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Username Post: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut        (Topic#19230)
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
09-22-16 09:31 AM - Post#210701    
    In response to PennFan10

[PennFan10] In the scramble for that 4th spot, what your rationale for Dartmouth taking it? Don't get me wrong I LIKE IT!... but on paper it's hard placing Harvard out of the mix with healthy Chambers.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4127

Reg: 11-22-04
09-22-16 10:08 AM - Post#210702    
    In response to PennFan10

As much as I'd like to see it, it is very hard for me to imagine Penn or Dartmouth (let alone both) leap-frogging Harvard this year. While the standings were close last year, overall I think Harvard was considerably better than teams 5-8 in the league. Put another way, I think Harvard's 6-8 was near the bottom of their possible outcomes for a 14 game season (and they still finished 4th).

So to get past Harvard, in all likelihood Penn and Dartmouth would have to bridge a large gap. The likeihood of that seems very low when 1) Harvard was better to begin with; 2)Harvard returns an All-Ivy level player who is better than anything they lost; 3) Penn and Dartmouth both lose one of their strongest players; and 4) Harvard brings in a much better recruiting class.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 806

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-22-16 11:49 AM - Post#210715    
    In response to SomeGuy

GBG and SomeGuy, note that the most recent prognostication was actually submitted as a response to mine. Logic or rationality was likely not a factor. All in good fun I'm sure.

Res ipsa loquitor.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3256

Reg: 11-23-04
Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
09-22-16 04:13 PM - Post#210745    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

While I recognize that 3-11 in the league last year would not give one great cause for optimism, I will, nonetheless argue that the Bears are being underappreciated in these early polls. Brown split with Cornell, Penn and Dartmouth and played two close games with Columbia. Brown lost only one player who played in league games last year, and I would argue that 6 or 7 teams suffered great graduation losses. I have not seen any of the incoming players and, unlike others on these Boards,I will refrain from predicting immediate help from the Frosh or from a transfer, but I expect they will provide some needed depth upfront. With 3 seasoned seniors and having Okolie for a full year, Daugherty healthy, and Fuller a year older, will also bode well. I will not predict that Brown will challenge for a top two or three spot, but I wouldn't be shocked if we challenge for Ivy Tourney inclusion.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4127

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
09-22-16 04:39 PM - Post#210748    
    In response to Old Bear

For one thing, Massey played 13 of the 14 conference games, so Brown lost two contributors. Overall, Cornell, Penn, and Princeton all lost nowhere close to what Brown lost from last year. Penn is the only other one of those three to lose a significant contributor. And Princeton not only doesn't lose anybody -- they gain back a 3 year starter.

While I disagree on your facts, I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion. While Brown looks like the most likely 8th place team to me, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them finish as high as 5th. If they get in the playoff as the 4th team, I'll be a little surprised, but only a little. Spieth and Blackmon have a lot of experience under their belts at this point that could pay dividends. Brown wasn't that far behind Penn, Dartmouth, and Cornell last year (if at all), so a different outcome this time seems perfectly plausible.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 806

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
09-22-16 04:44 PM - Post#210749    
    In response to Old Bear

Fair enough Old Bear. Not suggesting Bears won't be competitive and win games, but question is who will they leapfrog? Kuakamensah was so important in all parts of the game. He was the backstop on defense, possibly the best shot blocker and rebounder in the league, and a force on offense - both in the paint and from 3. Quite a big loss.

With all due respect, Brown is in the bottom five, but Cornell returns everyone and Columbia has great front court depth with players that were underutilized behing Lo, Mullin, Rosenberg and Cohen last year. That leaves Penn and Dartmouth. Penn has a strong recruit and two tantalizing transfers plus Woods hopefully returning for league play. Dartmouth has last two ROY's plus a strong recruiting class. I'm not saying Brown is futile, but I'm missing their 'story.'

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 09-22-16 04:45 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3256

Reg: 11-23-04
09-22-16 04:53 PM - Post#210750    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

You are correct, Massey did play in league games but his contribution, and minutes, declined significantly as the Ivy season progressed. Certainly CK will be missed. Okolie got better and better as the league season progressed. I don't believe the teams ranked 4 thru 8 are relatively comparable. I guess we will see.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4127

Reg: 11-22-04
09-22-16 05:35 PM - Post#210753    
    In response to Old Bear

I'm sorry -- "don't believe the teams ranked 4-8 are relatively comparable," or "do believe"? Seems like 4-8 being comparable is a good fact for Brown. Or maybe you are saying that Brown is better than the other teams teams in that group (and not comparable)?

Regardless, I certainly agree that we will see. Should be a fun year. Like last year, the 8th place team would have been competing for 3rd place in the league not all that many years ago. There wasn't a really bad team in the league last year, and it should be even better this year, which is a welcome change.

 
Tiger69 
PhD Student
Posts: 1984

Reg: 11-23-04
09-22-16 05:37 PM - Post#210754    
    In response to Old Bear

I've never been much of a realist. But, if my Tigers sweep the League (the REAL Championship), I'll pull for the Bears to sneak into the silly League tournament and win it. Then, the NCAA will have to take us both and the League tournament will be thrown out for the bad idea it is.

 
PennFan10 
Masters Student
Posts: 961

Reg: 02-15-15
09-22-16 07:57 PM - Post#210765    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

HGrad outed me. I was trying to mix things up a bit. It's easy to predict Harvard at 1 or 2. Takes a lot more guts to make them 5th this year and it's a far more interesting discussion to most of us to talk about how that happens.



 
Tiger69 
PhD Student
Posts: 1984

Reg: 11-23-04
09-23-16 11:05 AM - Post#210777    
    In response to PennFan10

But, we would certainly enjoy seeing that happen.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4127

Reg: 11-22-04
09-23-16 11:19 AM - Post#210778    
    In response to Tiger69

Yes, I don't think many of us will be crying if Harvard doesn't compete for the title this year. Realistically, I think 4th is as low as they go.

Stuff could go wrong -- an injury to Zena could hurt them a lot. I think they'll be better positioned to do without Chambers if he were to get hurt again, as McCarthy will be a year older and Aiken may be able to step in right away. But Chambers is very important to competing to win the league, too. And, as Mike pointed out, there is a lot of space to cover between where Harvard was last year and where Princeton was. I think expectations could bite Harvard (which is why I'd prefer to see everybody picking them 1st instead of 5th!), too. You've got a freshman class for the ages, and a whole roster of 3 and 4 star recruits playing in a league that is still mostly 2 star recruits. Confidence could carry them to a title, but it also could flip on them if the road isn't as easy as they expect. Winning tends to prevent a lot of playing times issues, etc. With the loaded roster, losing could result in dissension (which in turn could lead to more losing).

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4601

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-23-16 11:23 AM - Post#210780    
    In response to SomeGuy

Who knows what will happen in small samples, but when it comes to Pomeroy rank, the only possible way I could see Harvard finishing ahead of Princeton is if the Tigers somehow fail to improve over last season. There are just literally NO comps that I can see of a non-Top-100 team vaulting to the Top 50 based on a strong freshman class. Maybe Harvard is the first, but I don't like betting against history.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 806

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
09-23-16 12:06 PM - Post#210782    
    In response to mrjames

Unless that non-top 100 team played with only one freshman PG, lost it's all league center to injury for part of the year, and is getting it's nationally recognized Senior PG back.

I hope.

Regardless, an experienced Princeton team playing an offensive system that relies on intricacies and coordination should be the favorite (+ Brase returns).

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4127

Reg: 11-22-04
09-23-16 12:42 PM - Post#210785    
    In response to mrjames

I'm curious whether this scenario has ever happened in a conference like the Ivy, though. While the league has gotten much better, it may be that the level of the recruiting class compared to the rest of the league is unprecedented. I know that pomeroy, etc., are taking differences in league into account in rating a Princeton where they are likely to be, so ostensibly Princeton's rank of 50 should be the same as Michigan's rank of 50. But I wonder. Perhaps more importantly, it may be easier for a Harvard to make that leap in a league with only 2 top 100 teams compared to a Florida making that leap in a conference where nearly everyone is top 100.

I really do love the matchup though. Super experienced Princeton team with lots of seniors playing against a super talented, young Harvard team with a bunch of top 100 recruits. You can't ask for a clearer contrast in the debate of experience vs. talent. Perhaps that contrast could be part of what might make the league compelling for an at large. Throw in Makai Mason, who I can't imagine conceding anything to anybody, and a league where I'm hoping there isn't a single team in the bottom 100 in Pomeroy (we didn't quite make it last year, but it was close). Seems like it is shaping up to be a superbly interesting season.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4601

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-23-16 08:24 PM - Post#210806    
    In response to SomeGuy

Yeah, I really don't know about Harvard. If you asked me to give you a 95% confidence interval on Pythag or national rank, it would be exceedingly wide. Probably the weirdest team to predict since I've been predicting the Ivies, almost certainly the weirdest team projected to go up. There have been some doozies headed for a big tumble.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3069

Reg: 02-04-06
09-24-16 01:08 PM - Post#210817    
    In response to mrjames

Yale could be very good. Their front court backups improved over the course of last season to the point of outplaying Baylor's starters in the NCAAs when Sherrod and Sears were on the bench in foul trouble and Mason had stopped scoring. Then they played very well against Duke. And they will still be tall, regardless.

 
hoopla 
Masters Student
Posts: 484

Age: 43
Reg: 08-28-12
09-26-16 10:06 AM - Post#210850    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

GBGB,

I doubt we will pass Harvard (though you never know with all their newcomers).

But we will be top 4.

I actually like the expectations of everyone outside the Dartmouth program being lower than they should be.

It will make the great season ahead "pop" even more and serve our promising new coach and his staff well as they continue to take our program forward and to new heights in the years to come.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 472

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
09-26-16 10:17 AM - Post#210852    
    In response to mrjames

You raise a valid point regarding the Tigers if they can improve over their play last year to fend off Harvard as well as performing at a high level if they go to the NCAA tournament. With the return of Brase, assuming that he has recovered from the ACL surgery, the Tigers will have a wide body that they will need against the Crimson and top level teams. A legitimate question exists if Brase's offensive skill sets can mesh with the faster paced Tiger offense. It is unlikely that Weisz, Miller and Caruso will improve much. It is hard to believe that Cannady will be much better than last year as he was a major contributor.

The two wild cards might be Cook and Bell. If Cook plays like the second half last year and hits his 3 pt shots, he has the natural ability to raise his game to another level. The same holds true with Bell to a lesser extent but he does have additional upside especially with his ability to go to the basket.



 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
09-26-16 01:36 PM - Post#210862    
    In response to hoopla

I get the sense from everything I've read and seen that the Big Green program is moving forward in good way. I fully expect McLaughlin to build on the good work of Cormier.

I saw a picture of the team in the weight room with the mantra Work Hard, Work Smart, Work Together on their t-shirts. That's consistent with what McLaughlin said in his introductory presser. He's consistent, we know that.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
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