn wins.
I think I have gained a better realization of how large a gap in size and athletecism exists between the upper Ivy teams and the lower BCS teams, and the low liklihood that it will lessen in the forseeable future.
Oh well.
Next year Henderson starts with the trust of the players (which he mentioned was an obstacle for longer than he expected it to be this year). He also knows his personel better. We should compete for the title next year, but after Hummer graduates, who knows when we will again.
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1LotteryPick1969
Masters Student
Posts: 762
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-20-12 01:55 PM - Post#127143
In response to SRP
So the big issue is off-season improvement for everybody
Based on the Joe Scott observation that there is little improvement from Jr. to Sr. year, I would project that Hummer/Darrow/Connolly should play about the same.
Bray and Koon should get better. I began to see evidence of better shooting from the mid-range from Koon over the season, but I would be shocked to see him take many 3's next year.
Sherburne has earned major minutes, and may score a little, but I don't see him as a "scorer".
To me, that leaves Clay Wilson as the big question mark for next year. Can he score 10 or more a game, and can he do so without being a defensive liablilty. Haven't seen enough to hazard even a wild guess.
Barrett is the second big question mark for next year. With his size and shooting ability, he should be a major contributer if his foot is healthy.
Clement, Hazel, Fabrizius, Garbade and the freshmen--who knows?
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Silver Maple
PhD Student
Posts: 1976
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: 2012 Rotation
03-20-12 03:03 PM - Post#127147
In response to puband09
We add Will Barrett and Mike Washington, Jr. at Guard, Hans Brase at Forward, and 7+ beast Edo Lawrence at Center.
"Beast?" Seriously? Down, boy. All we know about him for sure is that he's 7-1 or so and that his hame is Edo. "Beast" is extrapolating out of your data set. Furthermore, I consulted the BQC (Beast Quotient Calculator). It said that a guy who's 7-1 has to weigh at least 245 lbs. to qualify for possible beasthood. Edo looks like he's not much more than 210, and that's soaking wet and with full upper and lower intestinal tracts.
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1LotteryPick1969
Masters Student
Posts: 762
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: 2012 Rotation
03-20-12 03:09 PM - Post#127148
In response to Silver Maple
We add Will Barrett and Mike Washington, Jr. at Guard, Hans Brase at Forward, and 7+ beast Edo Lawrence at Center.
"Beast?" Seriously? Down, boy. All we know about him for sure is that he's 7-1 or so and that his hame is Edo. "Beast" is extrapolating out of your data set. Furthermore, I consulted the BQC (Beast Quotient Calculator). It said that a guy who's 7-1 has to weigh at least 245 lbs. to qualify for possible beasthood. Edo looks like he's not much more than 210, and that's soaking wet and with full upper and lower intestinal tracts.
How did I know this was coming?
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Silver Maple
PhD Student
Posts: 1976
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-20-12 03:16 PM - Post#127149
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Like a red cloth in front of a bull.
You may have expected something along those lines, but I'll bet I totally blindsided you with that whole BQC thing.
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1LotteryPick1969
Masters Student
Posts: 762
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-20-12 03:30 PM - Post#127154
In response to Silver Maple
It exceeded the WACPS (Wise a$$ comment predictor scale).
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penn62
Masters Student
Posts: 924
Reg: 11-27-05
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Re: 2012 Rotation
03-20-12 04:14 PM - Post#127163
In response to puband09
Don't forget Belcore. He's a huge loss for Penn.
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puband09
Masters Student
Posts: 668
Reg: 12-19-09
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Re: 2012 Rotation
03-20-12 06:42 PM - Post#127169
In response to penn62
He's taller than Jeff Foote and seems likely to be the tallest player (by far) in the conference during his time. Even if he doesn't put on any weight (which he darn-near certainly will), his height will be a huge factor, especially against Harvard which seems to have trouble attracting tall players.
I don't think he'll be an immediate impact player. But by his junior year, I bet he'll have worked out a ton, dramatically improved his ball handling, and be set to make a huge difference under the basket.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 2260
Reg: 02-06-10
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2012 Rotation
03-20-12 06:59 PM - Post#127171
In response to puband09
As with this past year, I don't see the freshmen playing much unless there's an injury. For the record, It sounds like Washington is having the best senior year while Edo Lawrence has the most upside (only been playing organized hoops for 3 years). But Hans Brase was deemed the "top recruit." That said, I don't see how he gets much time with Hummer, Barrett, Koon at the SF/PF positions.
As for the rotation, I see these guys 100% set in stone for 35mpg:
-Hummer
-Bray
-Connolly/Darrow (platoon)
And then you have Barrett and Koon definitely seeing heavy minutes at the 3/4.
SG is obviously where there are minutes to be had, but it seems MH and Co. have already tipped their hand towards Clay Wilson. I'd say he's the heavy favorite to make a Bray-like jump next year.
If Wilson isn't ready, then I'd like to see them try Sherburne at SG and have Clement be the primary backup PG. Jimmy flashed a nice scoring touch in his final Ivy games, and it helps to have an extra ball-handler to help TJ beat pressure late in games.
Of Harvard, Yale, Penn and Princeton, Princeton loses the least by far. Not that Doug and Pat aren't big losses, but compared to H-Y-Penn, we get off easy. So that's the good news. The bad news is that Columbia and Brown should be a lot better.
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SRP
Masters Student
Posts: 652
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-22-12 12:21 AM - Post#127299
In response to gokinsmen
The biggest potential for scoring improvement for next year I can see is actually Bray, despite his turnover barrage in the last game. He's shown a good touch from three already, had some nice drives against Evansville, and can post up and score on back cuts. If he works on scoring off drives and develops a good pull-up jumper he could have a big impact, because the offense opens up driving lanes.
Koon should a ton of threes this summer, because he's going to have to do more of what Saunders did. Combined with his swoops to the hoop that could be a pretty potent combination, too.
And for the record, I beat Silver Maple to the punch on the "beast" comment.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 2260
Reg: 02-06-10
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2012 Rotation
03-22-12 01:23 AM - Post#127301
In response to SRP
Yeah, I definitely expect a spike in Bray's scoring. But that's not really a "leap" to me since he's already shown the ability to score in different ways -- he just needs more touches, which he'll have in DD's absence.
I know Koon flashed that jumper during the CBI, but I'd rather see him develop some moves off the dribble. With his nimble touch and leaping ability -- that make him a quality offensive rebounder and finisher -- Koon should be going to the rim as much as possible. Meanwhile, there are other bigs who can shoot (Darrow, Hummer, Barrett).
Getting to the line is the key to staving off scoring droughts. Someone besides Hummer has to be able to do it regularly.
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1LotteryPick1969
Masters Student
Posts: 762
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-22-12 10:21 AM - Post#127321
In response to SRP
And for the record, I beat Silver Maple to the punch on the "beast" comment.
Yes, you did. But in a much more gentlemanly fashion. Not to be gendernormative, which I know Silver Maple deplores.
Bray has also shown a nice floater in the lane.
So we have the opposite of the earlier Douglas Davis problem. Remember that we feared (a few years ago) his scoring would suffer if he took up point guard duties. Now with Bray, will his point guard duties suffer if we ask him to score more?
So I'm looking to Clay Wilson for 10-12 a game at least.
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umbrellaman
Sophomore
Posts: 173
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-22-12 06:27 PM - Post#127382
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
If Bray is scoring more, Sherburne playing the point becomes more plausible. But I'm hoping for a breakout from Wilson or Hazel.
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TigerFan
Sophomore
Posts: 129
Loc: Silver Spring, MD
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-22-12 09:02 PM - Post#127388
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Why would anyone quote he should not be named on this board? I think Kareem Maddox's senior year should have Put to rest any assumption that players don't improve between their junior and senior years.
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1LotteryPick1969
Masters Student
Posts: 762
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-23-12 10:41 AM - Post#127420
In response to TigerFan
Why would anyone quote he should not be named on this board? I think Kareem Maddox's senior year should have Put to rest any assumption that players don't improve between their junior and senior years.
The observation attributed to J-- S---- has been mentioned before. I never heard him say it; for all I know, he heard it somewhere else.
It is at best an observation, and not a hard and fast rule. Exceptions can be expected infrequently.
I think Maddox is one such exception. I looked back about 10 years on Statsheet, and couldn't find another exception on the Princeton roster, although my search was casual and rapid. Perhaps there are others.
The coaches see the players on a daily basis, and even if stats improve, it may not necessarily reflect actual physical improvement by the player.
Bottom line: I expect Hummer, Connolly, and Darrow to be about the same players next year. Hummer might surprise me however, as he is gifted and driven. The points lost from Douglas D. Davis will need to come from someone else stepping up. Based only on casual comments from Henderson, and little else, I expect the points to come largely from Wilson and partly from Bray.
The looming question is who replaces Connolly/Darrow in the post the following year. Hummer will probably be replaced by committee. I wonder if we will ever see Garbade, Barrett, Fabrizius and Lawrence on the floor at the same time?
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Silver Maple
PhD Student
Posts: 1976
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-23-12 10:52 AM - Post#127422
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
I seem to recall Chris Mullin having a significantly better senior year than junior. I think we could also argue that Zack Rosen was a better player this year than last.
And don't forget Donald Moxley.
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