HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-26-16 05:35 PM - Post#214142
Tough Loss.
Amaker is clearly tinkering.
Bassey starts, plays 27 minutes and only hits 2 free throws.
UMass presses, Aiken helps, but 0-9 from field
For second straight game, Corey Johnson hits 3's (2-2) to lead comeback, but only plays 10 minutes.
Lewis/Welsh start. Lewis never gets going and fouls out after playing 10 minutes. Welsh plays 33 minutes: 12 pts/ 8 rbs
Holloway at 6'11" 330lbs requires Zena's strength to neutralize. Zena plays 21 minutes (most this year) and has 10 rbs but misses some bunnies and finishes with only 5 pts.
Towns showed flashes of brilliance. Leading Harvard scorer at 17pts.
Robert Baker plays first minutes of the year! In 15 minutes hits top of key jumper, a 3, and slams back a rebound. Defense/rebounding liability though.
Siyani constantly trapped/pressed. Still looks a little rusty but hits 2 big 3's and has 6 assists.
Need someone who can guard Clark (29 pts)
Amaker is obviously still working the combinations and will be doing so for some time to come.
Refs were homers in a big way.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-26-16 05:55 PM - Post#214145
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
4 games, 4 different leading scorers
Stanford - Aiken 21
Fisher - Bassey 14
Holy Cross - Johnson 17
UMass - Towns 17
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-26-16 06:33 PM - Post#214150
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Yeah, Tommy doesn't care about winning games right now. I disagree with the approach, but he's pot committed to it now, so might as well hand the keys to the class of 16 and see if they can grow up in two short months.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-26-16 08:31 PM - Post#214155
In response to mrjames
Thanks. Sort of figured that out. At large bid not going to happen and likely tournament is all that matters, although it would be nice to take league play seriously.
It's still enjoyable to see what the different guys can do. Baker was the new addition today. 6'11" and shooting from 3' and top of the key!
I see a little more of a chess game developing. Wonder if Zena's aggressive post play means Amaker doesn't want him out there with Lewis at the same time. On the other hand, Lewis and Welsh seem to pass and cut better. Makes sense to separate Zena and play Lewis/Welsh in tandem with 6'7" Towns. I think Amaker is disappointed with Egi and so wants to try Baker with Zena. Baker doesn't seem to clog the lane but he's going to have to play better defense.
It's quite the rubik's cube, but there are 3 and a half months to get it right.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-29-16 10:38 PM - Post#214377
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Don't understand it.
Harvard can play small with Zena on the floor and when they do so Corey Johnson, Siyani and Bryce shoot 3's to bring Harvard back from a double digit deficit. At 4 minute mark Coach pulls Zena and plays Welsh with a small lineup. No inside offense at all and complete outrebounded.
I see the concept of have two bigs tandems Welsh/Lewis and Zena/Baker or Egi. However, when it comes down to it, Zena is your leader and the only one with proven experience. He had 4 blocks, missed only two shots, hit all 4 free throws and led the team in rebounding. Probably played only 20 minutes though.
Johnson was challenged against Cavanaugh at the 3 spot, but he led the comeback with 4 3's.
Johnson and Zena deserve more playing time.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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UMass
11-30-16 01:13 PM - Post#214431
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I get the sense that we're going to start seeing things move that direction.
Amaker wants this team to be good in Jan/Feb/March and wanted to see what he had early on rather than trying to grind out victories at the expense of learning about his team. I disagree with that approach, but I get it and do agree with sticking with it once you've started down that path.
Some things are pretty clear now, and I think we'll see lineups solidify around these (close to) facts:
1) For the first time since Brandyn Curry stepped onto campus, Harvard really doesn't have a perimeter stopper on D.
2) Losing Evan has been rough on the interior defense (especially from a help perspective), which is why the team has been toying with the Henry experiment.
1+2) Harvard is NOT going to be a complete, sound, disciplined defensive team this year. So, it has two options: put as many good, team defenders on the floor as possible OR just run a bunch of bouncy, pesky athletes out there and hope to disrupt what the opponents are trying to do. So far, Harvard has done a bit of both, but I think the benefits of the former haven't been enough over the latter to keep things from moving the direction of the latter.
3) Harvard hasn't had this kind of raw, individual offensive talent for quite some time - since the 2013-14 season. One of the stats I love looking at is Non-TO Offensive Rating (i.e. efficiency on possessions that don't end in a turnover). For me, this is a better representation of true offensive skill ceiling than normal offensive rating because turnover rate tends to decline over the course of the season, which will produce more efficiency gains for teams that can do more with non-turnover possessions.
Harvard's Non-TO Adj ORAT By Season:
2017: 131.4
2016: 126.4
2015: 126.0
2014: 136.2
2013: 134.2
2012: 133.5
2011: 135.8
2010: 134.1
2009: 125.2
2008: 123.1
After a couple really bad offensive years (still stunning to me that the 2015 team could win the league and was a miss at the buzzer away from the R32), Harvard is finally starting to see that ceiling rise again. And that's with some comically low shooting percentages from Bryce and Z (and sorta Seth as well).
4) The right offensive players to play are pretty obvious, and it's not obvious that other combinations would be better enough defensively to justify playing them over the better offensive players. What's more is that offense requires more continuity than defense (roughly 2X more), so if Harvard wants to be good, it should get lineups playing together more frequently ASAP. The best offensive lineup from a usage/efficiency perspective is probably Siyani, Bryce, Corey, Seth and Z. Depending on the matchups, you might give Welsh, Lewis, and Baker more or fewer rotation minutes. Beyond those eight, there may be room for a TMac, Juzang or Bassey, but they'll need to prove they can be efficient offensively.
Sure enough, from a minutes played perspective, last night was the first time that my preferred starting five got the top five most minutes and when most of those five were on the floor together, Harvard played some of its best basketball of the season.
I'd wager that we'll see an even more pronounced minutes distribution favoring those five going forward. And as that continues to happen, I think Harvard will continue to improve, hopefully culminating in a couple of strong performances in difficult, but winnable, post-break road games at Houston and Vermont.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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11-30-16 02:47 PM - Post#214446
In response to mrjames
Thanks Mike. Good to know I'm seeing what you're thinking. It's obviously too late to do anything resembling a second bid, so I guess experimenting should and can still happen, however, as you point out, the preferred unit and backup combo's need reps and experience together as well.
I think we all suspected that this squad is not up to the level of defensive play that we've previously been blessed with. That explains why Bassey, Welsh and Lewis have been starting. More than Cummins, I believe we're missing a Kyle Casey/Steve Mondou Missi type of forward. Seth has skills but the lack of bulk leads him to accumulate fouls (as did Kyle and Steve). With experience, maybe Lewis or Welsh can offer what Evan did, and maybe more.
I think Coach Amaker needs to look at league play. Most of the Ivy squads do not present height/rebounding issues, especially Brown, Dartmouth, Cornell and Penn. Even Princeton and Columbia, each of which field players with size, do not run their offense through the post often, especially when Brase and Petrasek are on the floor. Yale, and most OOC teams, will require the sort of interior defense Harvard has been trying to put on the court. Thus, I see the experiment continuing, but hopefully not at the cost of any more winnable games.
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