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Username Post: Preseason Projections - Initial Cut        (Topic#19230)
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4716

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-10-16 05:21 PM - Post#212904    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Just adjusting the continuity-based model for Makai's absence, I've now got Yale really close to where Columbia was (though I have Columbia lower now too due to Castlin).

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRank
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 103.6 107.6 0.403 196
Cornell Ivy 101.0 105.9 0.383 205
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 106.0 97.9 0.692 89
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 100.3 101.5 0.469 170

Frankly, though anything from 3-7 looks pretty murky and really a reasonable miss from this top-level model could have a team like Brown ending up 3rd best.

The good news for Yale is that a reasonable comp (Cornell 2010) lost about the same number of minutes/key players from the same starting point and stayed in the Top 200. And that's a team that was better offensively than defensively. Offense is more dependent on continuity than defense, so you'd expect a more defensively-oriented squad like Yale to fall a bit less with the same amount of turnover. In other words, I think Yale will now fall to the pack, but will probably have the highest floor of any of the teams down there.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 815

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-10-16 05:30 PM - Post#212906    
    In response to mrjames

Thank Mike.

I'm struck by the calculation that 6 of the Ivy's 8 teams project at 170 to 243. Looks like there will be a very competitive 6 team race. If Harvard doesn't gel in time to avoid falling behind Princeton, then the race for the two remaining playoff spots will be the focus.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3272

Reg: 11-23-04
11-10-16 09:44 PM - Post#212924    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

How well did Nate Silver do on the election? I'm going to wait until early January before I predict how the League stacks up.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4716

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-20-17 11:46 AM - Post#227781    
    In response to mrjames

Worth a bump on this.

Here's what my continuity model said going into the year:

Team Conf ORAT DRAT Pytha g ImpRank
Brown Ivy 100.2 107.8 0.322 243
Columbia Ivy 103.6 107.6 0.403 196
Cornell Ivy 101.0 105.9 0.383 205
Dartmouth Ivy 99.9 104.8 0.380 206
Harvard Ivy 106.0 97.9 0.692 89
Penn Ivy 100.5 105.5 0.379 206
Princeton Ivy 113.0 100.0 0.778 52
Yale Ivy 100.3 101.5 0.469 170

From an efficiency margin perspective (since that's how KP judges things now), here's the expected efficiency margin from above and then the actual:

Team Expected / Actual
Brown (7.55) / (9.86)
Columbia (4.03) / (6.27)
Cornell (4.83) / (8.72)
Dartmouth (4.91) / (12.96)
Harvard 8.03 / 4.75
Penn (4.96) / (0.21)
Princeton 13.01 / 12.59
Yale (1.22) / 1.00

All in all, it's not a bad first blush estimator. The biggest misses were Dartmouth (overpredicted) and Penn (underpredicted) but every other team finished within 4 pts/100 poss of the expected Efficiency Margin.

In the future, I'd probably add a frosh mins expectation based on how strong frosh contributions can overcome the need for more continuity (I plugged Harvard's continuity to account for the frosh - and slightly over projected - because without it, Harvard would have been near 200, which didn't seem right).

It's a good first approximation though.

 
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