OneIvyOne
Junior
Posts: 201
Loc: West
Reg: 08-28-13
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12-09-15 04:17 PM - Post#196988
In response to mrjames
Do your numbers reconcile (for Harvard) that Miller is now the same class as Zena, Siyani now with Zena, and Myers is now with Egi and Chatfield?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-09-15 05:45 PM - Post#196993
In response to OneIvyOne
All members of an incoming class stay with that class. So, anything extra that Miller does during the rest of this season and next season will continue to add WS to the Harvard 2011 entry class not the 2013 class with which he will graduate. Myers will continue to count toward the Harvard 2013 class, not the Harvard 2014 class of which he is now a de facto member.
Also, to keep in mind, the numbers shown before are 4YR win share numbers. So, a team that expects 20 win shares from an incoming class should only expect that class to add five per year (and most likely, it will be slanted more toward the junior and senior seasons).
It's more instructive to think of the WS projections in broad buckets than as fine points. For instance, the model's read of the 2013 entry class is that basically the seven Ivies save Yale should all have roughly the same expectation from their junior class, while Yale would be a step behind.
Contrast that with the senior class, where Harvard was expected to be in a different eschelon than the rest of the Ivies and Brown and Princeton were expected to have very little. That's basically how it's played out, as the Crimson got a star in Chambers, two more starters in Cummins and Okolie and a guy in Steeves who apparently could have been a nice contributor if he wasn't injured off and on for three years. Meanwhile, Brown's senior class is Kuak and Princeton's senior class was basically just Brase.
It's those big differences where the model tends to show some nice predictive ability, while a span of a few expected wins either way probably shouldn't lead you to believe that one team is going to get more out of a class than another.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4911
Reg: 02-04-06
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12-09-15 08:52 PM - Post#197015
In response to mrjames
Just watched a recording of the Harvard-Kansas game. That was good composure and grit by the Crimson who had every opportunity to fold up but instead played some excellent second-half basketball against a very good team (albeit one that seemed a little too complacent in playing Harvard, especially once they got a lead). If the freshmen can have continuous in-season improvement I would revise upward my estimate of this team's potential.
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H78
PhD Student
Posts: 1458
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 01-06-11
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12-10-15 08:40 AM - Post#197095
In response to SRP
How is it that virtually every post you write adds value? Thank you for this information.
BTW, for any wanting to see this game's video, it's at http://espn.go.com/watchespn/player/_/id /2691383/
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jadwin
Sophomore
Posts: 191
Age: 74
Reg: 01-14-15
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12-10-15 09:40 AM - Post#197098
In response to SRP
Harvard's effort was impressive as you point out.
I watched the Yale game last night and once again, they were very competitive with a large program, Illinois. They have now held their own against SMU, Illinois and the first half of the Duke game. They had every chance to win last night after being down by 10pts in the 1st half. Sears was excellent and the bench contributed, especially Downey.
Somehow, it does not seem that any Ivy League team can close the deal against bigger programs with rare exception. The good Ivy League teams can play defense/rebound and compete but they do not seem capable of making the big shot when it counts --- not sure why. It would be great to start breaking thru the dry spell for the reputation of the league.
Yale looks very good on a consistent basis.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-10-15 10:40 AM - Post#197105
In response to jadwin
That depends on what you consider to be rare and what you consider to be a bigger program but...
Last year Yale beat UConn, Brown beat Providence, Penn beat St. Joe's, Harvard beat UMass; the year before Princeton beat Penn St., Harvard wrapped up six straight wins over BC and beat Cincinnati in the tournament; the year before that Harvard beat Cal and New Mexico, Brown beat Providence again, Columbia beat Villanova. That may also be leaving some out.
At the end of the day, wins over bigger programs are a function of opportunity and venue. While Ivy teams top to bottom have scheduled more of these types of games in recent years, we still play relatively few against multi-bid league schools and most of those are on the road.
It's always incredibly frustrating to lose so many close games (and we do lose a lot of them), but that's more a function of most of them being on the road than it is of an inability to close out close games. At the same time, averaging about four or so of these types of wins per year isn't anything to sneeze at and many more decently possible opportunities still exist this year (Yale at USC, Princeton at Maryland/Miami, Harvard at Diamond Head, Dartmouth at Stanford, Penn hosting St. Joe's, Brown hosting Rhode Island)
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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12-13-15 12:40 PM - Post#197280
In response to jadwin
I'm sure all teams can look at their recruits and get excited as they perform well in their senior year. Saw a lot of it last year on Columbia and Penn boards.
Although early, Seth Towns and Justin Bassey are averaging over 30ppg while Robert Baker Jr. is over 27ppg. All are double digits in rebounding. Towns last game he scored 37 points in 17 minutes to pass Trey Burke on school scoring list. Couldn't seem to find results for Chris Lewis or Bryce Aiken.
Wonder if there is an easy way to accumulate this info? MaxPreps doesn't seem to have much.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-13-15 02:21 PM - Post#197282
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
It is really important to keep your eye on how the recruits perform during their senior season. Especially I'd recommend following the state-level analysts because they'll see these kids a lot and can identify stock risers/fallers.
A recent example which has seemingly played out as the local analyst (Georgia Hoops) had Andre Chatfield ranked well ahead of Kyle Castlin heading into their senior years in HS. Over the course of the senior season, we heard a lot more about Castlin than Chatfield, and sure enough, by the final rankings, Castlin was ranked well ahead of Chatfield. It's hard to argue that the latter isn't how the actual production has played out thus far (though that's somewhat because Chatfield has been injured so much).
So while I'd recommend taking point totals with a grain of salt, listening to what the local analysts say can be very informative. Kids do change during their senior seasons, and it's worth monitoring.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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12-13-15 02:57 PM - Post#197283
In response to mrjames
Thanks for the perspective. For some reason Seth Towns is receiving more press and recognition locally than the other Harvard 2016 recruits. From what I read he's the top ranked small forward in Ohio, playing against tough competition. Wonder if he should be a 4 star as well.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-13-15 07:21 PM - Post#197293
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
He's still a 4-star at Future150 & was a 4-star everywhere else before committing to Harvard and taking the summer off from the EYBL circuit.
There was no reason to drop him to a 3-star on all the other sites, but that's what happens when you don't stay in front of the recruiting analysts all the time.
He's a 4-star caliber player just like Bryce Aiken, Chris Lewis and Robert Baker. I also think Justin Bassey is a darkhorse in this group. Pure scorer that analysts have raved about when they actually see him, but since he played in lower-level AAU circuits and plays his HS ball in a weak state (CO), he doesn't get the publicity of the other guys.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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12-13-15 07:54 PM - Post#197296
In response to mrjames
From what I'm reading Towns will certainly be back on everyone's radar. He is dominating what looks to be tough competition. I had previously thought Harvard still needed Lindy Waters (and still hope we get him). Waters is so versatile, sort of resembles Princeton's Bray. Towns is becoming a quite a scorer and shot blocker. Resembles Sears/Shonn Miller. With Siyani, Bryce and Tommy at the point and Corey, Justin Bassey and Corbin at SG, we'd be fine with Seth at SF and Egi, Zena, Chris Lewis and Robert Baker at 4/5.
I read only amazing things about Bassey, but he won't be noticed or appreciated coming out of Colorado.
There is a chance Harvard has 5 top 150 recruits plus Welsh and Juzang. Guess we'll know how many top 100 recruits we have once they get here. Regardless, a bevy of riches to appreciate.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-13-15 08:15 PM - Post#197297
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Waters was going to reclassify to 2017, and that move was a signal that Harvard had the inside track.
He ultimately decided not to do that and to take the Okie St. offer. So, he'll be a member of the Cowboys 2016 class.
Waters would have been a nice get, but I don't know that Harvard wanted or needed any more players in this class. If he had committed for 2017, it would have been useful, but Harvard's going to have a small 2017 class and they have plenty of options to fill it.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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12-13-15 08:43 PM - Post#197298
In response to mrjames
Too bad about Waters. I didn't realize he had decided not to reclassify. Looks like a nice kid and player.
Thanks for that information.
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