Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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2018 recruiting
10-09-17 02:48 PM - Post#233624
In response to palestra38
"I'm not going pure Luddite here... except for the part where I throw out all the stats that don't fit my theory of the case" he said unironically
And it's not like I'm the only person who thinks Woods wasn't as good as you do. Why do you do that to him? You unfairly put expectations on kids that makes people who see the truth have to tear a kid down. I'm thrilled he's coming back. But that doesn't mean I expect him to be good.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21372
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: 2018 recruiting
10-09-17 02:57 PM - Post#233626
In response to Jeff2sf
Say what you want, but at least Woods has athletic upside. We need to have some non-freshmen who can make up for Howard's absence in this area.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3620
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 02:59 PM - Post#233627
In response to Jeff2sf
I'm looking forward to this season for sure, and hoping we are above expectations. Above expectations is what, maybe a 3rd place finish and winning a game in the Ivy tournament? Dream scenario is we upset the apple cart and win the whole thing?
The reality is we are still behind the top 3 - doesn't mean our season won't be fun and exciting, but we are far from the favorite.
If we want Penn to rise again to the top 1/2 kind of position, in this day and age of Ivy Basketball you just can't whiff on an entire class. That will be a big setback when we are still trying to climb the ladder.
If we miss on Cotton, besides Mike Wang, do we have literally anyone left on the recruiting board?!
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3620
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 03:05 PM - Post#233628
In response to Mike Porter
and P.S. I am actually really looking forward to this season and think that it will be a fun one.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-09-17 03:06 PM - Post#233629
In response to Mike Porter
i am too. i really am.
But where we may part company is that part of that is knowing there's an IL tourney that we could win. If there wasn't, I'd not be as pumped.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 03:12 PM - Post#233631
In response to Mike Porter
I've said this before on here - the "final quarter" talk is really tricky.
Yes, Penn was No. 130 over the final month of the season (9 games - starting with the win over Columbia). That's was a close third to second-place Harvard and way ahead of Yale. BUT, looking at the final 5 games of the year, Penn was No. 207. And that was a DISTANT fourth.
That's not great, consistent information that Penn was pointed in the right direction.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3620
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 03:15 PM - Post#233632
In response to Jeff2sf
This is totally fair Jeff, and also probably why I am still excited. I would always be interested, but this does step it up.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 03:21 PM - Post#233633
In response to mrjames
Actually, Penn played very well in every game over those 9 except for the Dartmouth home game. And best of all, in those 9 games, the points scored by the AJ-Betley-Goodman trio were 26, 50, 49, 35, 38, 33, 37, 34 and 32. They were freshmen! So if you add Woods, Foreman has a good senior year, we get some bounds and easy points from Rothschild in his minutes and we get the off the dribble shooting from Donahue and Jones, we have a lot of points before even thinking about the freshmen. Penn will have a lot of depth this year and if the freshman class is as good as advertised, we have a chance to compete.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3591
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-09-17 03:26 PM - Post#233634
In response to Mike Porter
I am more optimistic on Woods than I have represented. I only reported what I have heard since his return. I liked him as a player and am more in P38's camp that he will be better used in this version of SD's system than he was on a talentless team 2 years ago.
I believe AW can be a starter for this team and a major contributor. Based on his participation and progress thus far I was pessimistic that could happen.
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section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-09-17 03:42 PM - Post#233637
In response to mrjames
Keep on trolling. In the Ivy tournament, and over its last four games, Harvard was the fourth best team in the league.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 03:46 PM - Post#233639
In response to palestra38
What does "compete" mean to you? The context of where you see other Ivies and what you're competing for is important. To me, competing for the one seed means being a Top 75 team. Having a reasonable shot at stealing a tourney game at home or maybe even two probably is more like Top 150.
While I think the latter is possible, the former is seemingly crazy talk.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 03:52 PM - Post#233640
In response to mrjames
Over Harvard's final 4 games, it was No. 119 nationally. Over the same span, Princeton was No. 43, Yale was 126 and Penn was No. 213.
Trolling is throwing purposely inflammatory opinions out there meant to provoke others. I'm literally just reading you the facts.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3591
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-09-17 03:59 PM - Post#233641
In response to mrjames
Didn't Harvard lose to all 3 of those teams in it's final 4 games?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 04:12 PM - Post#233642
In response to mrjames
Trolling is acknowledging that the numbers for the last 9 games are much better than the last 4 (as well as a larger sample) and then trying to make a point using only the last 4.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-09-17 04:12 PM - Post#233643
In response to palestra38
no, no that's not at all what trolling is.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 04:17 PM - Post#233644
In response to palestra38
That's not really trolling, and that's not what I was trying to do either. My point merely is that if you wanted to use the final 9, which is a really small sample, you'd feel more comfortable if two halves of the 9 were closer than Top 50 team and non-Top 200 team. That's what makes Penn's final 9 game ranking so pointless, because it didn't really ever play like that average team.
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section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-09-17 04:25 PM - Post#233645
In response to mrjames
It's ranking for the season may have been 119 over the last four games; but, in the last games it lost to Penn, Princeton & Yale.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 04:26 PM - Post#233646
In response to mrjames
That's why I tried to give you the numbers on the 3 freshmen, which were pretty consistent over that period. The variance occurred primarily among guys like Donahue and Jones, who aren't going to play as much this year. Moreover, their 3 losses in the last 9 were by 2,3 and 8 in OT while their wins (except for Harvard) were big wins. I think they played pretty consistently well over that period. But I agree that it is a small sample. We'll just have to see how it goes from the start this year. It will be important not to burn out AJ as they did last year. But there are more options.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 04:47 PM - Post#233651
In response to section110
No, that's the ranking from that four-game sample.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4373
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-09-17 05:08 PM - Post#233653
In response to mrjames
Penn was a pretty uneven team with results that ranged from a home loss to Dartmouth and a home victory over Harvard. My guess is if we don't have a few new bodies in the mix, we'll be uneven again. I doubt Brodeur hits the wall like he did last year and that ought to help some. Still .....,
I happen to think Woods looked very good in most of the games leading up to his academic issues. The 3 point shooting wasn't great but we don't get great 3 point shooting from our other pg candidates. So I'm guessing he starts. I also think if our freshmen don't see the court early on, we'll end up with the same team we put on the floor last year.
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