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Username Post: Non-Conference Games        (Topic#19374)
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-22-16 12:48 PM - Post#211845    
    In response to bradley

A few notes - but generally agree with all said above:

1) I was highly disappointed with last year's committee, but not all committees do things the same way. My issue with last year's committee was that there were a bunch of qualified mids with different resumes. Some had great wins and bad losses, others had no great wins or bad losses while still others were road warriors, and others had strong NCSOS numbers, if not big OOC wins.

My issue was that in the past, the committee would have clear points of emphasis and we'd get a few mids in that fit those characteristics but would lose other qualified ones because they did something the committee didn't like. Last year, there were no clear points of emphasis - mids with all sorts of different strengths were either left out or drastically under seeded. It was a bloodbath during a time when the committee appeared to (in the years before) be getting more nuanced in how to judge mids.

2) There's no preseason RPI, BUT... preseason buzz can only help. We all have cognitive biases, and the more the media is making it seem like the Ivy belongs in a 2 bid discussion, the more likely the committee will see it that way too...

3) Harvard, Yale and Princeton are in this two-bid gambit together. We're not getting three bids, but the quality of the third team and the big wins (if any) it recorded OOC will absolutely influence the viability of a second bid. If Columbia had hung on at NW and hosting St. Joe's, it would have added some cachet to a league non-conference resume that started and ended with a fourth-place team beating a strong BYU team on a neutral floor and finishing second in that same MTE.

I have faith we can do this, folks. Each of the top three are more likely than not to notch at least one signature win and it's more likely than not that one of those three will notch multiple. Avoiding bad losses or a damning skid through a tricky Ivy slate will be vital, but we have a real chance to be in the conversation in February and March. I feel good about it. Let's see what happens!!!

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
10-22-16 02:43 PM - Post#211854    
    In response to mrjames

Good points.

It would be a big plus if one of the Ivies really steps out and cracks the Top 25. As the Harvard freshmen mature, it may well be possible in the not too distant future. This year, based on the non-conference, Princeton and Yale may have the best opportunity to crack the top 25 if all goes right --- Yale has both Virginia and Pittsburgh very early in the season but a very tall task. In the first 10 games, the Tigers have BYU, VCU, Cal, Hawaii, St. Joe's and Monmouth and they should be able to compete. Over the past few year, the Ivies have not won enough challenging non-conference games and they need to reverse the trend.

If and when an Ivy team cracks the Top 25, publicity will follow similar to the great Penn and Princeton teams of the past.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
10-23-16 06:21 PM - Post#211896    
    In response to bradley

As Danny deVito said in Other People's Money, "Amen. Because where I come from that's what you say after a prayer for the dead."

Certainly pre-season buzz and hype are factors, as are notable star players who attract fan interest, and those factors are trending in the right direction and might help an Ivy team (especially Harvard or Yale [Makai Mason!]). But there just isn't any way I can foresee a Princeton team that loses to a 4-seed in the tourney getting a bid, regardless of the record of the rest of the league, their resume, or anything else. If it happens I will say the appropriate hallelujahs, but there simply isn't any evidence to show that they will get fair treatment on the merits. As mrjames is starting to realize, for mid-majors it's Calvinball all the time, and for a "cute" Ivy like PU it's even worse.

There is a strong social logic to this, which I argued last year (and where I baffled mrjames with my "It's Chinatown, Jake" reference). The incentive structure of the committee does not allow them to pass over a coach and athletic director--who will likely be no more than one or two degrees of separation from one or more committee members-- who might lose their jobs or forego big raises, in favor of a Mitch Henderson, who faces essentially zero career risk for not getting the bid. Not to mention the unwillingness to cut the rich Ivy League schools in on the NCAA tournament cash when "needier" schools can be rationalized into the field ahead of them.

Of course, it is unlikely that the Tigers go undefeated non-conference--my point was that even in that unlikely event, they'd have to win at least one game in the new conference folly to even get considered for a bid (which they would probably still be denied). If they upset Cal and Cal went on to win the Pac-12 and they beat VCU and VCU won the A-10 and they went 12-2 in conference and lost in the first round of the folly it would put the committee in a very tough squeeze, but I have confidence in their creativity and in the ESPN/CBS good-old-boy cover-up from the likes of Greenberg, Bilas, etc. (Dickie V would do his seasonal shedding of crocodile tears and then go back to hyping all the big-time talent and diaper dandies and coaching legends.)

BTW, my fan-ship includes fantasy as well as fanaticism, so in my secret place Princeton is undefeated until proven otherwise. I imagine them needing their scissors resharpened after cutting down so many nets this season. But in public, I promise not to go all Columbia on you--past performance certainly lends a strong note of caution about this group when they are expected to win.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
10-23-16 10:37 PM - Post#211903    
    In response to SRP

I think that you are on to the basic plot: Protect your buddies still coaching, and make sure that the tournament riches continue to flow disproportionately to the power conferences to support their bloated athletic departments. Any suggestion that the money should be allocated to all NCAA members on the basis of supporting student athlete programs open to all, including those less athletically gifted, exposes me for the pinko socialist that I am.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
10-26-16 08:27 PM - Post#212001    
    In response to SRP

"BTW, my fan-ship includes fantasy as well as fanaticism, so in my secret place Princeton is undefeated until proven otherwise. I imagine them needing their scissors resharpened after cutting down so many nets this season. But in public, I promise not to go all Columbia on you--past performance certainly lends a strong note of caution about this group when they are expected to win."



Strong note of caution makes complete, logical sense. It is great to be a fan and root hard for a team but it is very challenging to win non-conference and Ivy League games. Last year's "irrational exuberance" is the classic example of expectations out racing reality. At the end of the day, Yale won a tough competitive battle against the Tigers and Lions. Sears, Sherrod, Victor and Mason simply refused to lose and follow the fate of the prior year when they missed a golden opportunity. Yale's players, mostly seniors, decided not to let it happen again. Will Weisz, Brase, Caruso and Cook follow the Yale senior class model or fail to grab the golden ring?


 
sparman 
PhD Student
Posts: 1339
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
Non-Conference Games
10-26-16 08:47 PM - Post#212003    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
I promise not to go all Columbia on you



It's amusing that no one has to ask what this phrase means.


Edited by sparman on 10-26-16 08:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
dperry 
Postdoc
Posts: 2211
dperry
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
10-26-16 10:53 PM - Post#212010    
    In response to Tiger69

  • Tiger69 Said:
The Palestra is a fine basketball site. But, it is no Cathedral.



Compared to your place, it sure is. And while I regret the removal of the actual benches and the seats that were right on the court, otherwise, the recent renovations have left the old girl looking bright and healthy again. Love her! Worship her!
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
10-26-16 11:48 PM - Post#212012    
    In response to dperry

The grubbier the place, the more people seem to get attached to it -- at least at a distance. I'm a NJ transplant and now live in a small Colorado mountain town. Occasionally there will be a noisy group sitting in a corner of my local bar reminiscing about "home". The more they drink, the louder and more sentimental they get. They are usually from Texas or New Jersey.

Ah ... The Palestra!

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
11-02-16 06:31 PM - Post#212351    
    In response to SRP

Sure, there is probably some bias against the mids. Even so, there certainly aren't any situations in recent memory where an Ivy should have gotten consideration for an at-large, much less was unfairly treated. We really don't know what the committee reaction would be to a ranked Princeton team failing to get the auto bid, because it hasn't happened. There have been some mids that I was very disappointed to see left out in recent years, but there have been some at larges, as well. So I think there is a threshold where it is at least possible, even if there is bias in the system.

And once it happens, it's a lot easier for everybody to imagine it.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
11-03-16 01:03 PM - Post#212433    
    In response to Tiger69

OK, compared with the Rockies at sunset, the Palestra is not a cathedral.

But in almost every other comparison, it is.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
11-03-16 10:49 PM - Post#212471    
    In response to palestra38

I do miss the double headers with a Big 5 match preceding the Penn-Princeton game. I enjoyed watching the moth-eaten St. Joe's hawk doing figure eights on the court while the fans bellowed out "Oh, when the Hawks ...." It somehow eased the pain of our first round NCAA loss to them in Dollar Bill's sophomore year (1963). But, otherwise, Philly was such a depressing town.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
11-04-16 05:23 AM - Post#212472    
    In response to Tiger69

While I don't go quite as far back as thee, Philly is indeed a much better town to visit than it was in the days when it was famed for having the sidewalks roll up at 5. And the Palestra is still there.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Senior
Posts: 357

Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
11-04-16 10:08 AM - Post#212480    
    In response to palestra38

If you know of a better venue for college basketball than The Cathedral please share the news! If you've never been there when the house was full I feel sorry for you. Perhaps the tournament will fill the place. I hope so. I can't wait.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
11-04-16 10:16 AM - Post#212481    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

You badly misconstrued my post if you think I disagree with the Palestra being the greatest college basketball venue in the nation. And I have been there for hundreds of games when sold out (I broadcast the Penn games from there when I was a student in the late '70s---Penn had some rather good teams at the time).

All I was saying is that PHILADELPHIA is a much better place to visit now than it was in the '60s and early '70s.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
11-07-16 09:50 PM - Post#212667    
    In response to SRP

BYU plays a second exhibition game against Hawaii on Friday night. With the Tigers playing Hawaii later in the season, Coach H should be able to have the game scouted.

Fortunately, one of the bigs on BYU is a star defensive lineman, Kaufaski, at 6'9" so he will not be playing against the Tigers but two of the three best players are 6'10" and 6'8". There may be match up issues both ways especially if the Tigers play small. This game may be a test for Coach to figure out how to best utilize Brase/Caruso and others as he may need Brase on the floor with additional minutes to guard Davis at 6'8" with Brennan as a backup to Miller if Miller gets in foul trouble guarding the talented 6'10" player, Mika. The third star BYU player, Emery, is 6'2" scorer. The rest of the team appears to be a combination of three point shooters and role players.

Should be a very good test as to the Tigers ability to go against teams with talented front court players. Offensively, the Tigers should be fine especially if they hit some 3 point shots. Henderson will need flexibility to face very different non-conference teams.

 
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