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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



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Username Post: Mason Out for 2016-2017 Season        (Topic#19449)
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18484

Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 06:37 AM - Post#245340    
    In response to Mike Porter

We're taller and stronger. Yes, they have a bunch of 6'4 and under guys running around who can score. Our guards can cover them. What you saw against Temple and St Joe's should beat Brown at home.

But there is no question that we can shoot ourselves out of a "W". I take nothing for granted.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
02-01-18 09:21 AM - Post#245345    
    In response to mrjames

Is this really true? In KenPom, Brown is the #267 offense in the country. 7th best in the league. Yes, the game scares me in the sense that every game scares me, etc. and Cambridge and Anderson can go off any game. But this doesn’t look like a game where there would be any need to show up with a new defense. That seems like a good recipe for reducing our chances.

On the individual matchups, where do you see the issue? Is it Betley guarding Cambridge? I’m pretty confident in our bigs’ ability to keep up with Choh — I don’t see a matchup issue for us there.

We do show 1-3-1 some late in close games. Frankly, i’d Like to see less of it (against Columbia in particular it was a disaster).

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 777

Reg: 10-20-14
02-01-18 10:46 AM - Post#245353    
    In response to SomeGuy

Coach Martin was discussing Penn on his weekly show last night (which can be found on the ILN).

He feels that Penn has physical and mental toughness. He felt that Penn had a good offense, which is due to their ball movement and ability to spread the floor. He was impressed by Betley and Brodeur, specifically.

He was more impressed with their defense. Where Harvard gets in your face, tries to deny passes and attempts to disrupt a team's offense, Penn succeeds by strong gap defense and protecting the paint. They move teams away from the 3 point line and the rim, forcing opponents into a high number of unassisted two point jumpers.

FYI - Here are some numbers from last year's games.

Saturday 1/14/17
Brown 82 at Penn 70

Brown:
2 Pt 20-36 (56%)
3 Pt 6-17 (35%)
FT 24-26 (92%)
Rebounds 32 (10 O & 22 D)
TO 14
Points - Anderson 21, Speith 20, Okolie 14, Blackmon 12, Howard 4

Penn:
2 Pt 21-36 (58%)
3 Pt 4-19 (21%)
FT 16-19 (84%)
Rebounds 29 (10 O & 19 D)
TO 16
Points - Howard 20, Foreman 19, Brodeur 12, Donahue 8, MacDonald 0

Friday 2/17/17
Penn 96 at Brown 72

Brown:
2 Pt 11-25 (44%)
3 Pt 12-32 (38%)
FT 14-19 (74%)
Rebounds 23 (5 O & 18 D)
TO 15
Points - Speith 26, Howard 10, Anderson 9, Blackmon 9, Daugherty 5, Okolie 0

Penn:
2 Pt 20-30 (67%)
3 Pt 14-29 (48%)
FT 14-19 (74%)
Rebounds 43 (10 O & 33 D)
TO 18
Points - Betley 28, Donahue 20, Howard 11, Brodeur 10, Foreman 6

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 10:47 AM - Post#245354    
    In response to SomeGuy

The difference between 267 and national average isn't that large (~5pts per 100 poss or about 3.5 pts per game). So, they're not bad enough offensively where even if they really exploit their strengths, they'd still be a mediocre offense.

What's important is how they get to that number. They consistently bully their way to the free throw line (six of 16 games above 50% FT Rate, which is elite, and all but one of its games above the AVERAGE FT Rate for three Ivy teams). Between its gaudy free throw rate and its strong free throw shooting percentage, it's getting the fifth-highest percent of its points from the line in the nation. In Ivy play thus far, it's only increased those numbers (50% FT Rate average and 28% of points from the line). The only team that's had any success keeping Brown off the line was Dartmouth (which, though maligned previously, had the best defensive performance against Brown) due to it switching to zone.

Where Brown struggles is 1) if you can turn it into a jump shooting team or 2) if you have a credible shot blocker and turn the pressure up on the perimeter for steals. Harvard did both of those successfully with Chris Lewis on the floor and ran up big margins on Brown. But Lewis was in foul trouble (see above) and only played 15 mins - fortunately for Harvard, that was enough to provide a margin it couldn't squander.

Penn will be a 10-ish point favorite in both games, so my comments here are in the context of "worry relative to being a substantial favorite." I can just see a scenario where Penn can't keep Brown in front of it to force it to shoot jump shots, lets Brown get downhill where it doesn't have a credible shot blocker and has to foul, exposing its frontcourt depth issues. It's possible that even in that disaster scenario, Penn will have built up enough of an advantage (like Harvard did) to win regardless. From a personnel perspective, though, it's an interesting matchup, especially given the fact that Penn is 8-0 when holding opponents to a free throw rate under 30% and 4-6 over that mark.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18484

Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 11:00 AM - Post#245356    
    In response to mrjames

That's where the athleticism comes in. I don't see them getting past Foreman and Woods to get those fouls on our bigs. Our highest PF average is Max at 3.1--we're 324th in the nation in committing fouls. We don't allow assists, either, which is key to preventing fouls.

We've been a very very good defensive team and should be too much for Brown. Our Achilles heel is shooting, and that is the only thing that could keep it close.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1104

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Mason Out for 2016-2017 Season
02-01-18 11:48 AM - Post#245367    
    In response to palestra38

I wouldn't underestimate Brown's offense. I posted earlier that although Harvard held Brown to 10 points in 10.5 minutes, Brown scored 77 points. Only St. Mary's and Kentucky have scored more points against Harvard's defense. Certainly, Chris Lewis' foul trouble limiting him to 15 minutes significantly impacted Harvard's defense, but Anderson, Cambridge and Okolie keep coming at you and Hunsaker can shoot 3's. Will all due respect to what has been posted, these 3 guards are built to drive and shoot athletically to an extent I don't see on any other Ivy team.

Penn is a better team because of its bigs and its defense, but Penn better be able to score because Brown will. Here would be my concerns:
- Brown shoots more FT's than any other squad by far
- the 4 guards shoot 85% from the line
- Brown will drive the lane and draw fouls
- Brown can make 3's in bunches, but is not a high % shooting team
- Penn's most athletic defenders aren't its best shooters

I think palestra38 called it correctly. If Penn shoots well, it should win. If it doesn't, it could be close and, if it comes down to FT's, the odds may shift to Brown.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-01-18 11:49 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 12:20 PM - Post#245370    
    In response to palestra38

Not sure where you're getting the fouls number. On a per game basis Penn's committing about 18 which is roughly national average (167th) and on an FT Rate basis, Penn opponents are at 34%, which is 197th nationally.

I think maybe you're just looking at total number of fouls, which is helped by the fact that Penn (and other Ivies) have played the fewest games in the nation.

Max is committing 5.3 fouls per 40 mins, which is the 4th-highest mark among 48 Ivy regulars. The reason why his average is 3.1 is because he's only playing 60% of team minutes, in large part due to foul trouble.

There's a weak positive correlation between assist rate allowed and FT Rate allowed, but it's very weak (R^2 of 0.02).

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3436

Reg: 11-23-04
02-01-18 03:51 PM - Post#245403    
    In response to mrjames

'38, I'm not sure I agree with your superior athleticism argument, you may be surprised by Brown. Why is this discussion on the Yale Board? More room here?

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18484

Reg: 11-21-04
Mason Out for 2016-2017 Season
02-01-18 04:10 PM - Post#245407    
    In response to Old Bear

Yes, you can stretch out and really relax in here.

Last year, the difference between the two games was night and day as Donahue moved towards a new lineup. Penn is playing far better defense this year and is a completely different matchup than when we started Jackson Donahue and Matt McDonald last year. Make no mistake--I am worried about every game, this one included. But it will take Brown playing well while Penn plays poorly, in my opinion, for Penn to lose this one.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
02-01-18 05:08 PM - Post#245415    
    In response to Old Bear

This is the one place where there aren’t any home fans to complain about uninvited Penn posters dominating the conversation.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
02-01-18 05:10 PM - Post#245416    
    In response to mrjames

Well, the neat thing about Max getting in foul trouble is that it may solve the shot blocker problem by putting AJ in the middle. I think this is a game where we can play with Betley at the 4 for stretches.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3209

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-01-18 05:33 PM - Post#245421    
    In response to SomeGuy

  • SomeGuy Said:
This is the one place where there aren’t any home fans to complain about uninvited Penn posters dominating the conversation.



Honestly-- does Yale have any fans at all? What kinds of crowds do they get at PW?

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1748

Reg: 02-15-15
02-01-18 05:49 PM - Post#245424    
    In response to Silver Maple

I fear Brown. I have watched them play. Their offense is quite potent and this is a better Brown team than any in recent years. Provy to OT, Northwestern was 6 pt game late, split with Yale. This is not going to be a game in the 60’s. 70s or 80’s more likely. Penn can score and has a more balanced offense than Harvard IMO. Cambridge is a problem.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2395
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 06:00 PM - Post#245426    
    In response to PennFan10

Cambridge is really, really good for a frosh. Athletic and can shoot. Old Bear, how did Brown get him?!? It doesn’t look like he even had that many offers.

Excited to see how we do this weekend but concerned as always, haha.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2395
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 06:23 PM - Post#245430    
    In response to Mike Porter

P.S. love that fans from Penn, Princeton, Harvard and Brown are chatting it up on the Yale board.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3512

Reg: 02-04-06
02-01-18 07:05 PM - Post#245435    
    In response to Mike Porter

I was never that nuts about the split into separate boards in the first place.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 07:59 PM - Post#245437    
    In response to SRP

For Yale news, Mason not playing this weekend.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
02-01-18 08:16 PM - Post#245440    
    In response to mrjames

Don’t believe him SRP. It’s obviously a Harvard trick toconfuse the Ps.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3512

Reg: 02-04-06
02-01-18 08:33 PM - Post#245442    
    In response to SomeGuy

I'm starting to feel pretty bad for Mason at this point. This slow recovery cannot be fun.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3436

Reg: 11-23-04
Mason Out for 2016-2017 Season
02-01-18 09:14 PM - Post#245451    
    In response to Mike Porter

Mike, I believe Brown was on him early, He was in P'ton's and Penn's backyard at the Hun School, they must have seen him. You could say the same of Anderson, Choh and Okolie. MM, and staff are pretty good recruiters, and getting better at picking there spots.

 
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