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Username Post: The New Normal        (Topic#18786)
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
03-03-16 09:53 AM - Post#203197    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

I'm not saying you can't be successful going the traditional Ivy route, but had Harvard not suffered a key injury in a re-tooling year, Princeton may have been facing a Harvard 6 in a row. Say what you will, but in this era, 5 in a row is more impressive than when Penn and Princeton dominated and everyone else was terrible. Don't forget, Princeton is 2 plays away from being an also-ran this year. I give them tremendous credit, but I don't believe that if you played out this season 10 times, they would win more than twice. When you have Harvard's ability to get talent, those odds increase dramatically.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-03-16 10:25 AM - Post#203199    
    In response to palestra38

So, I haven't been paying super close attention to these boards recently... But when the hell did P38 start talking in terms of simulating seasons and probability distributions???

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
03-03-16 10:45 AM - Post#203201    
    In response to mrjames

That's the part of what you do that actually makes sense to me. What else have I had to do in the last 8 years, anyway? That, and there must be something in the water.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
03-03-16 12:11 PM - Post#203215    
    In response to palestra38

Does Montague disappear half way through every simulation?

Without Montague, I think Princeton wins more than any other Ivy if you play the season 10 times. That might not be more than 4 out of 10, but i think they win the most.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
03-03-16 12:30 PM - Post#203217    
    In response to SomeGuy

That's a good point, but of course by the time that happened, Princeton already had escaped disaster twice. That would not happen in most simulations. Columbia would win a bunch of them.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-03-16 12:53 PM - Post#203218    
    In response to palestra38

So... I went back to look at my feed from around the start of the Ivy season. Looks like Princeton was about 30% share, 20% solo, so you're talking somewhere in the 25% range to win the bid via a playoff and 20% outright.

The Montague point is a good one, given Yale's (lack of) depth. Princeton's odds would clearly have risen if Yale had to go its final eight games without Montague. Four in ten doesn't seem like a crazy guess.

The odd part in all of this is how 13-1 or 12-2 is almost certain to be the winning number. Coming into the Ivy campaign, I'm pretty sure 11-3 was most likely and that 10-4 might have been slightly ahead of 12-2. Some of this can be attributed to Harvard's injuries that collapsed a credible fourth option and Columbia's inability to steal a game or two. But it's clear, as well, that both Yale and Princeton were underestimated coming into the #14GameTournament, as their efficiency margins are, indeed, befitting teams that go 12-2/13-1.

 
dperry 
Postdoc
Posts: 2211
dperry
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
Uh-oh
03-03-16 02:33 PM - Post#203227    
    In response to mrjames

Speaking of Montague, for those who haven't already seen the posts on the Columbia and Yale boards, take a look. Let's just say that whatever the truth is, the situation is not a pretty one.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
03-03-16 02:48 PM - Post#203231    
    In response to palestra38

Well, that presumes that Princeton is going to get into a 50/50 late game situation with Penn. I think that's a game that Princeton wins 8 out of 10. We happened to get one of those few games out of 10 where Penn has a chance.

At Columbia, I think you are looking at Princeton winning around 4 or 5 out of 10.

Also, as mrjames points out, the odds tend to say that Yale, Princeton, and Columbia all should dump a game here or there, which hasn't happened. So if you played the season 10 times, I suspect you'd see more margin for Princeton to go belly up at Penn and still compete.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
03-03-16 07:14 PM - Post#203260    
    In response to SomeGuy

Two factors that have helped the Tigers this season that might be second-order in the sims but squeeze out an extra win or two are 1) having more scoring options than other teams and 2) Henderson's getting ruthless adherence to his play-the.percentages strategies in terms of what shots to take and refuse what shots to deny and concede, And he's done it without turning his players into robots,

 
mmp629 
Junior
Posts: 259
mmp629
Reg: 11-22-04
03-03-16 09:50 PM - Post#203275    
    In response to palestra38

2 plays away from being 11-0, too.


 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
03-03-16 11:01 PM - Post#203291    
    In response to mrjames

The loss of Montague was and is a big blow to Yale. A senior, fourth leading scorer, who gave Yale another very good 3 point option. Played very hard and surprisingly good defense -- held Weisz in New Haven with a distinct height disadvantage by fighting and keeping Weisz from setting up close to the basket as a point forward.

I would not be the least bit surprised if Sears and crew come together this weekend and win out the remaining two games. Sears, Sherrod, and Victor are seniors and Mason acts like a senior. Yale will probably be either very good or poor this weekend based on how they react as a team considering the Montague controversy --- I suspect very good.

Yale and Princeton have a 12+ point scoring differential this season against Ivy teams with only Cornell "Sweet 16" (2009-2010) surpassing them and Harvard (2013-2014) second --- two very good teams. I believe that Cornell had almost a 17 pt differential and Harvard 14 pt. Certainly, the quality of the other teams in the league will be a significant factor as to point differential.

 
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