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Username Post: Where Things Stand        (Topic#18368)
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-18-15 12:03 PM - Post#195428    

A rainy morning in Panama has given me the chance to take a bit of a look at the first three games from a numbers perspective. I'll catch up with the viewing of games when I get back to the states, but there are some interesting things falling out of the early numbers:

1) The vitals are actually pretty good. Yes, the TO Rate is obscene, but the non-live TO Rate is still ~10%, which means that the TO Rate could merely be a function of having played two very good teams at forcing steals with a freshman PG. Since the live TO rate is more controllable by the defense and the non-live TO rate is more controllable by the offense, it's good to see that the non-live TO rate is in line with last season. At the same time, the non-live TO rate for the opponents has been obscenely low, so I'd expect that to kick up moving forward.

Aside from the TO issue, the offense and defense have played pretty well thus far. Harvard's getting a lot of threes and keeping oppts off the 3pt line. The defense is doing a good job of defending without fouling.

2) Luck hasn't been with Harvard thus far. The 3PT shooting should moderate to at least the league average (worth +3.7pts/100 poss), and the fact that Harvard has been so willing to space the floor and take a ton of threes is a possible sign of a positive step in offensive strategy this season. Opponents' FT shooting in the two D-I games has been worth an extra 7pts (or just over 5pts/100 poss) over the national average. Another strategy point - Harvard has reduced its 2PT Jumper rate to the national average, but has hit at a below average rate, something that should rise as the season goes on.

3) Causes for concern: There obviously have to be many of these, and here are a few:

- TMac cannot go through this season as Harvard's highest usage player. He needs to be at a sub-20 shot rate and maybe even a sub-20 usage rate.

- That's happening because... Cummins, Okolie and Chatfield can't combine for 60 mins a game and use just 10-13% of team possessions. Especially when two are on the floor at the same time. It puts way, way, way too much pressure on the offense to create. They either need to use more possessions or Harvard needs to put players on the floor that will.

- Zena has shown flashes of that breakout season I felt very confident he'd have, but he's going to wear down at 84% of team minutes. He's gotta be closer to 70-75% (28-30 mins per game). Also, he's feasting because Harvard has spread out defenses with 3pt shooting. If it moves away from that, Zena will struggle again against collapsing Ds.

It's very early, and we'll know more by the exam break, but I think Harvard will be better than I thought they'd be this year. When everything settles, this could still be a Top 150 team. It won't be able to compete with Princeton, Yale and (maybe) Columbia, but it should be a fun season with a couple interesting upside wins.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Where Things Stand
11-18-15 12:14 PM - Post#195431    
    In response to mrjames

I only caught the end of the game last night (when I finally got so frustrated with trying to listen to the Penn game that I gave up and just watched the Harvard game), but I came away wondering why Okolie doesn't force the issue more. It seems like he's got the ability to do a heck of a lot more than he does, and good things seemed to happen when he had the ball in his hands.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Where Things Stand
11-18-15 12:49 PM - Post#195437    
    In response to SomeGuy

He's at his best as an off-ball slasher. I haven't seen the offense this year, so I don't know where that fits with this new-look, three-launching Harvard team, but last season he was marginalized because the offense wasn't built around space and off-ball movement.

 
H78 
PhD Student
Posts: 1458
H78
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 01-06-11
Re: Where Things Stand
11-18-15 10:34 PM - Post#195499    
    In response to mrjames

mrjames, I'm most intrigued by Corey Johnson's participation and immediate impact as a freshman on this team. Not only is he hitting 41% from 3, he's also helping them spread the floor. Are these open look 3's or contested ones, by and large?

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
11-18-15 11:19 PM - Post#195501    
    In response to H78

I expect that this team will be a lot better a lot sooner that preseason forecasts. Harvard, even with its losses to injury and graduation, has more cards than any of its fellow Ivys. Let's face it. Amaker recruits circles around the rest of us. If he can coach these guys, he should win another title.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32682

Reg: 11-21-04
11-19-15 08:50 AM - Post#195505    
    In response to Tiger69

Now that's true snark. If Harvard loses, its coach (having won 4 titles in a row) stinks.

I equate this Harvard team to 2 Penn teams--the '79-80 and '04-05 teams. Both had graduated the core of a title team and were a bunch of underclassmen led by one key senior (Salters and Begley). They won titles because that senior was the glue. Harvard lost its glue in Chambers. I do not (and most observers agree) that Harvard will win the Ivy title this year. And I don't think, despite having been an early skeptic, that Amaker's reputation as an in-game coach will suffer. After 4 titles and SIX NCAA victories, he deserves kudos.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
11-19-15 12:20 PM - Post#195516    
    In response to palestra38

Harvard will have a very hard time winning the league this year. Their talent may put them in the mix, but I think (as I have all along since the end of last year) that Yale is the favorite. Agreed that Amaker's game coaching is fine. At a certain point, you are what your record says you are.



 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-19-15 02:15 PM - Post#195520    
    In response to SomeGuy

I think the consensus is that Harvard has enough talent to be competitive in stretches, or even in some games. However, there are fatal flaws. In the Ivy League, where the teams know each other so well, those flaws get exposed.

With very few (or possibly no) exceptions, Harvard can lose - or win - any Ivy league game. That makes for interesting weekends, but not a title. Title winners expect to win every game in this league, although almost none do.

I'm still holding onto my season tickets ... with next year in mind.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
11-19-15 03:28 PM - Post#195524    
    In response to palestra38

Didn't mean to sound as if I was criticizing TA. He has proved himself by now. Rather, I am skeptical of the stated low expectations for a program that has, for the past several years, gotten the highest rated recruits. Until that flow is interrupted, Harvard should be considered the favorite. Who seriously wouldn't swap squads with the Angry Puritans?

 
jadwin 
Sophomore
Posts: 191

Age: 74
Reg: 01-14-15
Re: Where Things Stand
11-19-15 05:33 PM - Post#195533    
    In response to mrjames

It is so strange watching Harvard play without Saunders and Chambers as well as Mondou-Misi. Saunders and crew were exceptionally good and tough minded and this group of players is a work-in-progress. They probably would have beaten UMass if they only hit a few wide open 3pt shots. Without Saunders and Chambers, they seem to play a little tentative. Saunders was ridiculously clutch.

It is weird watching them occasionally getting beaten on the boards and their guard play defense is not very good. It is hard to believe that one of the other Ivy teams will probably win this year. In all likelihood, Harvard may finish between 3rd-5th in the Ivies but they will be back with vengeance next year -- I'm sure.

Yale looks very good -- Columbia is probably pretty good -- Princeton is too early to tell especially without Brase. Should be interesting.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-19-15 07:28 PM - Post#195538    
    In response to Tiger69

I'll reiterate that I don't believe Harvard has had the best recruiting classes in recent years. Yes, the Crimson has been competitive in having the highest-rated individual recruit each of the last four years, but from the depth of class perspective, I'd disagree.

The 2011 class with Wes, Steve, Jonah, Kenyatta and Corbin was an unreal display of top-end talent and depth, but since, Amaker has seen his depth hurt by some cases of Byerly Hall saying no to kids that went on to play at BCS schools and other cases of finishing a close second to a variety of schools. Then, the 2016 class and Siyani's ACL happened, and I think a lot of folks are so focused on that potential that they're willing to have realistic expectations for this season.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-20-15 10:25 AM - Post#195560    
    In response to mrjames

The concept that Harvard will compete for the title this year overlooks the obvious: Harvard's point guard situation. If Siyani played, many were expecting a 4 team race, in large part because the parity and depth in the league this year led to prognostications that the winner could get by with a 10-4 record.

Without Siyani, the only way this could happen is if - similar to 2012-13 - a freshman point guard outperforms all expectations. Tommy McCarthy will be a nice player, but no one can reasonably expect he will be first team All-Ivy and play 37.8 minutes per game this year. Not a knock on McCarthy, just an incredible performance by Siyani, who remains the only freshman to be named first team All Ivy and was named the best mid-major freshman (by Yahoo).

There are ways to play to your strengths and ways to cover your weaknesses, but inexperienced and challenged point guard play is uniquely hard to overcome. It's sort of like winning without a football QB or without a baseball closer.

Having said that - yes - if Siyani was healthy, the mere fact that Harvard could challenge for the title this year validates the team's depth and TA's coaching.

In my estimation, if Harvard is not mathematically eliminated by the final weekend, TA is coach of the year.



 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32682

Reg: 11-21-04
11-20-15 10:36 AM - Post#195561    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I think you could say the same (if the team is not eliminated by the final weekend, that coach is the Coach of the Year) about everyone except for Princeton, Yale and Columbia

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-20-15 01:47 PM - Post#195568    
    In response to palestra38

I think you could say it for Columbia too. Getting that Lions defense to the level where it can win an Ivy title will be a monumental task.

 
whitakk 
Masters Student
Posts: 523

Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
Re: Where Things Stand
11-20-15 01:55 PM - Post#195570    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
- Cummins, Okolie and Chatfield can't combine for 60 mins a game and use just 10-13% of team possessions. Especially when two are on the floor at the same time. It puts way, way, way too much pressure on the offense to create. They either need to use more possessions or Harvard needs to put players on the floor that will.

- Zena has shown flashes of that breakout season I felt very confident he'd have, but he's going to wear down at 84% of team minutes. He's gotta be closer to 70-75% (28-30 mins per game). Also, he's feasting because Harvard has spread out defenses with 3pt shooting. If it moves away from that, Zena will struggle again against collapsing Ds.



I'm not sure there's a way to solve both problems with rotation changes alone. Even if McCarthy, Miller, Johnson play 35 minutes a game, if Zena is at 30, that leaves 65 minutes to come from somewhere else.

Unless Chris Egi becomes a capable offensive player -- on decent usage and for more minutes -- the only fix is for Harvard to find better ways to use Okolie/Cummins/Chatfield.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32682

Reg: 11-21-04
11-20-15 02:11 PM - Post#195571    
    In response to mrjames

Well, as you know, I agree with your analysis of CU, but every time I take a look at the Columbia board, they are predicting first round NCAA opponents, so it they aren't in it, I don't think they will be calling for a Coach of the Year award for Kyle Smith.

 
jadwin 
Sophomore
Posts: 191

Age: 74
Reg: 01-14-15
11-20-15 04:01 PM - Post#195574    
    In response to palestra38

I agree that the exuberance on the Lions forum is very high especially with Lo and Rosenberg. I remember the debate this Spring if Saunders or Lo deserved the Ivy MVP award. Saunders certainly deserved the award much to the emotional chagrin of Lo's boosters.

Time will tell but I believe that the Lions will be competitive this year although Yale with the return of Sherrod added to Sears, Mason, Montague looks to be very tough. Yale does not have a strong bench but they have a very mix of starting players with different skill sets. Sears will want to go out as a winner -- Mason is a player.

Next year will probably be a very interesting battle between a very seasoned Tiger team with Brase returning against a returning Chambers and a fantastic freshmen class.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Where Things Stand
11-20-15 04:12 PM - Post#195575    
    In response to jadwin

Jadwin, I agree thoroughly with your analysis, although it seems you believe the Brase injury has knocked your Tigers out of the running. Both Yale and Columbia have this year to stake their claim. Going to be interesting.

Saturday, March 5th: Yale at Columbia to close the season! Assuming Lo, Rosenberg and Sears have remained healthy between now and then, it could be quite a finale!

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 11-20-15 04:12 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
jadwin 
Sophomore
Posts: 191

Age: 74
Reg: 01-14-15
Re: Where Things Stand
11-20-15 04:20 PM - Post#195576    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I simply do not know if Princeton will be very competitive this year without Brase. They might be but his injury creates some height/rebounding issues against certain teams, Sherrod and Rosenberg. If another Tiger steps up (possible), they may well be in the hunt.

I just try to keep it real.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Where Things Stand
11-20-15 04:21 PM - Post#195577    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Harvard's 2015 recruiting class came down to Aaron Falzon.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba ll/player/...

With Falzon and Siyani, this would have been different. Some things are just beyond TA's control.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 11-20-15 04:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
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