GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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12-12-16 06:14 PM - Post#215534
"Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately three thousand seven hundred and twenty to one."
"Never tell me the odds!"
―C-3PO and Han Solo —
Dartmouth Basketball
Predictions Update
Dec 11, 2016
• After losing to Maine 73-68 yesterday, Dartmouth is now projected to finish the regular season 5-22 (3-11 Ivy).
• We currently rank Dartmouth as the #312 team in the country, and the #8 team in the Ivy.
• Next game: Tue, Dec 13 at #326 Hartford. Our power ratings give the Big Green a 43% chance to win.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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GIQUAKER
Junior
Posts: 211
Reg: 02-27-06
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Re: HARTFORD 12-12-16 08:11 PM - Post#215542
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
I am thinking that the team gels and it's the first win of the season.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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Re: HARTFORD 12-12-16 08:35 PM - Post#215549
In response to GIQUAKER
Let's go Big Green!
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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Re: HARTFORD 12-13-16 10:09 AM - Post#215653
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Big Green Game Notes
Hartford Game Notes
Listen to the game here @ 4PM
Watch the Game here @ 4PM
Follow the stats live here.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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12-13-16 11:50 AM - Post#215669
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Go Big Green! Ivy League fans are hoping Dartmouth prevails today!
Thanks for the game details. I usually love KenPom rankings, but I don't understand how Dartmouth is ranked ahead of Hartford given the fact that Hartford beat BC in its last game and BC beat Dartmouth by 18. Since Dartmouth is currently winless, how could Dartmouth possibly have jumped ahead of a Hartford team that has won 3 games, including Sacred Heart and Rutgers (KP #132). Not meaning to be anti-Dartmouth at all, just confused.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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12-13-16 12:23 PM - Post#215677
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I don't have the answer for you. It's made even more curious because Kenpom.com has Hartford beating Dartmouth. The site also says Dartmouth should go 5-22 and 4-10 in the Ivy, but only shows 2 late wins in our future vs Brown & Cornell. But if we go by the current results and project by the rankings Dartmouth could conceivably go 0-27.
Thanks for supporting #oneivy. Dartmouth really is languishing now and needs all the support it can garner.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2201
Reg: 10-09-09
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12-13-16 02:05 PM - Post#215691
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
The difference in projections that you note reflects KenPom's cumulative probabilities. Say you have just a 40$ chance of winning every individual game. By individual projections, you should go 0-27, but the cumulative probabilities are such that you are likely to squeak out a few victories and not go completely winless.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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12-13-16 02:29 PM - Post#215694
In response to cc66
Thanks. That makes sense.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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SomeDartmouthStudent
Freshman
Posts: 68
Reg: 11-30-16
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12-13-16 05:35 PM - Post#215740
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
I have a good feeling tonight. Doesn't happen that often. Lets get this W!
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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12-13-16 06:23 PM - Post#215747
In response to SomeDartmouthStudent
I hope so because I've had this sickening feeling all day dreading another L.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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SomeDartmouthStudent
Freshman
Posts: 68
Reg: 11-30-16
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HARTFORD 12-13-16 11:02 PM - Post#215772
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Welp- I was incorrect. That was tough. Some pretty uninspiring play from the upperclassmen.
Interestingly enough, I was able to take a look at the Hollinger Player efficiency ratings for the ivy league (PER) and out of 67 players available to rating (players averaging above 6 MPG) Dartmouth has only two people inside the top 50. These two are Giulian (#36, 12.35) and Boudreaux (#7, 20.80).
Ike (#54, 8.81), Taylor (#56, 8.53)and Miles (#60, 7.10), presumed starters and upperclassmen, are literally at the bottom of the barrel for all players in terms of PER. Read into that as you will, but I think it might be time to start transitioning some of their minutes.
The one caveat is that PER isn't that great at judging defensive performance, but if you've watched at all this year you know that obviously isn't the case here.
I can diagnose the problem, but I certainly dont have a good solution.
Edited by SomeDartmouthStudent on 12-13-16 11:03 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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Re: HARTFORD 12-13-16 11:19 PM - Post#215774
In response to SomeDartmouthStudent
We're playing all the wrong guys. For all the wrong minutes. That's not the players fault.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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SomeDartmouthStudent
Freshman
Posts: 68
Reg: 11-30-16
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12-14-16 12:09 AM - Post#215777
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
No it isnt. I don't know what scenario is more concerning.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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12-14-16 12:11 AM - Post#215778
In response to SomeDartmouthStudent
What are the coaches saying? If anything?
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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picknroll
Freshman
Posts: 38
Reg: 11-21-04
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HARTFORD 12-14-16 12:14 AM - Post#215780
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
A few random observations:
1) Boudreaux has four assists in nine games. Admittedly, assists are not the be-all of statistical categories, but I'd think he'd have more than that if only by accident. I remember seeing something from McLaughlin in the preseason about going through Evan to try to get others more involved. That probably went out the window when the offense struggled, but does he make the players around him better to any meaningful degree?
2) When the player who has taken the second-most shots on your team has the lowest shooting percentage among players who have logged significant minutes, that's a coaching issue. And when that player has also taken the most 3s on your team and is shooting the lowest percentage from behind the arc, that's also a coaching problem. Specifically, that's the kind of thing that makes it look like the coach is not in control of what his players do on the floor. And that, in turn can have an impact on team chemistry if other players think a coach isn't willing to hold one of their teammates accountable. It's the sort of thing that can cause players to lose respect for their coach.
3) Speaking of accountability: At what point does Sheehy get held accountable for the McLaughlin hire? Cormier might not have been anybody's choice to lead a chorus of Kumbya, but give the man his due – he could recruit, he could game plan, and he could manage a game. If he's coaching this pretty talented team, I have no doubt they're no worse than 3-6, with wins over Marist, Maine and Hartford, probably Longwood, and maybe even Fairfield. 0-9? Are you kidding me.
Edited by picknroll on 12-14-16 12:16 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeDartmouthStudent
Freshman
Posts: 68
Reg: 11-30-16
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12-14-16 12:17 AM - Post#215781
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
I don't have a ton of insight. I know after previous games it was very much a keep moving, keep improving message. Not sure how that will change moving forward.
Judging by some of the lineup decisions and minute distributions, not much seems to be changing for the better.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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Re: HARTFORD 12-14-16 12:20 AM - Post#215782
In response to picknroll
This now is an unmitigated disaster and self inflicted which is the worst kind.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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12-14-16 12:21 AM - Post#215783
In response to SomeDartmouthStudent
What's the definition of insanity again????
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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12-14-16 12:59 AM - Post#215784
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
Dartmouth has 11 total steals in the last three games. That's not going to work.
I don't know exactly what McLaughlin's role was at Northeastern, but their defense got much less aggressive right when he arrived. That was fine with Scott Eatherton protecting the rim. But nobody on this team can block shots like that, and their defenders aren't good enough to stay on an island.
Maybe the more conservative style works in the long run, but it's all wrong for this team.
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GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 805
Age: 51
Reg: 05-19-16
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12-14-16 01:06 AM - Post#215785
In response to whitakk
I agree 1000%. The results indicate that the system doesn't work for the players he has. The players he has do have some talent.
Right now the approach is that of a coach who is hell bent on pursuing a non effective strategy with the wrong players. Again the results speak volumes. This team should not have collapsed like this from last year to this year.
"...no excuses - only results!†|
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