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Username Post: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut        (Topic#19230)
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4724

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
08-19-16 02:11 PM - Post#209752    

Figured I'd get the conversation going before we find out which handful of All-Ivy caliber folks are going to miss the season and render all of these projections moot.

For me, the era of doing the detailed projections is over, but I do have a simple, top-level model that can help provide a directional understanding. The top-level model uses past trends in ORAT and DRAT by league and team along with the continuity of the roster year-over-year to drive to separate offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRankNatl
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 105.3 106.8 0.464 173
Cornell Ivy 101.6 105.6 0.403 196
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 105.4 98.2 0.673 97
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 104.3 99.6 0.617 115

These are really only starting points, best fit to those teams that have had pretty normal year-over-year transitions. I feel pretty good about teams like Princeton, Dartmouth, Cornell, Columbia and Brown, but Harvard, Penn and Yale might be tougher to nail down exactly, as each of those schools have brought in better than the usual non-BCS options to fill holes.

Regardless this is a decent starting point, which would suggest that our first Ivy tournament will likely involve a Harvard-Yale first round game and Princeton versus pretty much any of those other teams. It also predicts that we'll have our first average Pythag over .5000 as a league, which would put us in contention to sneak out of the teens into 11th or 12th.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3114

Reg: 02-04-06
08-19-16 07:51 PM - Post#209760    
    In response to mrjames

Hope Princeton lives up to or exceeds the hype.,At least it's based on lots of proven performers, some of them young. I feel like they had harmful variance last season on both ends of the floor, perhaps not surprising on offense,given all the threes, but disturbing on defense where they just collapsed for key stretches. Their resilience seemed much better last season than in previous years when things went pear-shaped, but not quite to the point of having that clear championship look that gives a fan gut-level confidence. It would be nice to see some evolution there.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4724

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
08-19-16 09:19 PM - Post#209762    
    In response to SRP

You want hype? Check out Bart Torvik'a site:

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Princeton&...

I respect his work/methodology and while I think this is maybe a bit high, with what Princeton has coming back and how it performed last year, it's certainly possible...

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4724

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-21-16 09:13 AM - Post#210640    
    In response to mrjames

So far, here's how the preseason annuals have come out as well:

Athlon
1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Penn
5. Columbia
6. Cornell
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

Lindy's
1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Penn
5. Cornell
6. Columbia
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

Bart Torvik
1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Columbia
5. Penn
6. Cornell
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 816

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
09-21-16 09:35 AM - Post#210642    
    In response to mrjames

Looks like there are three primary competitions this season:

First, which of Columbia, Cornell, Penn and possibly Dartmouth will finish 4th and make the playoff?

Second, although Princeton rightfully is the favorite for the regular season title, can Amaker coach and Chambers/Edosomwan lead Harvard's incoming class to a tournament title?

Finally, can Princeton and Harvard dominate the league and fare well enough OOC to warrant a second NCAA bid?

Did I miss anything?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 09-21-16 09:35 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 487

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
09-21-16 10:16 AM - Post#210644    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Your comments appear logical and reasonable although there is normally a surprise or two, i.e. injuries, performance etc.

I believe that one of these two teams will surprise for a playoff spot -- Cornell or Dartmouth. Coach Earl will get the Cornell scorers, Hatter and Morgan, to play in a system and share the ball. Dartmouth has two very talented players. Also, it would not shock me if Yale competes for the League title with Makai Mason. He is one of the few Ivy League players that can score on his own as witnessed with his amazing one on one play against Baylor in the NCAA tournament.

The last wild card might be how good Harvard will be with the talent infusion. If the freshmen are so talented and mature, who knows how good they will be this year with Chambers and Edosomwan? For Princeton, will Brase recover from injury and give another big body against Harvard and the other Ivies as well against big teams if they get into post-season tournament play?

I am skeptical about two teams going to the Big Dance as well as the merits of the Ivy League tournament but time will tell if it was the correct decision.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 816

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-21-16 10:47 AM - Post#210646    
    In response to bradley

Good points bradley. Yale should be able to compete with Princeton and Harvard. Cornell has the two most electric scorers in the league, and Dartmouth has two returning ROY and a nice freshman class.

I believe no one other than Columbia can compete in the frontcourt with Harvard and Princeton. If either Brase or Siyani are not healthy, that would certainly affect things. On the other hand, both teams are the deepest in the league.

Of course, when we get to the tournament, almost anything can happen on any given night - especially in the Palestra.

As for the NCAA committee, recent history seems to confirm that the selection committee (and the NCAA) want to give out as few spots as possible to mid-majors. If that's true, then our tournament may be for naught (and a thorn in their side). As others have said, if Princeton has an incredible season but loses the tournament it could happen. How about if Harvard gets a commitment from Carter or Bamba? Might put Harvard in the spotlight, even this season.




 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2046

Reg: 11-23-04
09-21-16 10:58 AM - Post#210650    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Tournament still sucks - even if League gets 2nd bid for Tourney winner that did not win season championship.

Any word on Harvard "Lite" one and done prospects?

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4724

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-21-16 11:56 AM - Post#210653    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Yale will be just fine in the frontcourt - maybe not deep, but Bruner + Downey/Reynolds should be formidable.

History isn't favorable for Harvard catching Princeton. Unless Harvard's recruiting class is drastically underrated (which would be hard), there aren't any examples of a non-Top-100 team getting a No. 10ish class and hopping any higher than say 60-80s. That would put them at a solid betting disadvantage against a Princeton team that should sit comfortably in the 30-50 range all season. Now, you could argue that the Siyani angle is unique, but... I'm not so sure I buy it.

 
Okoro Dude 
Junior
Posts: 265

Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
09-21-16 12:57 PM - Post#210655    
    In response to mrjames

I buy the Siyani angle if he return to being the player shooting 40%+ from three and not the one shooting 36% from the field. The first one is almost impossible to guard.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 816

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-21-16 01:12 PM - Post#210658    
    In response to Okoro Dude

I think last year's team would have been ranked much higher with Siyani, but probably still sub-100. However, having a top tier senior point guard, senior center, two three point shooters and a nationally ranked recruiting class could fit together quite nicely.

 
ahg46 
Freshman
Posts: 7

Age: 70
Reg: 10-06-15
09-21-16 01:31 PM - Post#210660    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

1-Princeton
2-Cornell
3-Harvard
4-Penn
5-Dartmouth
6-Yale
7-Columbia
8-Brown

Harvard will improve dramatically from start to finish and challenge for the 2 spot. Penn, Dart and Yale may finish in a 3 way. Oh sorry that is Yale in a 3 way and the threesome in a tie.


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4169

Reg: 11-22-04
09-21-16 01:40 PM - Post#210661    
    In response to Tiger69

I know I've made this point before, but . . . I think there are scenarios where the tournament winner is more deserving than the regular season winner. For example, Harvard goes 13-1 and Princeton goes 12-2. Harvard loses in the first round of the playoff. Princeton wins the conference tournament. Now Princeton is 14-2 and Harvard is 13-2.

To me, the more basketball games we play against each other, the better the chances that we get the best team in the NCAAs. Once in a blue moon there will be an egregious tourney winner -- say if Columbia goes 6-8 to finish 4th this year, and then wins the conference tourney. But the odds of that probably aren't much different at this point in the season than they would be of a .500ish level Columbia team winning a bunch of close games and sneaking away with the league regular season (i.e., very low).

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 816

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-21-16 02:16 PM - Post#210662    
    In response to SomeGuy

Your concept of the more games played against 'each other' only works if all the games count equally. If the final game is determinative, there is an increased chance that game is an outlier.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 487

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
09-21-16 02:55 PM - Post#210664    
    In response to Okoro Dude

It has been puzzling looking at the decline in Chambers shooting other than free throws from his freshmen year. Perhaps with time off due to the injury, he has regained his shooting form. I must admit that he does not create fear with his offensive game as he does not create his own shots like Makai Mason.

His obvious strengths are leadership and passing which will be well utilized by Amaker for Zena's benefit and the freshmen players. He will probably be Amaker's replacement when Amaker retires at a ripe old age. It might be Chambers against Weisz 15 years from now.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4724

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-21-16 03:12 PM - Post#210666    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I provided most of my empirical work and accompanying thoughts on episode 2 of this season's podcast, but I can summarize here:

In the current Ivy landscape, the difference between the objective odds of winning the NCAA bid via the 14-Game Tournament or via the conference tournament is minimal. Back when there was one really good team and a bunch of awful teams, there was a BIG risk in having the conference tournament. Not anymore, though. We have 2-3 teams (sometimes more) every year that are good enough to play competitively with NCAA-caliber, big conference programs. I mean, last year's four-seed would have been Harvard, which beat bubble team BYU and played Kansas and Oklahoma extremely tight.

As the league continues to strengthen, we could potentially have a team left out of the four-team tourney that could have avoided the 16-line in the NCAAs.

I'd be more jazzed about this whole thing if we could have gotten more MTEs and not given up a non-conf game, etc, but if there was ever a time to go this route, the time is now...

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4724

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-21-16 03:30 PM - Post#210669    
    In response to bradley

Siyani Chambers shot 30% at the rim in 2014-15 and took roughly 20% of his attempts from there.

This was a team without really any perimeter threats that season and defenses just packed it in. Shooting 30% at the rim is so bad - basically Harvard FT% last year level bad.

Siyani still takes way too many long twos for a guy who shoots mid-30s from that range, but I'd wager his eFG% will rise just from shooting much better at the rim with more spacing this season. The dirty little secret about Siyani is that his numbers in end-of-shot-clock situations (those that Curry was so, so good at) are pretty terrible, so a more dynamic offensive team (i.e. different ways of attacking) should help his numbers rise.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3114

Reg: 02-04-06
09-21-16 08:30 PM - Post#210687    
    In response to mrjames

Curry had that knack for getting space for a good look in just a couple of seconds.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 816

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-21-16 09:41 PM - Post#210689    
    In response to SRP


1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Columbia
5. Cornell
6. Dartmouth
7. Penn
8. Brown

Harvard wins tournament. Thanks guys for the second chance!


 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1040

Reg: 02-15-15
09-22-16 04:44 AM - Post#210698    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

1. Princeton
2. Yale
3. Penn
4. Dartmouth
5. Harvard
6. Columbia
7. Cornell
8. Brown

 
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