SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-25-16 12:59 PM - Post#206544
In response to Buckeye Quake
Well, my guess is that Donahue strongly prefers to have a 4 who can step out and hit 3s. I also would guess that his preference is to have a guy at that position with more height than Howard and more strength than Sam Jones.
Brodeur seems to have some range, so it will be interesting to see how he translates at the next level.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-25-16 02:07 PM - Post#206547
In response to Buckeye Quake
Great. That's a completely different point. I am not actually sure what you are talking about now.
All I am saying is the players in your program that you are developing should be the ones that play unless you get a superstar that is better. You win this league with seniors.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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 04-25-16 02:21 PM - Post#206549
In response to PennFan10
That has almost literally never been true. Penn '93-95 started off with sophs.
Princeton -96 to 98 started with frosh and sophs.
Penn '99-00 mostly due to the juniors
Penn 02-03 due to juniors
Penn 05-07 started with the sophs
Cornell 08-10 started with the sophs
Harvard's run started with young players.
Talent plays. It's arguable that a 2* guy isn't any more special than what we have here already.
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Buckeye Quake
PhD Student
Posts: 1601
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-25-16 02:28 PM - Post#206550
In response to PennFan10
Ok let me clarify. I don't give a rats butt about how many stars a kid has attached to his name as you seem to. And I don't care how many years a kid has in the program. If you can play you can play. My opinion. Don't over think it.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-25-16 02:40 PM - Post#206551
In response to Buckeye Quake
Simple enough. I agree. I am just 'speculating' that this particular kid isn't going to be better (or shouldn't be) than what we have in the gym the day he gets to campus. I really don't care about stars either, not sure how we digressed there, probably my reference.
Jeff2sf- your last line is my point. He could be a seriously mislabeled 2* and if he can play, he will, but I am hoping our then Junior/Sophomores will be dominating.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-25-16 02:46 PM - Post#206552
In response to PennFan10
Specifically what I am looking at is AJ Brodeur, who comes in with at least as much fanfare as Justin Sears and judging from his game tape he will be very good. I am also looking at guys in the program like Max R, whose numbers in games he played significant minutes are really good. His numbers resemble Sherrod's as a freshman. I am not saying it will happen, but Penn fans would be really happy if those two became productive at the level of Sears and Sherrod. McManus and Dwyer could factor in here but we know less about them right now.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3775
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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04-25-16 03:02 PM - Post#206554
In response to PennFan10
The fact that Colin McManus basically didn't play at all last season makes it hard for me to be optimistic about him. I know that the bigger guys often bloom later, but even a guy who's not ready for primetime but has good future potential will start to see some semi-significant PT by the end of his freshman year.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-25-16 03:22 PM - Post#206555
In response to Silver Maple
Maybe. But with DNH as the primary big it was going to be tough to get into that rotation. You may be right though.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-25-16 04:00 PM - Post#206557
In response to PennFan10
I did something awhile back about predicting breakout players that didn't play much their freshman year (I forget the cutoff, maybe 30 or 40% of team minutes). The top two predictors of breakout performance was recruiting ranking and available minutes at the position. The past performance in the small sample may have been statistically insignificant, but if it wasn't, it was economically insignificant relative to those other factors.
I gotta find that research - maybe I'll just try duplicating it from scratch.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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04-25-16 05:23 PM - Post#206558
In response to mrjames
Mike, good luck figuring out the difference between Wes' sophomore breakout compared to the lack thereof for Andre and Chris!
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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2017 Recruit
04-25-16 05:40 PM - Post#206561
In response to mrjames
A few years ago I researched breakout potential of all Ivy players during a 7 year time period based on their Freshman year performance. The best predictor was the minutes they played Freshman year, provided they were moderately efficient. A Freshman who averaged at least 15 minutes a game with a 90+ ORtg had a decent chance at being an All-Ivy player, anyone with a worse ORtg or who played fewer minutes fared worse. Success rate was low for a player who barely got on the court Freshman year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-25-16 11:32 PM - Post#206567
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I think that's an easy one. Saunders played over 400 minutes as a freshman, and had an ORAT around 105. That's a pretty likely candidate for a breakout.
Chatfield and Egi both played under 200 minutes as freshman, and both had sub 100 ORATs. Egi's ORAT was down around the level that does not bode well for a breakout.
Not sure what Mike and TheLine found in their analysis, but I would guess both would identify Saunders. Like Makai Mason this year, I think Saunders was an easy one to see coming.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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Re: 2017 Recruit
04-26-16 12:10 AM - Post#206568
In response to TheLine
A few years ago I researched breakout potential of all Ivy players during a 7 year time period based on their Freshman year performance. The best predictor was the minutes they played Freshman year, provided they were moderately efficient. A Freshman who averaged at least 15 minutes a game with a 90+ ORtg had a decent chance at being an All-Ivy player, anyone with a worse ORtg or who played fewer minutes fared worse. Success rate was low for a player who barely got on the court Freshman year.
This is interesting data. I don't know how to find ORtg for players, presumably that's a KenPom stat and I don't have access to that data and even if I did I don't have the numbers prowess of several others who post. I would be interested, since this is the Penn board, on the ORtg for this years freshman given so many of them were on the court this season.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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04-26-16 12:14 AM - Post#206569
In response to PennFan10
College Basketball Reference also has it, although the numbers differ slightly from KenPom's (because non-D1 games are included). Search for "ORtg" http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/pennsy...
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-26-16 12:51 AM - Post#206570
In response to whitakk
Please find the formula that identified Kareem Maddox as a future star in the league based on his 2007-2008 performance as a freshman.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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04-26-16 09:34 AM - Post#206572
In response to Stuart Suss
I used KenPom numbers back when I did my research, but yes, you can use CBR numbers instead.
Stu, as you know we're dealing with probabilities. There are going to be outliers because the available stats don't paint a full picture. If I recall most of the outliers were front court players. Jason Miller and Big Ben were other big guys who underwhelmed as Freshmen.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-26-16 10:01 AM - Post#206574
In response to TheLine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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04-26-16 10:21 AM - Post#206576
In response to mrjames
It's more Occum's razor. Better players can force their way onto the court as Freshmen and not be awful, even if it's just a backup end-of-the rotation role. The players who can't force their way onto the court or who sink when they do aren't as good.
I couldn't find much of a correlation other than that. There was a weak correlation between success and better FT% as well as better 3FG%. Outliers were mostly front court players (longer time to develop?). Back court players either got playing time their Freshman year or didn't develop into anything beyond low level starters or role players.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-26-16 11:54 AM - Post#206579
In response to whitakk
Thank you. I have been enlightened. This is very helpful
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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04-26-16 12:47 PM - Post#206580
In response to PennFan10
One of the best stories I remember was Donald Moxley. He never averaged more than 1.5 mins/gm until his senior year, when he became 2nd team All-Ivy (I had to look that up). I believe he even played on the JV before being called up to the varsity.
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