bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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10-16-16 09:42 PM - Post#211578
BYU game will be challenging as they have 3 players who were top 100 high school players. They have two good 6'10" front court players plus a 6'8" senior power forward. They have two good players who completed their two year mission work and are coming back to play for BYU -- great way to rotate talent as well as two highly rated transfer students. Sophomore, 6'2" was second leading scorer as a frosh, 16 pts per game. Bart Torvik has BYU as #54 with Tigers as #31 but the game is at BYU.
Should be a good test for Princeton and the return of Brase will help off the boards as well as providing a big body assuming that he is healthy. Coach will have to make a decision if Brase or Caruso will come off the bench -- would not be surprised that it will be Caruso as he brings instant offense and Brase brings size. Everyone is back plus Brase which is difficult to believe so the Tigers have experience plus flexibility. There will be a lot of competition for playing time.
This non-conference game plus VCU, Cal and Monmouth will be very important games from a big picture standpoint. Great test for Bell, Brase, Cannady, Caruso, Cook, Miller, Stephens, Weisz and others. Would not be the least bit surprised if the Tigers respond well on the road as they did last year at Miami and Maryland but time will tell.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
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10-17-16 09:25 AM - Post#211582
In response to bradley
They better respond well on the road since they will be there for the first month of the season!!!!
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SRP
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-04-06
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10-17-16 11:58 AM - Post#211588
In response to JadwinGeorge
Brase not playing in Italy is somewhat concerning, but the Tigers should not depend on him in any case, even though at full function he would be a big help. Miller is still the best low-post defender on the team, and if he can give them just a little bit of consistent offense--an extra bucket or two--it could tip the balance in close contests. With Brase or Brennan in there they can torture the D with five outside shooters, which is great, but post defense and rim protection suffer. (I'm discounting the possibility of Brennan making a leap on either end of the floor, but that would be a pleasant surprise.)
The unknown to me is whether Cannady makes one of those sophomore jumps that have been known to occur. I sometimes think our phlegmatic style on this board underplayed how terrific he was last season as a freshman.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-17-16 02:48 PM - Post#211596
In response to SRP
I think that Stephens has the most unrealized upside. Cannady can still improve. But, he is already a proven quality. It would be nice if Brennan could live up to his billing, especially on D without fouling so predictably.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-17-16 04:42 PM - Post#211598
In response to SRP
I like that we can play higher level basketball in the league and still use words like phlegmatic.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2262
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Non-Conference Games 10-17-16 06:44 PM - Post#211601
In response to bradley
Coach will have to make a decision if Brase or Caruso will come off the bench -- would not be surprised that it will be Caruso as he brings instant offense and Brase brings size.
Had to believe Caruso does not start--he is the first player that outside press mention when discussing Princeton.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-17-16 10:46 PM - Post#211605
In response to SomeGuy
SG, you should have been a Tiger.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Non-Conference Games 10-18-16 08:55 AM - Post#211610
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Although Brase did not play in Italy, he was on the floor during warm ups and looked fine --- Coach may just being very careful with him. It is probably less important as to who starts but more important that Henderson has the right match ups on the floor and he has considerable flexibility. With Brase, he can go Miller/Brennan and Brase against a big front court like BYU or go small with Caruso, Cook, Weisz, Bell/Cannady and Miller/Brase. Stephens can be utilized to his strengths as well. The Tigers rebounded very well with their smaller team last year based on the stats but they did get in trouble defensively with Weisz playing against Maryland and Miami bigs. Brase helps plus Miller will probably continue to get stronger as a defender.
I am not sure if Cannady can contribute much more than last year as he was an amazing in several key games. His style of play is not a perfect fit with the Tigers team style of play but he is explosive and will probably be needed to jump start the offense at times. Caruso, Cook, Cannady and Bell can get off shots on their own if needed.
Major questions may be injuries and team chemistry as minutes will be tough to get although winning helps. Cook may have break out year.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
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Re: Non-Conference Games 10-18-16 03:15 PM - Post#211614
In response to bradley
I agree with all your points.
We won't know the answer until conference play as MH likes to give everyone some PT early.
There are some talented freshman who need some prolonged court time early so they get a taste of D1 basketball and learn their shortcomings.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Non-Conference Games 10-18-16 05:27 PM - Post#211622
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
The dark horse of the freshmen is the big guy with the unpronounceable name from Trenton who was our final commitment last spring. He was an under-the-radar late developer who may give us more strength underneath after we lose the current seniors to graduation. I hope that he gets some court time this season so we can see how he adapts to college ball.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
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Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-18-16 07:01 PM - Post#211625
In response to Tiger69
Richmond Aririguzoh is especially important since the next class has four commits and no big so far. (Although I am hoping Mike James swoops down as a deus ex machina and says there is a big he knows about who will sign soon with us.)
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-18-16 08:30 PM - Post#211628
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Elijah Barnes is a legit big and a very, very good prospect to boot (maybe top 5 in the Ivy 2017 class so far). Sebastian Much will likely be an Ivy stretch four too (and he's a top 2-3 player in the Ivy 2017 class right now). Neither is a true center, for sure, but both will likely be able to guard interior players at the D1 level. And Princeton doesn't really like running true centers out there anyway, because they can clog the space for movement. On the defensive end, few Ivy players each season really require you to have a true defensive center on the floor for matchup reasons, so you can mostly get away with playing two 4s as bigs, especially if you can punish the other team on the other end.
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bradley
PhD Student
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Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Non-Conference Games 10-18-16 08:41 PM - Post#211629
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
With the decision to go with the nonsensical Ivy League tournament, Coach H has some tough decisions to make as to playing time. Against BYU, California, VCU and Monmouth, he may go with a very limited rotation as he will want to keep the hope of a NCAA bid in case the Tigers lose in the Ivy tournament by winning at least three of these games. There a few weak teams on the non-conferenceschedule that would give the opportunity to play other guys once the game is secure.
By the time that the Ivy League starts, he should have a handle if the Tigers have a legit chance for a bid one way or the other. An issue might be that he will need to keep winning in the Ivy League season to help secure a bid regardless of the Ivy tournament. Unfortunately, a number of Ivy teams have a soft non-conference schedule that will effect the Tiger's RPI. If Princeton does not win against strong non-conference teams, he can play the younger guys during the Ivy League regular season as the Tigers be playing in the Ivy Tournament. His strategy might then become just have the guys be ready to win the Ivy Tournament and give out playing time accordingly.
He will be walking on a tight rope to balance this season vs. the future but I would not be surprised if he goes for the "Golden Ring" this year. Another factor might be his plans for the future -- Princeton or next level up after this year.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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Re: Non-Conference Games 10-19-16 09:44 AM - Post#211654
In response to bradley
Brase should be near 100% by the time the schedule begins. He is quite confident in his recovery, as is the entire staff.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Non-Conference Games 10-19-16 06:28 PM - Post#211694
In response to JadwinGeorge
It seems like everyone is cranked up. Let the season begin!
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4894
Reg: 02-04-06
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10-21-16 06:09 PM - Post#211831
In response to Tiger69
I hope MH puts 100% of his chips on getting the auto bid. If Princeton goes undefeated non-conference and loses in the first round of the genius Tournament, there will be no at-large bid. The "bad loss" will be used to discredit everything else since PU is an Ivy school and it lacks the recruiting buzz and overall hype Harvard has generated. Last year the Tigers weren't even in the bubble conversation, despite the merits of the case, and I see no reason for the merits to have much of an effect next season either.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
Reg: 12-08-04
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10-22-16 08:08 AM - Post#211836
In response to SRP
If Princeton goes undefeated non-conference and loses in the first round of the genius Tournament, there will be no at-large bid.
This, until the Committee proves otherwise (which I don't expect). Even MJames seemed to come around after last year to the fact that "metrics" are not used objectively by the NCAA, but rather selectively, to support biases.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
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Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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10-22-16 10:24 AM - Post#211840
In response to SRP
Respectfully, Steve, I disagree. If the Tigers go unbeaten out of the conference and win the regular season, with a 12-2 or 13-1 record, but lose the auto bid, I think the Ivy record in the last several years makes it highly likely we get that elusive second bid. The Tigers would probably be a Top 25 team in that scenario. If, say, a 4th place Penn team wins at The Cathedral, I would not be surprised if the Tigers got a better seed than the Ivy champ. But the chances that the Tigers go unbeaten prior to the Ivy schedule are not very high.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-22-16 11:09 AM - Post#211842
In response to JadwinGeorge
The Palestra is a fine basketball site. But, it is no Cathedral.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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10-22-16 11:23 AM - Post#211843
In response to JadwinGeorge
The likelihood of the Tigers going unbeaten in non-conference play is highly unlikely. With a road schedule of BYU, VCU and Monmouth plus a game against UCAL in Hawaii, it just is not going to happen to finish 13-0 non-conference. If the Tigers finish 10-3 non-conference and do well in the Ivy League regular season play, they have a chance for a second bid even if they lose in the IL tournament but much depends on who they lose to as well as their overall RPI ranking.
They do have the benefit of starting off with a high preseason RPI rank which is a function of their success last year plus returning all core players with Brase and being a senior laden team.
We should thank Yale for what they accomplished last year at the Big Dance as to helping to set higher expectations plus Harvard's recruiting class.
Most importantly, the Tigers need to succeed on the court and there will be twists and turns along the way. The opportunity is staring right at them. I would be surprised if Weisz and others do not rise to the challenge like Sears, Sherrod, and Victor with Mason did last year. Seniors are normally bigger, stronger and smarter and most importantly -- experienced and driven.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-22-16 12:48 PM - Post#211845
In response to bradley
A few notes - but generally agree with all said above:
1) I was highly disappointed with last year's committee, but not all committees do things the same way. My issue with last year's committee was that there were a bunch of qualified mids with different resumes. Some had great wins and bad losses, others had no great wins or bad losses while still others were road warriors, and others had strong NCSOS numbers, if not big OOC wins.
My issue was that in the past, the committee would have clear points of emphasis and we'd get a few mids in that fit those characteristics but would lose other qualified ones because they did something the committee didn't like. Last year, there were no clear points of emphasis - mids with all sorts of different strengths were either left out or drastically under seeded. It was a bloodbath during a time when the committee appeared to (in the years before) be getting more nuanced in how to judge mids.
2) There's no preseason RPI, BUT... preseason buzz can only help. We all have cognitive biases, and the more the media is making it seem like the Ivy belongs in a 2 bid discussion, the more likely the committee will see it that way too...
3) Harvard, Yale and Princeton are in this two-bid gambit together. We're not getting three bids, but the quality of the third team and the big wins (if any) it recorded OOC will absolutely influence the viability of a second bid. If Columbia had hung on at NW and hosting St. Joe's, it would have added some cachet to a league non-conference resume that started and ended with a fourth-place team beating a strong BYU team on a neutral floor and finishing second in that same MTE.
I have faith we can do this, folks. Each of the top three are more likely than not to notch at least one signature win and it's more likely than not that one of those three will notch multiple. Avoiding bad losses or a damning skid through a tricky Ivy slate will be vital, but we have a real chance to be in the conversation in February and March. I feel good about it. Let's see what happens!!!
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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10-22-16 02:43 PM - Post#211854
In response to mrjames
Good points.
It would be a big plus if one of the Ivies really steps out and cracks the Top 25. As the Harvard freshmen mature, it may well be possible in the not too distant future. This year, based on the non-conference, Princeton and Yale may have the best opportunity to crack the top 25 if all goes right --- Yale has both Virginia and Pittsburgh very early in the season but a very tall task. In the first 10 games, the Tigers have BYU, VCU, Cal, Hawaii, St. Joe's and Monmouth and they should be able to compete. Over the past few year, the Ivies have not won enough challenging non-conference games and they need to reverse the trend.
If and when an Ivy team cracks the Top 25, publicity will follow similar to the great Penn and Princeton teams of the past.
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SRP
Postdoc
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10-23-16 06:21 PM - Post#211896
In response to bradley
As Danny deVito said in Other People's Money, "Amen. Because where I come from that's what you say after a prayer for the dead."
Certainly pre-season buzz and hype are factors, as are notable star players who attract fan interest, and those factors are trending in the right direction and might help an Ivy team (especially Harvard or Yale [Makai Mason!]). But there just isn't any way I can foresee a Princeton team that loses to a 4-seed in the tourney getting a bid, regardless of the record of the rest of the league, their resume, or anything else. If it happens I will say the appropriate hallelujahs, but there simply isn't any evidence to show that they will get fair treatment on the merits. As mrjames is starting to realize, for mid-majors it's Calvinball all the time, and for a "cute" Ivy like PU it's even worse.
There is a strong social logic to this, which I argued last year (and where I baffled mrjames with my "It's Chinatown, Jake" reference). The incentive structure of the committee does not allow them to pass over a coach and athletic director--who will likely be no more than one or two degrees of separation from one or more committee members-- who might lose their jobs or forego big raises, in favor of a Mitch Henderson, who faces essentially zero career risk for not getting the bid. Not to mention the unwillingness to cut the rich Ivy League schools in on the NCAA tournament cash when "needier" schools can be rationalized into the field ahead of them.
Of course, it is unlikely that the Tigers go undefeated non-conference--my point was that even in that unlikely event, they'd have to win at least one game in the new conference folly to even get considered for a bid (which they would probably still be denied). If they upset Cal and Cal went on to win the Pac-12 and they beat VCU and VCU won the A-10 and they went 12-2 in conference and lost in the first round of the folly it would put the committee in a very tough squeeze, but I have confidence in their creativity and in the ESPN/CBS good-old-boy cover-up from the likes of Greenberg, Bilas, etc. (Dickie V would do his seasonal shedding of crocodile tears and then go back to hyping all the big-time talent and diaper dandies and coaching legends.)
BTW, my fan-ship includes fantasy as well as fanaticism, so in my secret place Princeton is undefeated until proven otherwise. I imagine them needing their scissors resharpened after cutting down so many nets this season. But in public, I promise not to go all Columbia on you--past performance certainly lends a strong note of caution about this group when they are expected to win.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-23-16 10:37 PM - Post#211903
In response to SRP
I think that you are on to the basic plot: Protect your buddies still coaching, and make sure that the tournament riches continue to flow disproportionately to the power conferences to support their bloated athletic departments. Any suggestion that the money should be allocated to all NCAA members on the basis of supporting student athlete programs open to all, including those less athletically gifted, exposes me for the pinko socialist that I am.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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10-26-16 08:27 PM - Post#212001
In response to SRP
"BTW, my fan-ship includes fantasy as well as fanaticism, so in my secret place Princeton is undefeated until proven otherwise. I imagine them needing their scissors resharpened after cutting down so many nets this season. But in public, I promise not to go all Columbia on you--past performance certainly lends a strong note of caution about this group when they are expected to win."
Strong note of caution makes complete, logical sense. It is great to be a fan and root hard for a team but it is very challenging to win non-conference and Ivy League games. Last year's "irrational exuberance" is the classic example of expectations out racing reality. At the end of the day, Yale won a tough competitive battle against the Tigers and Lions. Sears, Sherrod, Victor and Mason simply refused to lose and follow the fate of the prior year when they missed a golden opportunity. Yale's players, mostly seniors, decided not to let it happen again. Will Weisz, Brase, Caruso and Cook follow the Yale senior class model or fail to grab the golden ring?
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
Reg: 12-08-04
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Non-Conference Games 10-26-16 08:47 PM - Post#212003
In response to SRP
I promise not to go all Columbia on you
It's amusing that no one has to ask what this phrase means.
Edited by sparman on 10-26-16 08:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2211
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
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10-26-16 10:53 PM - Post#212010
In response to Tiger69
The Palestra is a fine basketball site. But, it is no Cathedral.
Compared to your place, it sure is. And while I regret the removal of the actual benches and the seats that were right on the court, otherwise, the recent renovations have left the old girl looking bright and healthy again. Love her! Worship her!
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-26-16 11:48 PM - Post#212012
In response to dperry
The grubbier the place, the more people seem to get attached to it -- at least at a distance. I'm a NJ transplant and now live in a small Colorado mountain town. Occasionally there will be a noisy group sitting in a corner of my local bar reminiscing about "home". The more they drink, the louder and more sentimental they get. They are usually from Texas or New Jersey.
Ah ... The Palestra!
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-02-16 06:31 PM - Post#212351
In response to SRP
Sure, there is probably some bias against the mids. Even so, there certainly aren't any situations in recent memory where an Ivy should have gotten consideration for an at-large, much less was unfairly treated. We really don't know what the committee reaction would be to a ranked Princeton team failing to get the auto bid, because it hasn't happened. There have been some mids that I was very disappointed to see left out in recent years, but there have been some at larges, as well. So I think there is a threshold where it is at least possible, even if there is bias in the system.
And once it happens, it's a lot easier for everybody to imagine it.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-03-16 01:03 PM - Post#212433
In response to Tiger69
OK, compared with the Rockies at sunset, the Palestra is not a cathedral.
But in almost every other comparison, it is.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-03-16 10:49 PM - Post#212471
In response to palestra38
I do miss the double headers with a Big 5 match preceding the Penn-Princeton game. I enjoyed watching the moth-eaten St. Joe's hawk doing figure eights on the court while the fans bellowed out "Oh, when the Hawks ...." It somehow eased the pain of our first round NCAA loss to them in Dollar Bill's sophomore year (1963). But, otherwise, Philly was such a depressing town.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-04-16 05:23 AM - Post#212472
In response to Tiger69
While I don't go quite as far back as thee, Philly is indeed a much better town to visit than it was in the days when it was famed for having the sidewalks roll up at 5. And the Palestra is still there.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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11-04-16 10:08 AM - Post#212480
In response to palestra38
If you know of a better venue for college basketball than The Cathedral please share the news! If you've never been there when the house was full I feel sorry for you. Perhaps the tournament will fill the place. I hope so. I can't wait.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-04-16 10:16 AM - Post#212481
In response to JadwinGeorge
You badly misconstrued my post if you think I disagree with the Palestra being the greatest college basketball venue in the nation. And I have been there for hundreds of games when sold out (I broadcast the Penn games from there when I was a student in the late '70s---Penn had some rather good teams at the time).
All I was saying is that PHILADELPHIA is a much better place to visit now than it was in the '60s and early '70s.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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11-07-16 09:50 PM - Post#212667
In response to SRP
BYU plays a second exhibition game against Hawaii on Friday night. With the Tigers playing Hawaii later in the season, Coach H should be able to have the game scouted.
Fortunately, one of the bigs on BYU is a star defensive lineman, Kaufaski, at 6'9" so he will not be playing against the Tigers but two of the three best players are 6'10" and 6'8". There may be match up issues both ways especially if the Tigers play small. This game may be a test for Coach to figure out how to best utilize Brase/Caruso and others as he may need Brase on the floor with additional minutes to guard Davis at 6'8" with Brennan as a backup to Miller if Miller gets in foul trouble guarding the talented 6'10" player, Mika. The third star BYU player, Emery, is 6'2" scorer. The rest of the team appears to be a combination of three point shooters and role players.
Should be a very good test as to the Tigers ability to go against teams with talented front court players. Offensively, the Tigers should be fine especially if they hit some 3 point shots. Henderson will need flexibility to face very different non-conference teams.
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