hoopla
Masters Student
Posts: 486
Age: 50
Reg: 08-28-12
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02-25-16 07:43 PM - Post#202649
I saw a comment by mrjames--that the Ivy is going to be nasty next year. I agree with him. There will be more parity (leading to in-league wars), other than Princeton who will be the team to beat again.
Does Princeton lose anyone? That program is in unreal shape. I wouldn't be surprised if Mitch gets a big time job after this year or next.
Penn I imagine will continue to get better, though they will miss DNH. They have some good talent coming in.
Harvard will have Siyani back, with Zena, other strong cast members, and an unreal freshman class.
Dartmouth has last year's ROY and potentially this year's ROY, plus some additional good incoming talent. Who will step up to lead the back court?
Brown loses Kuak, but retains Tavon, Okolie, and Speith among others.
Yale loses Sears and Sherrod but keeps Makai among others... They will dip a little won't they?
Columbia loses Lo, Rosenberg, Mullins, Cohen... Lots to replace, but they are deep. Wonder if Coach will take a job elsewhere.
Cornell has outstanding guards coming back. And when they streak they can hang with or surprise anyone it seems.
What are the experts and pundits saying about next year? I envision Princeton at the top, then Harvard a step below. Then, a step below the Crimson, an absolute war zone.
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Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts: 247
Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
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02-25-16 08:44 PM - Post#202655
In response to hoopla
Yup i think it's still early but I would guess on Kenpom next year Princeton ranked around 35, Harvard around 75, Yale 125, Dartmouth and penn 150-200, Columbia and Cornell 225 and brown 260. Obviously many things can change not least a highly variable freshman incoming class to shake things up.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3995
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-25-16 08:53 PM - Post#202656
In response to Columbia Alum
I might remember you said that, CA and, if I do (Which Mrs. Bear says is unlikely) I will remind you. Yes Brown looses CK,a very big loss, but he is the only Sr. on the roster. Brown will be better next year.
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Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts: 247
Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
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02-25-16 09:06 PM - Post#202658
In response to Old Bear
OB nothing personal I assure you! Just a rough guess for next year, but I hope all the teams rise in the rankings because ultimately that gets better recruits to choose ivy schools. So I look forward to being pleasantly surprised by Brown.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-25-16 09:30 PM - Post#202660
In response to Old Bear
It's an unfortunate reflection in the state of things for Brown, but 260 is actually better than where they are this year.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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02-26-16 10:24 AM - Post#202675
In response to SomeGuy
Henderson has shown himself to be a capable recruiter in that he fits players into an overall plan. The success of the plan depends upon attributes in players' heads and hearts at least as much as in their size and speed. Regardless of the final outcome this year the team has been very good. Managing next year's team may be more difficult since everyone is back, including Hans Brase. Having a team that goes 10 deep sounds like a problem every coach would love to have, but sharing the minutes won't be easy. The best games in the League may be scrimmages at Jadwin.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-26-16 05:18 PM - Post#202687
In response to Columbia Alum
I think you are significantly underestimating Columbia. Meisner, Petrasek, and Coby will be a pretty respectable frontline; Cashlin will return to his form and productivity of one year ago; and there will be several PG to choose from, including Davis and Rodney Hunter, who sat out the year, but has apparently excelled in practice. Although we won't be in the very top tier, I still think we'll be a creditable team.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-26-16 05:29 PM - Post#202688
In response to cc66
I think there is a good chance you are correct. It is always possible that the high ORATs for the bench guys result from playing with Lo, Cohen, Mullins, and Rosenberg. More likely, though, the guys you mention roll right along with efficient play when the seniors graduate. My expectation is that Columbia drops, but remains a top 200 team.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-16 05:54 PM - Post#202689
In response to SomeGuy
I think Columbia is going to get decimated next season. I'll have more on this stuff over the summer, but history isn't kind to teams that lose a ton of high usage players, and it's even less kind when your defense was garbage to begin with.
If I had to guess at 95% confidence intervals for KenPom rank. Something like:
Princeton 20-75
Harvard 30-125
Yale 50-150
Penn 125-225
Dartmouth 150-250
Cornell 150-250
Columbia 150-250
Brown 200-300
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3995
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-26-16 11:04 PM - Post#202749
In response to mrjames
I respect your analysis MRJ, but Brown has split with Dartmouth and Penn and beat Cornell. CK will be tough to replace but he is the only Senior on the team. I think (except for Princeton, and maybe Harvard) most lose more.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-26-16 11:15 PM - Post#202757
In response to Old Bear
Cornell loses nobody. Penn only loses Nelson-Henry, which shouldn't make any more of a difference than losing Kuakamensah.
Dartmouth loses Boehm and a couple of rotation guys.
It's a young league right now, particularly among the weaker teams.
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umbrellaman
Masters Student
Posts: 476
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-27-16 12:48 AM - Post#202767
In response to mrjames
We have a sense of how good Princeton will be - everyone in the rotation will be back plus Brase and whatever we might get from the freshmen.
Regarding Harvard - the inside/out combination of Chambers and Edosomwan is a great place to start a team - heck just surround them with a few guys that can hit an open three.
There are two general questions the first is obvious which of the recruits seem ready to contribute right away?
Secondly, what can be expected from some of the upperclassmen? Myers, Chatfield and Egi were all 3 star or higher recruits who don't seem to have added much in 2 or 3 years. Is the size of the recruitment class an acknowledgement that they aren't the answer, or might we expect them to become more significant contributors?
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-27-16 11:10 AM - Post#202793
In response to mrjames
I don't see how Yale minus Sears & Sherrod, but admittedly with Mason could possibly get anywhere near a 50 on KenPom. And while I acknowledge that Columbia is losing a lot, I think that Smith has established enough of a pipeline so that between the maturation of some current players and defensive standouts such Patrick Tape who are coming in, we will be much closer to 150 and a record of .500 than 250 and the near the bottom of the IL.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-27-16 11:28 AM - Post#202794
In response to mrjames
If I had to guess at 95% confidence intervals for KenPom rank. Something like:
Princeton 20-75
Harvard 30-125
Yale 50-150
Penn 125-225
Dartmouth 150-250
Cornell 150-250
Columbia 150-250
Brown 200-300
Pretty big error margins there Mike. If I had to guess, I'd say the sun will rise between 3 am and 11 am tomorrow and set between 2 pm and 10 pm tomorrow 
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-27-16 11:52 AM - Post#202797
In response to TigerFan
Well, keep in mind that the ratings are more tightly bunched around the middle, so confidence intervals on rank should be much wider around the middle than at either extreme. Also, 95% confidence intervals are necessarily large at this point, as so many personnel things could happen.
There's a lot of work that I'd need to do before tightening those ranges at all, yet despite them being quite large, information is still conveyed there.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1888
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-27-16 01:11 PM - Post#202798
In response to mrjames
I'll cut you some slack for putting this out there so far in advance.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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02-28-16 09:22 AM - Post#202936
In response to mrjames
It appears that the Ivy League 2015-16 preseason media poll turned out to be reasonably accurate. First three teams in ranked order were Yale-Columbia and Princeton but it was very tight. It appears that Princeton may over perform relative to the prognostications.
As to the remaining teams, Penn appears to significantly over perform based on the preseason ranking. There is a case for Donahue to get Coach of the Year based on the talent level that he had to work with. His challenge will be working with a similar low talent level for the next year or two.
As to next year, the infusion of talent in one year at Harvard is something brand new for the league and is somewhat unpredictable as to how very good they can be. Dartmouth may well be a team on the rise. The return of all players at Princeton, barring injuries, is something unusual for a team that could finish 12-2 or 13-1 in the prior year.
We will look forward to your projections.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32812
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-28-16 11:15 AM - Post#202942
In response to bradley
I looked back at the KenPom preseason ratings---in October, they had Penn at 224...they are 251. Of course, that prediction was with Hicks and Woods. By the time of the Ivy season, with both gone, it's fair to say that Donahue did a great job with what he had. My recollection, however, despite the poor predictions for Penn by the media, most of us thought pretty much anything could happen with the bottom 4. Add the Harvard collapse and Penn gets to 4th without 2 of its best players.
I think the overperformance came from Princeton, which has improved steadily as the season went on and won all the close games--the true sign of a champion (no, in my opinion, it's not luck). Henderson should be the runaway Coach of the Year, barring an unlikely collapse.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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02-28-16 12:04 PM - Post#202945
In response to bradley
We appreciate the love for Henderson. This team won't collapse. It may get beat, tough road weekend ahead, but it won't collapse. Hans Brase is almost an afterthought now, but he was arguably the best Tiger returnee this season. He never got his gun out of his holster. No Tiger will get serious consideration for POY because the team has such incredible scoring balance and depth. Princeton usually has 4 double figure scorers but it's rarely the same 4 on consecutive nights. While Cannady has been an absolute treasure fellow freshman Myles Stephens has quietly become what Henderson calls "an elite Ivy defender." Henderson has shown great prowess as an in-game strategist. After the Columbia game Friday he stated that this group is "very hungry" going forward and that he sometimes feels that "I am along for the ride."
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-28-16 12:57 PM - Post#202948
In response to JadwinGeorge
The only game that I was able to attend this year was the opener against Rider. At that time I thought that this was a fun team to watch. Since then, with a few bumps, things have continued to get better. I'm still not taking anything for granted since any team in this League can catch an unfocused leader off guard. But, this is a great ride right now.
Next year is too far out there to even think about now. Too much is left (hopefully) to this season. So many things can happen between seasons -- will Brase fit in with the current team? Injuries? Coaching changes? Let's enjoy the present. 
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