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Username Post: 2017 Recruit        (Topic#18794)
pennhoops 
Postdoc
Posts: 2416

Reg: 11-21-04
03-09-16 12:07 PM - Post#203915    
    In response to Quakers03

More on Chastain/small schools:

http://suntimeshighschool sports.com/2016/03/05/hen...

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2182
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
03-10-16 12:18 AM - Post#204050    
    In response to pennhoops

He definitely looks like a late bloomer who is worth a flier on and pretty amazing how his recruiting has blown up in the span of days.

Looking at his highlight reel what you really have to like is his athleticism and size in addition to his scoring ability. Looks like a very good fit for what we want to do.

Unfortunately besides the quick mention of the offer, I haven't seen us mentioned at all... Any word on where we really are in the mix?

 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 552

Reg: 11-29-04
03-10-16 02:14 AM - Post#204056    
    In response to Mike Porter

His film reminds me of Marin Kukoc. Who we got to see very little of.

 
besnoah 
Masters Student
Posts: 592

Reg: 12-14-05
2017 Recruit
03-13-16 10:00 PM - Post#204379    
    In response to Penndemonium

One '17 I haven't seen mentioned here is Nate Reuvers who visited (unofficially, I think) last August and was offered at that time. Looks like he has seen a recruitment spike. He was offered by Minnesota this week.

2017's class is setting up to be really interesting. As everyone some of us remember, Penn bulk offered 3 NMH kids last year: Kellan Grady, Andrew Platek, and Jerome Desrosiers.

Grady now has a top 4 of Davidson, Butler, Nova, and Northwestern. Platek has offers from Miami, Penn State, Davidson, Rutgers and has rumored interest from Butler, Wisconsin, and UNC (who knows?). Desrosiers has a much more conventional offer list, but it appears Harvard will be at the top of it.

Where does this leave Penn? I have no idea. Part of the appeal of Donahue and his staff was the reopening of the NMH pipeline, but if all of the best kids from that program go elsewhere, can Penn compete for an Ivy title? I'm sure this won't be surprising from me given my predisposition to it, but I am really worried that the recruiting remains stuck in neutral.

This inability to move the needle is particularly disturbing given Yale's recent success on the trail. Penn is now arguably recruiting behind all Ivy schools except Brown and Cornell for the second or third consecutive year. It's hard to return to the top that way.

Edited by besnoah on 03-13-16 10:15 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
section110 
Masters Student
Posts: 724

Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
Re: 2017 Recruit
03-14-16 09:38 AM - Post#204403    
    In response to besnoah

? Certainly Harvard & probably Yale have more highly touted classes. Ours looks equal to Dartmouth's and above Princeton's unless Gadson is better than Brodeur. And better than Columbia, Cornell & Brown. We want better, but it isn't a bad first year for Donahue.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1040

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: 2017 Recruit
03-14-16 10:38 AM - Post#204406    
    In response to section110

Agreed. It will take some time to build the pipeline of recruiting. You don't go through a number of years of sub par talent and then rise to the top all of a sudden. Brodeur is a nice piece and a good start. We have a talented group of current frosh and a real chance to finish in the top half of the league next year. That will help

 
besnoah 
Masters Student
Posts: 592

Reg: 12-14-05
03-14-16 11:14 AM - Post#204411    
    In response to PennFan10

Arguments about 2016's class quality class would be more compelling if Penn's class was incredibly differentiated from other (non-Harvard) Ivy classes, it isn't. Like Princeton, Columbia, Dartmouth, it contains one recruit who is clearly the the prize of the class and several fine, Ivy prospects. In addition, the trailing classes for C, Y, Pr, D, H are much stronger than Penn's.

It does typically take time to build the pipeline of recruiting and that's a fine excuse. But Penn decided to retain their top 2 assistants from the previous era. How much new legwork still needs to be done there? Where is the necessary change going to occur to improve that pipeline? Is it just the head coach?

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4168

Reg: 11-22-04
03-14-16 11:31 AM - Post#204413    
    In response to besnoah

Who is the prize of Columbia's class? They look significantly behind Penn to me, mainly because of the presence of Brodeur in Penn's class.



 
besnoah 
Masters Student
Posts: 592

Reg: 12-14-05
03-14-16 11:35 AM - Post#204415    
    In response to SomeGuy

I had KJ Smith as committed, he apparently has not yet and I guess could conceivably go to a non-Columbia school.

 
Chip Bayers 
Postdoc
Posts: 3732
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
03-14-16 12:23 PM - Post#204422    
    In response to besnoah

Especially if Kyle Smith gets one of the open WCC jobs.


 
besnoah 
Masters Student
Posts: 592

Reg: 12-14-05
2017 Recruit
03-14-16 12:35 PM - Post#204423    
    In response to Chip Bayers

If Columbia's recruiting class is going to be the sticking point of the argument here, I am happy to cede. Penn outrecruited Columbia, Brown, and Cornell this year, awesome.

The team recruited at about the same level at which they had recruited over the last decade, 2017 looks like they're positioned to recruit at that level again. I think that's bad.

Edited by besnoah on 03-14-16 12:48 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1040

Reg: 02-15-15
03-14-16 02:37 PM - Post#204439    
    In response to besnoah

What is your data to suggest Penn recruited behind the non-Harvard's in trailing years? That's a subjective argument that's difficult to prove right now.

 
besnoah 
Masters Student
Posts: 592

Reg: 12-14-05
2017 Recruit
03-14-16 02:59 PM - Post#204443    
    In response to PennFan10

If I were being glib, I'd suggest my proprietary metric called "order of finish in the Ivy League." To be slightly more polite, mrjames can give better insight into that since I believe he's built a large recruiting database.

To the anecdotal, Dartmouth has won consecutive Ivy ROYs despite having a similar number of minutes to give to freshmen, Penn lost recent head-to-head battles against both Yale and Princeton (Dallier and Stephens) and all three of those schools have had more significant, recent success against HMs than has Penn (Boudreaux, Brennan, Bruner).

Again, if people need me to cede that Columbia and Penn are recruiting similarly, you got it. You win. Penn is currently recruiting around 5th or 6th best in the Ivies. I think that's bad.

Edited by besnoah on 03-14-16 03:11 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 3690

Reg: 11-21-04
03-14-16 03:20 PM - Post#204445    
    In response to besnoah

Not sure I agree.

Dallier may have gone to Yale under any circumstance, but he was not our first choice at that position. Matt Howard was Interestingly enough, Jerome's staff didn't aggressively pursue a couple of players who turned out to be outstanding Ivy players. One whom we passed on was none other than Justin Sears who the staff thought was flawed. There were others including big Cedric who was marginal academically and they didn't see him as a difference maker. And of course Lo was playing Prep ball under former Penn coach Chris Sparks. It certainly seems like we made some misjudgments, which may have been the bigger problem than simply getting outrecruited.

As for the others you mentioned, one must recognize that Boudreux had significant Dartmouth connections and that was difficult to overcome. Brennen isn't that good and wasn't a Penn priority.

I'm not saying our recruiting has been where it should be but I think Brodeur will be a star in the league and we all seem to be overlooking Matt MacDonald who might really help next year.

I'm clearly disappointed we didn't bring in another big this year, but there is still time between guys still floating around and the myriad of transfers, some who have surfaced with more likely to come with all the coaches being fired.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4722

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2017 Recruit
03-14-16 05:33 PM - Post#204458    
    In response to besnoah

Using my win share projection model (which I think I've shown on these boards before), in the seasons during the Allen era, I would have had Penn at the following rank by year (by expected win shares):

2015 (current freshmen): T-3
2014: 2
2013: 1
2012: 3
2011: 2
2010: T-2

Now, Penn has an extraordinary run of bad luck with many of those classes. They took some guys who were evaluated highly before being injured in HS, had some high major programs back off and never panned out in college. They've had some transfers. They've had some injuries.

Add it all up, and if I were to include dummy variables for teams, Penn would be the only one with a statistically significant negative variable, meaning that it just characteristically underperformed the model over the selected time frame.

I guess from that you might both be right. Penn still has recruited pretty well in terms of getting players it wants, but it's had bad luck/poor evals on those players leading to general underperformance.

I've been debating how to put a qualitative view on what I'm seeing on the recruiting landscape. Harvard clearly gets who it wants. It loses very few recruiting battles in the league when it can provide an immediate offer along with other Ivy competition. Beyond that, there's a clear rung of Yale, Penn, Princeton, which frequently are pursuing different targets, but seem to land a relatively equal share of common targets. Beyond that, if I had to gamble on a staff that could steal a kid from another Ivy, I'd probably go with Dartmouth and Brown.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 2870

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-14-16 06:56 PM - Post#204472    
    In response to mrjames

Mike-- what you attribute to bad luck could also be plausibly attributed, at least in part, to incompetent coaching.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4168

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: 2017 Recruit
03-14-16 07:40 PM - Post#204480    
    In response to mrjames

I do wonder if it is more than bad luck with Penn. I wonder if there has been an easily identifiable class of kids who got higher ratings than they should have b/c the ratings never caught up with a fairly serious injury that reduced recruiting interest. Patrick Lucas-Perry, Greg Louis, and Henry Brooks may all fall into this category.

I think the ratings get better each year, so the time when guys get overrated when interest dries up may be passing.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 9439

Reg: 12-02-04
03-14-16 07:56 PM - Post#204486    
    In response to Mike Porter

By the way, over the weekend Chastain led his school (unranked) to win the 1A state title. Just incredible.

Of course, that probably means Penn's chances of getting him are now next to nil, but what a story...

 
besnoah 
Masters Student
Posts: 592

Reg: 12-14-05
03-14-16 10:12 PM - Post#204508    
    In response to penn nation

Since Mike's numbers demonstrably disconfirm what I claimed I'll walk it back. I remain concerned that the talent level is the larger part of the problem for Penn and particularly am concerned about where Penn stands for 2017.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2182
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
03-16-16 12:57 AM - Post#204608    
    In response to besnoah

You can count me in on same 2017 recruiting concerns based on publicly available info.

 
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