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Username Post: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:        (Topic#16784)
91Quake 
PhD Student
Posts: 1123

Reg: 11-22-04
07-17-14 02:50 PM - Post#171559    

http://blogs.dailypennsylvanian.com/thebuzz/2014/0...

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32683

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-17-14 03:56 PM - Post#171561    
    In response to 91Quake

It's nice to hear, but I don't agree with him from any kind of analytical view of what we have coming back and what is coming in. I'd love to be wrong, but I would be very surprised if they win more games than they did last year.

 
fdiapmf 
Masters Student
Posts: 590

Reg: 08-03-05
A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 01:44 AM - Post#171568    
    In response to palestra38

The guy with the supposed Philly connections who brought in 0 Philly recruits. "Harvards time is up", umm ok

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 10:07 AM - Post#171572    
    In response to fdiapmf

Your words, not his and not particularly obvious when you put quotes around them. This is what he actually said.

"It’s the ebbs and flows of the Ivy League. At one point it was Cornell, for the longest point it was Penn and Princeton. It’s just what’s the flavor of the week, I guess you could say. Right now it’s Harvard, but in my eyes it’s only a matter of time before it’s someone else, and I think it’s going to be Penn. I’m a little biased, but I think it’s going to be Penn. Credit to them and obviously to coach Amaker for what they’ve been able to accomplish, but I truly believe that every program has their time and this has been Harvard’s time.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32683

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 10:51 AM - Post#171573    
    In response to AsiaSunset

Leaving aside the issue of what he actually was predicting, why would anyone think at this point that Harvard is not going to continue recruiting and winning and remaining at the level they have reached as long as Amaker stays there. What Donohue did at Cornell (recruit 1 great class) is very different from what Amaker has done. Plus, Amaker has caused Harvard to make a serious commitment to winning, allowed him to recruit players prior coaches could not recruit, agreed to build a new arena, and is paying him (and his wife) exponentially more than Harvard paid its prior coaches. Given the built in Harvard advantage to recruiting, which we currently have no "tradition" to counter (as Dunphy and prior coaches could do when Penn had a dynasty), how can you be anything but pessimistic? I'm a Penn fan for life---will continue to buy my season tickets, but I see no way out other than to do exactly what Harvard has done and hire a coach with a big time track record who can recruit, at least initially, on his name. Polykoff can say that coming back with two true Division 1 players and a bunch of question marks may make us competitive, but how can anyone take that seriously? We lost most of the points from a 20 loss team. This is a long term rebuild.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 11:30 AM - Post#171574    
    In response to palestra38

What he said is not only historically true, but highly probable going forward. It's unlikely to happen next year. Even he knows that. But Amaker won't be there forever and if we stumble again this year, we may make our own change and that could create immediate returns.

You have a right to be pessimistic about the coming year. I happen to think there's a pretty good chance we will improve if we can solve the point guard dilemma and stay healthy, as we are a little thinner than any of us would like at key positions.

As neither of us have seen the incoming frosh candidates, we'll both need to see how things unfold. I know a couple Penn guys got a chance to see Antonio Woods last winter and were pretty upbeat about the possibility of him being an immediate upgrade.

 
SteveChop 
PhD Student
Posts: 1150

Reg: 07-28-07
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 01:08 PM - Post#171575    
    In response to fdiapmf

Class of 2015 recruit Jule Brown from Lower Merion HS credits Coach Polykoff for recruiting him to Penn.

 
LocusBB 
Sophomore
Posts: 119

Age: 52
Reg: 07-27-13
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 01:29 PM - Post#171576    
    In response to SteveChop

Coach P Knows more about this team than anyone on this blog. I also believe this team will be better than last years easily. The biggest key is if Tony plays team ball. The points will easily be picked up.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32683

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 02:11 PM - Post#171577    
    In response to LocusBB

By whom, and on what basis other than faith do you believe the 42.3 (out of 68.3) points we lost can be replaced and on what basis do you see improvement over the 75ppg we gave up last year. It's easy to say that a coach knows more than we, but he was very general and long term about what he was saying. So let's get the specifics---no one wants to see Greg Louis, Matt Howard and Dylan Jones to step up and suddenly be stars more than yours truly, but as the not recently seen Jeff always tells us, this kind of improvement is rarely observed in that if these guys were that good (or ever healthy in terms of Louis), they would have gotten the minutes last year.

 
LocusBB 
Sophomore
Posts: 119

Age: 52
Reg: 07-27-13
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 03:16 PM - Post#171581    
    In response to palestra38

I understand your statistical stuff, but it doesn't not work in sports. You can have great stats and it doesn't equate to wins. Just as last year everyone thought we was going to be so good because we returned every player on a nine win team because of stats. Losing players 8 win team is a great thing. Jerome held the freshman back due to loyalty. Addition by Subtraction

 
fdiapmf 
Masters Student
Posts: 590

Reg: 08-03-05
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 04:49 PM - Post#171591    
    In response to SteveChop

Thanks for the one recruit who doesn't sound exactly sound like the next program cornerstone in how many years?

 
Buckeye Quake 
PhD Student
Posts: 1601

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 04:59 PM - Post#171592    
    In response to LocusBB


Careful LocusBB. The cybermetrics police are coming for you. Haven't you learned by now that the only the only way to judge a player or a team is by computer generated guessing?

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32683

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 05:07 PM - Post#171593    
    In response to Buckeye Quake

As if I am a pure stat guy. But come on PP---are you telling us here that you are optimistic for the coming year? And can you recall a team that was good which lost 20 games and then lost 2/3 of its scoring?

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 05:41 PM - Post#171596    
    In response to palestra38

I believe we return around 55% of our points.

There are question marks for sure going in, but there is no reason to believe Matt Howard can't be an upgrade at SF and that Louis and Jones can't cover the 4 as well as Brooks did.

Point guard - don't know - but I'd love to see the freshmen step in and Lucas-Perry and Crocker not try to fill that role. Let them play some two and fill in in certain 3 guard situations. To be good, you generally need good point guard play which we clearly have lacked.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32683

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 07:27 PM - Post#171599    
    In response to AsiaSunset

My calculations are based on college-reference.com stats. If they are wrong, then I am ---otherwise I am correct.

And it's replacing Cartwright and Doc that are the real issues. Don't pretend that Brooks was actually the "4" for most minutes. But it is still asking for guys who haven't done it to now do it and I find it hard to believe that we can win more than 10.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 07:27 PM - Post#171600    
    In response to AsiaSunset

Checking in from my usual summer hiatus from all things Ivy basketball to express my deep concern that P38 is now being typecast as the advanced metrics guy on the boards. Does this mean that when I come back we won't be able to fight about eyes vs. Monte Carlo simulations? I even have a whole new bag of tricks to share!

Also, Penn is going to be very, very, very horribly atrocious next year. How is this even a question? Just enjoy Bags' last Ivy title from the 2014 10-game football exhibition and start learning the names of your lacrosse players.

 
LocusBB 
Sophomore
Posts: 119

Age: 52
Reg: 07-27-13
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 07:55 PM - Post#171602    
    In response to palestra38

It is not hard to replace anyone on a 8 win team that played major minutes including Cartwright and Fran. The team last year had no chemistry. They will handle the PG problem by committee. The rotation will be only 8 players not the nineteen from last year.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32683

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 10:34 PM - Post#171604    
    In response to mrjames

I just threw up into my mouth when I read this. Our good friend Mike James told it like it is. We will be horribly horrible next year. And there is really no daylight in sight. And while football is a nice excursion on a beautiful fall day, are we seriously talking Ivy football?

 
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
07-18-14 10:59 PM - Post#171606    
    In response to palestra38

Points on one end of the court obviously matter, but I for one am looking forward to losing Cartwright and Brooks' "defense." Not to mention Henry's "rebounding." (Air quotes intentional.)


 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: A bold prediction from former coach polykoff:
07-18-14 11:33 PM - Post#171607    
    In response to palestra38

For the record, I think the more advanced stats indicate that Howard and Louis playing more would be a good thing. Jones is more in the range where improvement into a solid starter is more questionable.

 
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