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Username Post: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut        (Topic#19230)
1LotteryPick1969 
PhD Student
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1LotteryPick1969
Age: 67
Loc: Baltimore, Maryland
Reg: 11-21-04
09-26-16 05:18 PM - Post#210877    
    In response to bradley

  • bradley Said:

The two wild cards might be Cook and Bell. If Cook plays like the second half last year and hits his 3 pt shots, he has the natural ability to raise his game to another level. The same holds true with Bell to a lesser extent but he does have additional upside especially with his ability to go to the basket.




I would add Myles Stephens as a player who could raise his game. And Alec Brennan?.....still hoping.


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
09-26-16 10:34 PM - Post#210881    
    In response to mrjames

Blue ribbon basketball released their rankings:

1 Princeton
2 Yale
3 Harvard
4 Penn
5 Columbia
6 Cornell
7 Brown
8 Dartmouth
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 487

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
09-27-16 01:43 PM - Post#210906    
    In response to mrjames

If one goes under the assumption that Princeton does not improve from last year but remains pretty much the same with the same players plus Brase, the next question might be which other Ivy team can perform similarly to Yale's team from last year during the regular season --- Sears, Sherrod, Mason, Victor, Montaue/Dallier/Downey?? Tall shoes to fill. Yale was 13-1; Tigers 12-2.

The great equalizer may be the inaugural Ivy League tournament.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
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Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
10-11-16 03:04 PM - Post#211425    
    In response to mrjames

PREDICTED FINISH by Rob Dauster @ NBCSports

1. Princeton
2. Harvard
3. Yale
4. Penn
5. Cornell
6. Columbia
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

Ivy League Season Preview: Princeton, Harvard and Yale headline as league makes major changes


"...no excuses - only results!”


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4722

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-11-16 04:38 PM - Post#211428    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Like Makai Mason as the Ivy Preseason POY. That Yale team is going to be dangerous. Not terribly deep, which could hurt them in back-to-backs, but they've got sneakier top-level talent than people might think.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
10-11-16 04:39 PM - Post#211429    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Very cursory analysis by NBC Sports. Pretty much discussed returning all-Ivy players and new coaches but not much more. Maybe that's enough. Hope not.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
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Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
10-19-16 01:05 PM - Post#211671    
    In response to mrjames

Duke, Kentucky, Kansas top CBS Sports' 1-351 college basketball rankings by Matt Norlander & Gary Parrish. [Ivy League breakout]

(1) 54. Princeton
The Tigers are fully stocked with a returning group of starters. Henry Caruso is the best player on the team, and if you think I'm overrating Princeton, then be sure to check out just how efficient this group was against the conference last season. No Ivy program has the reliable depth and relative strength 1-7 like Princeton.

(2) 67. Harvard
Some think Harvard's better than Princeton, but I'm not convinced. However, Siyani Chambers is now a senior and back after missing last season to a torn ACL. Zena Edosomwan is a beast down low. Corey Johnson could be a breakout player in the Ivy League. Dangerous team, and if Chambers goes god-mode in conference play, then it gets really interesting.

(3) 105. Yale:
The Bulldogs finally made an NCAA Tournament last season, doing so for the first time since the early 1960s. But Justin Sears, Brandon Sherrod and Jack Montague are gone. Makai Mason is a top-100 player in the game, though. Yale's capable of taking the Ivy auto bid now that the league has (foolishly) gone to a four-team conference playoff format.

(4) 165. Penn
A young team that will play above its talent level thanks to Steve Donahue. The Quakers are two years away from trading blows with Harvard at the top of the conference.

(5) 191. Columbia
The Lions had the personnel last season to steal the Ivy title, but it never truly came together. Jim Engles has built more from less. I'm putting the over/under on Engles finishing top two in the Ivy in the next five seasons at 1.5 -- and taking the over. Right now, it's a question of who steps up to be a go-to guy for Columbia.

(6) 212. Dartmouth
Has anyone ever been higher on an Ivy League program with a new coach than me? Dartmouth brings in David McLaughlin. Gimme the Big Green to improve from 4-10 to 6-8 in the Ivy this season.

(7) 217. Cornell
Bill Courtney could never get as much momentum as I thought he would at Cornell, but he did recruit a stud in Matt Morgan, and the sophomore will make Brian Earl's first season a lot easier than it otherwise would be. Morgan's a ridiculously good player. He'll average north of 20 points this season if Earl runs the offense through him.

(8) 274. Brown
Likely the worst team in the Ivy. A key defensive force, Cedric Kuakumensah, graduated. They do have some experience. On the whole, should be better than last season, but the league overall will be better, too.


Duke, Kentucky, Kansas top CBS Sports' 1-351 college basketball rankings
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 816

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
10-19-16 01:34 PM - Post#211673    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Thanks for doing the work.

Interesting that CBS ranks the 4th place team (Penn) closer to the 7th place team (Cornell) than it does to the 3rd place team (Yale).





 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16032

Reg: 11-21-04
10-19-16 02:10 PM - Post#211676    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

That's because it's pretty obviously the case.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
10-19-16 02:18 PM - Post#211677    
    In response to mrjames

2016-17 IVY LEAGUE MEN'S BASKETBALL PRESEASON MEDIA POLL PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

2016-17 IVY LEAGUE MEN'S BASKETBALL PRESEASON MEDIA POLL
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
First-Place Votes in Parentheses
Rank School Points
1. Princeton (12) 130
2. Harvard (5) 123
3. Yale 101
4. Penn 72
5. Columbia 61
6. Dartmouth 48
7. Cornell 42
8. Brown 35

Not as fun as @ivybball #ivyfanpoll but yielded the same results!!!
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
10-23-16 10:07 PM - Post#211902    
    In response to mrjames

KenPom.com is out. The Ivy League is 14th with a -1.06 averaged AdjO and AdjD rating, behind the Missouri Valley Conference with a +0.88 rating.

1. Princeton 35
2. Yale 116
3. Harvard 128
4. Columbia 195
5. Dartmouth 216
6. Cornell 225
7. Penn 231
8. Brown 256
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-23-16 10:37 PM - Post#211904    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

KenPom's likely underselling Harvard and Yale, possibly in a big way due to the use of league history to regress performance for unknown roles rather than the specific players those two teams have coming in.

That won't do as much to the average as it did in past years due to his use of Win50 versus a straight average, but it will certainly help.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 487

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
10-24-16 10:25 AM - Post#211906    
    In response to mrjames

Somehow, the influx of freshmen players does not adversely effect Kentucky and other big time schools preseason rankings --- wonder why? I am sure that there are issues of putting together a team with a lot of very young mem but ... Harvard's ranking is very surprising.

Ivy League conference overall ranking is not helped by the schedule put together by several Ivy teams. If you want to be acknowledged as a conference, the Ivies have to compete at a higher level --- Princeton does have 5 games against top 100 teams, fortunately. Most importantly, the Ivies need to win a much higher percentage of games against higher ranked teams in the past.



 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4722

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-24-16 12:01 PM - Post#211915    
    In response to bradley

Well... that's exactly right. KP fills in the blanks with historical league/team performance, so a league like the SEC isn't going to regress a program much if it needs to fill in the blanks with a frosh - unlike for the Ivy League. I'd wager that nuanced projection systems, like Hanner/Winn with SI, will have Harvard in the Top 100 and *maybe* Yale as well (Yale's more of a gamble, because you're betting on one player - Jordan Bruner - being really good, which I have reason to believe he will be).

This year's schedules are pretty solid actually. Harvard has 5 Tier B games, a couple of which could end up being Tier A games. Last year's gauntlet of a schedule had 2 Tier B and 3 Tier A games, so it's not far off that one. Princeton has 2 Tier A and 3 Tier B games. Yale has 2 Tier A and 3 Tier B games as well. Penn has 2 Tier A and 2 Tier B. Cornell has 2 Tier A and 3 Tier B. Brown has 3 Tier A. Dartmouth has 1 Tier A and 3 Tier B and finally Columbia has 2 Tier As and 1 Tier B.

That's plenty of opportunities against site-adjusted Top 50 and Top 100 opponents - more than in recent years top-to-bottom. Every team has to pitch in, though. Scalps matter across the league, not just for the bubble contender.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 487

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
10-31-16 03:00 PM - Post#212190    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

AP Top 25 preseason poll just came out. Princeton received 2 votes --- Harvard 1 vote. At least, two Ivy teams actually received mention.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
11-01-16 02:22 PM - Post#212253    
    In response to PennFan10

Random commentary but interesting.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16032

Reg: 11-21-04
Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
11-02-16 01:33 PM - Post#212335    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

If that guy picks Penn for fourth based solely on returning players without consideration of Brodeur and the two transfers, I am more optimistic than before. I wouldn't pick Penn for 4th without the new players making a major contribution.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
11-02-16 01:55 PM - Post#212337    
    In response to palestra38

Agree especially if the Freshman is going to be a starter.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4168

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
11-10-16 03:11 PM - Post#212878    
    In response to mrjames

Should we all do our picks again now that Mason is out?

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut
11-10-16 04:44 PM - Post#212893    
    In response to SomeGuy

I had the same thought. Who moves up and who moves down?
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
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