Dial Lodge
Sophomore
Posts: 169
Reg: 03-08-07
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03-07-16 12:51 PM - Post#203678
I know there's been a lot of discussion about a second NCAA bid for the Ivy League, but I don't think that's likely.
This article said what we pretty much all know, but don't want to admit: the lack of wins over major teams will keep Princeton out, despite our excellent RPI:
http://thebiglead.com/2016/03/04/bracketolo gy-what...
***
That being said, what is Princeton's chance of making the NIT? This guy's bracketology for the NIT puts us solidly in:
http://www.nycbuckets.com/2016/02/nit-bracketol ogy...
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32683
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: NIT? 03-07-16 02:04 PM - Post#203686
In response to Dial Lodge
Unless you somehow lose to Penn, you're in the NIT. No chance for NCAA.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1871
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: NIT? 03-07-16 05:12 PM - Post#203695
In response to palestra38
New NIT projection today has Tigers up to a #3 seed. Have to take care of business tomorrow night first though.
http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketol ogy...
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-07-16 06:30 PM - Post#203703
In response to TigerFan
Just don't lose to Penn and you're in the NIT. Maybe a 5-seed though... Not sure what the guarantees are like to host under this new NCAA-like seeding system. Tigers would deserve a top 2 seed, but might fall to 5 due to hosting costs.
FWIW, the EBS would have Princeton right on the bubble, but Princeton is precisely the type of team (good RPI, bad KenPom) the EBS has missed historically.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-07-16 06:45 PM - Post#203706
In response to mrjames
I agree that Princeton may well wind up with a #5 seed due to not willing to host/fund a game at Jadwin. It is always perplexing that some Ivy League schools do not step up to financially support the program when there is the opportunity to be the home team. When you consider the Ivy League school's endowment, it does not make a lot of sense. It would help if Princeton does not draw a team with a number of "bigs" in the opening game although they should be very competitive as other teams are just not use to Princeton offense.
Hard to believe that the betting line is 16 1/2 points -- never though that I would see that big of a spread between the Tigers and Quakers. Donahue obviously has a lot of work in front of him.
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Kit
Senior
Posts: 380
Loc: Central Massachusetts
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-07-16 09:41 PM - Post#203718
In response to bradley
Back in 1999, they hosted against Georgetown, but that was before the NCAA ran the NIT, and added seeding. In two of the four years they were eligible for post-season play under Mitch Henderson, the Tigers stayed home.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-08-16 02:40 PM - Post#203774
In response to mrjames
Speaking of kenpom, isn't there still time for Princeton to get up to an historically high level for not getting a bid? Seems like a 143-17 win tonight would be great for the league's multiple bid profile.
I guess it could hurt Yale's seeding, though.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-08-16 03:37 PM - Post#203777
In response to SomeGuy
NIT sucks. Only justification is one or more games to prepare for next year.
Does ANYONE other than fans of the winner remember who won it last year? Three years ago?
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
Reg: 12-08-04
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03-08-16 04:09 PM - Post#203779
In response to Tiger69
NIT sucks. Only justification is one or more games to prepare for next year. Does ANYONE other than fans of the winner remember who won it last year? Three years ago?
I never have trouble remembering who won in 1975.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-08-16 06:35 PM - Post#203793
In response to SomeGuy
HA! KenPom has caps on MOV now (of course, you'll never hear about those caps from the KenPom bashers, but they exist). It would basically be impossible for Princeton to move up in KenPom regardless of what happens tonight. Maybe a few spots at most. There is far more downside risk in not winning by enough than upside potential in winning by a lot.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-08-16 07:10 PM - Post#203798
In response to sparman
Good point. That was back in the days when you had to WIN your league championship to go to the Dance and the field was a lot smaller. Now the Power Six hold the keys, reward all their even marginally qualified members to share the wealth, and only grudgingly admit non members to fill the 68 spots.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
Reg: 12-08-04
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NIT? 03-09-16 08:47 PM - Post#204005
In response to Tiger69
ESPN ran its most recent "who's in, who has more work" for the NCAA. All but one of the teams with the following credentials were listed as candidates for consideration, or labelled as "should" get in:
RPI SOS
A 35 188
B 38 165
C 40 145
D 48 275
E 53 178
F 57 199
Can you pick out the one who does not get mentioned?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-09-16 09:05 PM - Post#204010
In response to sparman
But C only has ONE Top 50 win and it was in conference. And it plays in a WEAK conference (that somehow managed to earn it a Top 50 win).
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
Reg: 12-08-04
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NIT? 03-09-16 10:57 PM - Post#204038
In response to mrjames
But C only has ONE Top 50 win and it was in conference. And it plays in a WEAK conference (that somehow managed to earn it a Top 50 win).
But as someone said:
"02-21-16 12:04 PM - Post#202302
In response to Kit
The important point to note here is that, unlike most mid-majors with inflated RPIs, the power metrics are also with Princeton. If Princeton goes 13-2, it will likely sit in at-large territory at places like KenPom, to go with what would be a gaudy RPI around 30. The NCSOS and overall SOS, which often also serve as disqualifiers, would be fine (in the 100s).
To keep Princeton out at that point would essentially be putting ALL the eggs in the Top 50 wins basket. That's an awful lot of weight to put on one metric when all of the others are at-large worthy, especially when that metric is poorly formed (no home/road adjustment) and not entirely in the team's control (can only play who will schedule you).
I have a sneaking suspicion that, if we got there, Princeton would get in. Otherwise, the committee would be admitting that the only thing that matters is Top 50 games."
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westcoast
Senior
Posts: 302
Reg: 03-08-16
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03-11-16 07:26 PM - Post#204230
In response to sparman
Columbia has accepted a CIT bid. I think that's a good sign that Princeton will get a spot in the NIT.
http://www.gocolumbialions.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB...
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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03-11-16 09:37 PM - Post#204251
In response to Tiger69
It should be a good experience for this team to hopefully play at least 2 games in the tournament. They need to learn to win against bigger teams and toughen up for next year. Miller needs to face good bigs and get into the gym. If they have a good run---confidence builder.
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Kit
Senior
Posts: 380
Loc: Central Massachusetts
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-11-16 09:52 PM - Post#204255
In response to bradley
With the number of 1 seeds losing in their tournaments, it is possible there might not be enough room to accommodate Princeton in the NIT. Other options are the CBI and Vegas 16.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3634
Reg: 02-06-10
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NIT? 03-11-16 10:58 PM - Post#204263
In response to Kit
It would be shameful if Princeton didn't get an NIT bid. Record and RPI aren't everything for the Big Dance, but 22-6 with an RPI of 39/40 should be more than enough for the Little Dance. As long as there are 3-4 non-autobids available, the Tigers should be yarn (i.e. NIT material).
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1871
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: NIT? 03-11-16 11:56 PM - Post#204265
In response to gokinsmen
FWIW, Tigers seem to be holding steady in the minds of NIT bracketologists as a #4 seed
here: http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketol ogy...
and here: http://bracketmatrix.com/nit
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: NIT? 03-12-16 01:16 PM - Post#204283
In response to TigerFan
Pretty amusing. FDU loses by 40 plus to Tigers. Beat Wagner in conference tournament final and is going to the big dance. Will not happen but think of irony if Wagner bounces Tigers from NIT due to good rule that conference champ automatically goes to NIT if they lose in their conference tournament. FDU will get hammered. Makes great sense.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3634
Reg: 02-06-10
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NIT? 03-13-16 09:15 PM - Post#204374
In response to bradley
#6 seed playing at Virginia Tech on Wednesday.
https://twitter.com/Princeton_Hoops/statu s/7091790...
Not a bad matchup. VT doesn't have the dominant bigs to punish our big weakness. Should be a good game. As disappointing as this latest choke job was, it's important that our guys learn how to beat major conference teams, whether in non-conf play or postseason.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1871
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-13-16 09:33 PM - Post#204375
In response to gokinsmen
Va Tech very tough at home but not huge. They play 8 guys, biggest is 6'10" 240 but only plays 19 minutes. Starters look like 6'7" (top scorer and rebounded at 15.1 points and 7.6 boards) 6'6" 6'5" (third highest scorer at 12.1) 6'1" (2nd highest scorer at 14.6) 6'1". They shoot 45%, 36% from the arc. -1.3 rebound margin. Of course they play in the ACC. Glad the Tigers played @ Maryland and @ Miami earlier.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: NIT? 03-13-16 09:37 PM - Post#204377
In response to gokinsmen
Buzz Williams, former Marquette head coach, had the Hokies win their last 6 games prior to the ACC tournament six pt loss to Miami. They play intense defense and at a very high energy. You are correct that they do not have a dominant big guy although their best player is a 6 7" forward. Guard Bibb can score as I was able to watch him play at Wake Forest. Virginia Tech will probably be a 6-7 point favorite.
It says quite a bit that the Tigers are a 6th seed in the NIT although their seeding was probably hurt by the number of conference regular season winners that lost their tournament game. Only way that the Tigers would have gotten NCAA tournament consideration if they beat Harvard and then lost the playoff game to Yale as well as either beating Miami or Maryland or either losing to Miami/Maryland but beating both St. Joe's and Stony Brook in the regular season. For next year, Coach had best schedule some games with good teams and win 50% of those games if they do not win the Ivy League Russian Roulette Tournament.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-13-16 10:09 PM - Post#204380
In response to bradley
Good Luck against Va. Tech.
Not to look ahead, but I think BYU is a good matchup. From what I watched on television when Harvard played them in Hawaii, the teams match up in style and size very well.
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umbrellaman
Masters Student
Posts: 469
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: NIT? 03-13-16 11:06 PM - Post#204386
In response to bradley
I think bradley hits the nail on the head. With a senior laden lineup - I think Princeton comes in as the favorite under the old system. You have Cook, Weisz, Caruso, Miller and Brase as seniors. You might figure the Harvard freshmen might have to adjust to the mental and physical rigors of the back to back games, but they could have developed by the end of the season to be a force in the tournament.
With the seniors the team should be ready early in the season, and they need to figure out how to schedule aggresively. We have to look at this as an opportunity with these seniors to get multiple bites at the apple - not just one that could be lost by an ill timed injury, Saturday night refs or a "choke job" on the road.
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mmp629
Junior
Posts: 259
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-14-16 01:37 PM - Post#204430
In response to umbrellaman
Speaking as a fan, I enjoy any post-season play. Go Tigers!
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4894
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-14-16 06:40 PM - Post#204469
In response to mmp629
As long as the Tigers are mentally prepared for the defensive intensity level of a Buzz Williams team, they should be very competitive. It will be interesting to see how much the Hokies try to extend out to the arc to deny trey attempts.
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