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Username Post: Free Throws        (Topic#18700)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-17-16 06:37 PM - Post#201985    
    In response to PennFan10

That's not my point at all. At least another poster saw it.

No, you actually said DNH was hurt last year and so the fact that Zena shut him down isn't representative. That's exactly my point, Penn didn't play Harvard's frontcourt.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
02-17-16 09:35 PM - Post#202006    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Bradley,

I didn't say Zena would have not had an impact. What I said was he wasn't going to make enough of an impact in that game to affect the outcome. Penn still wins that game with Zena on the floor. He isn't 21 rebounds and 23% from 3 better when he plays. Those are huge differences that one player in that game simply isn't changing. Of course he would have had an impact.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
02-17-16 09:40 PM - Post#202007    
    In response to PennFan10

HVG

You didn't understand my post somI obviously wasn't clear. I was trying to point out the fallacy that saying Cummins was hurt and Zena dominated DNH last year is inconsistent. I personally don't believe a player who is on the floor has any excuse so I don't believe DNH last year OR Cummins this year makes a difference. That opinion is consistent. Yours is not.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Free Throws
02-17-16 10:17 PM - Post#202010    
    In response to PennFan10

Again, I think it's silly to project what an outcome "would have been" if certain players had played, primarily because there's uncertainty around individual outcomes. If Harvard replayed the game against Penn with the same personnel, it would win some trials. If it replayed the game at full strength, it would still lose some trials.

The more relevant question is indeed the impact that the losses had. Looking at the two primary areas that Evan and Zena Impact defensively (oppt 2pt % and oppt OREB % - and you have to use rates here, not margin, because margin is a function of rebounding skill plus number of shots missed, whereas rates on each end isolate the skill)...

Harvard's weekend versus Penn and Princeton produced its two worst DREB efforts of the season and two of its five worst 2pt FG% allowed performances of the season. That's strong evidence that Harvard's interior defense just can't survive without those two on the court. Offensively you saw two completely different philosophies from Friday to Saturday night, which indicates complete disarray as lower usage players were required to see what they could do to fill the missing possessions.

While I agree that a fully healthy Harvard team would probably be 4-4 in the Ivy, I would hesitate to point to certain games it would have won in retrospect and others it would have lost. In any given sim, it might be a different four wins than another sim.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 3615
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
02-17-16 10:58 PM - Post#202015    
    In response to mrjames

Mike - completely agree. I think PennFan10 is really disputing this:

  • HARVARDDADGRAD Said:
The next week, Zena would easily have throttled DNH, thus neutralizing Penn.



That is a very specific/definitive comment, and while maybe that COULD have happened, it was a possible outcome and NOT guaranteed (which is basically how it was represented).

If all goes well and folks are healthy, will be an interesting rematch.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
02-17-16 11:13 PM - Post#202017    
    In response to mrjames

That's a reasonable analysis.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-17-16 11:59 PM - Post#202023    
    In response to PennFan10

Hope the final game of the season sees the matchup of Zena vs DNH. Obviously, I do feel strongly that Zena will more than "make up" for the difference.

As for my "next week" prognostication, Zena returned last weekend against Yale to post a double-double (18-10) as Harvard outrebounded Yale. Yale outrebounds Ivy opponents by 10 per game - and outrebounded Penn by 16.

Again, I'm not criticizing Penn and the turnaround they are having, just emphasizing that a strong frontcourt performance against Harvard - especially on the boards - was meaningless given the personnel that night.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
02-18-16 10:19 AM - Post#202037    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Again, your selective analysis fails to mention DNH didn't play against Yale.

I have no idea what will happen in the March rematch. I do know it will have nothing to do with what happened last weekend at the Palestra. The first game may have been an outlier of projected outcomes. it wasn't just DNH who beat Harvard and it wasn't just 3 players with double double doubles. That night, Penn was better than Harvard at almost every position and Zena, no matter how superhuman he may be, wasn't going to change that overall outcome.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-18-16 11:24 AM - Post#202042    
    In response to PennFan10

Ah, I guess DNH would have made a difference?

We'll just have to disagree.

Read Mike James post on this again. For Harvard 2015-16, everything changes when Zena can't play. Evan's limitation compounded the issue.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
Free Throws
02-18-16 01:04 PM - Post#202046    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Yes DNH would have made a difference vs Yale, and Zena would have made a difference vs Penn. Neither of them would have changed the outcome. You can keep selectively changing the facts to fit your desired outcome but it doesn't change the reality.

And "everything changes when Zena can't play" implies it changes for the better when he does play. But then there are double digit losses to Dartmouth and Cornell that are glaring at me. Sorry, I am not buying what you're selling. And whatever the result come March 5 won't change history either.

Edited by PennFan10 on 02-18-16 01:08 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-18-16 03:01 PM - Post#202054    
    In response to PennFan10

Ok, so Mike James and Kevin Whittaker aren't enough for you? From today's Big Apple Buckets Ivy League Midseason Review:

In six games with Zena Edosomwan at least partially healthy, Harvard has only been outscored by .06 ppp; in two games without him, that ballooned to .23. That’s not a perfectly fair comparison — he missed two road games against top-half teams — but it illustrates how important the Crimson’s star center is.

The falloff was actually greater on defense than offense. Harvard’s defense isn’t as strong as last year’s title-winning group, but it’s still been above average this season. It relies on rim protection from Edosomwan, Evan Cummins and Agunwa Okolie, who have led the Crimson to a league-best block rate. (Cummins was also ill in the games Edosomwan missed.)

The Crimson’s offense is designed to feature Edosomwan and three-pointers.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
Free Throws
02-18-16 03:26 PM - Post#202056    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD


"Your Honor, I strenuously object"

Mike James said "I think it's silly to project what an outcome 'would have been' if certain players had played, primarily because there's uncertainty around individual outcomes."

I agree completely with this. What part of that don't you get? I agree with Kevin Whittaker too. We all agree Zena would have made a big difference. I still believe Penn wins that game Zena or no. Why do you keep pretending I am saying anything different than that?



Edited by PennFan10 on 02-18-16 03:26 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Re: Free Throws
02-18-16 05:55 PM - Post#202061    
    In response to PennFan10

I'm not.
I just think that Harvard wins with Zena.



 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
02-18-16 07:41 PM - Post#202064    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Yep. And I think they lost by 10+ to lesser teams with Zena in the lineup so you are suffering from 'irrational exuberance'

 
Stuart Suss 
PhD Student
Posts: 1439

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
02-18-16 07:42 PM - Post#202065    
    In response to PennFan10

PennFan10

You are embarrassing all other Penn fans.
You have stated your opinion and repeated it and repeated it and repeated it.

Let it go.



 
H78 
PhD Student
Posts: 1458
H78
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 01-06-11
02-18-16 09:00 PM - Post#202067    
    In response to Stuart Suss

Thank you, Stuart!

Voice of Reason = Stuart Suss

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3579

Reg: 02-15-15
02-19-16 01:03 AM - Post#202080    
    In response to H78

I work for the department of redundancy department!

 
CrimsonWest 
Sophomore
Posts: 106

Reg: 10-17-11
02-19-16 09:48 AM - Post#202086    
    In response to PennFan10

Let's hope the game in Cambridge is meaningful for post season hopes for both teams. Penn has a little more room for error than Harvard does, but both have a tough road to get to .500. Good luck to both this weekend.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-21-16 08:19 PM - Post#202358    
    In response to CrimsonWest

Harvard inches ahead of Florida A&M. No longer worst free throw shooting team in the nation!

 
H78 
PhD Student
Posts: 1458
H78
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 01-06-11
02-23-16 06:39 AM - Post#202482    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Tada!!!!!

 
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