Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-19-17 09:44 PM - Post#233005
In response to SomeGuy
If Penn were fortunate enough to have Matt Cotton commit, he would definitely be a top 5 recruit in this class.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-19-17 10:21 PM - Post#233006
In response to Mike Porter
To be honest, "definitely" is a stretch. It's possible he'd be a Top 5 player in the class - depends on what some of the other targets on the board decide to do.
I think he'd be a top 5 player right now, but all depends on what gets added down the stretch. That being said, there isn't a lot of quality left - this class looked great/deep and then fizzled fast over the summer, so it's possible he'd end up as a Top 5 kid in the 2018 Ivy class. If so, that'd be an even weaker class than it is currently expected to be.
|
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-20-17 12:07 AM - Post#233010
In response to mrjames
Fair enough - "definitely" was strong considering I only can see public offers and I don't know what else might be out there I haven't seen.
That said, of the current commits only Llewellyn and Freedman have public offers at the level of Matt Cotton, regardless of whether or not he ends up at Penn. So if the Ivy has a class with him in the top 5 recruits and it is considered "weak" that's pretty damn impressive!
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
09-20-17 12:29 AM - Post#233011
In response to Mike Porter
Matt Cotton is definitely top 5.
|
Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2018 recruiting
09-20-17 02:38 AM - Post#233012
In response to besnoah
Maka Ellis is interesting, but Penn wasn't mentioned in 3 officials he was planning (Lehigh, Columbia, Cornell) nor was he mentioned for in-home visits last few weeks. Interesring he is announcing tomorrow before a scheduled visit to Cornell this coming weekend. Since he just visited Columbia this past weekend it feels like Lions will be the choice. Looks like it would be a great pickup for them if so.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-20-17 07:56 AM - Post#233014
In response to Mike Porter
Important to remember that there is a difference between the offers you have and the offers you had.
Right now, I think Cotton would be a Top 5 player in the class. There are four kids on the board right now though that would bump him and a couple more that would be in the conversation. Not all of those (possibly not many) will go Ivy, so I'd feel confident saying he'll definitely be a Top 10 player in this class.
|
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4358
Reg: 11-21-04
|
Re: 2018 recruiting
09-20-17 10:47 AM - Post#233029
In response to Mike Porter
Mike James does some interesting quantitative analytics, but in the end his predictions aren't really all that more accurate than what most of us would come up with. The one positive is that his work is devoid of emotion which is the thing that often leads many fans of a particular team, including me, to think with the heart when the head alone might lead to a more accurate conclusion.
As for recruiting, I think he is only moderately less in the dark that most of us. Yes - he does talk to some people "in the know", but even the people who run these Ivy programs get it wrong and many evaluate kids and their potential very differently.
No one would have thought the kids who've been driving Princeton's success would have been top Ivy recruits. I mean - Steven Cook, Weisz, Caruso? And look at Yale - neither Oni nor Mason were all that highly rated or highly regarded for that matter.
We have a league where stars sometimes matter, but in many cases they don't. Case in point - Ryan Betley!
|
TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
|
09-20-17 10:57 AM - Post#233030
In response to AsiaSunset
I invited Mike to opine because I find his views informative and more accurate than anyone else. I have no statistical analysis to back that up.
I also trust coaching staffs with good recruiting track records. Mitch Henderson is consistently good.
No one is going to be 100% accurate.
|
AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4358
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-20-17 11:24 AM - Post#233032
In response to TheLine
Mikes opinions are always welcomed. I was just making the point that he misses as much as he hits when it comes to this stuff. It's not his fault. It's the nature of recruiting at our level.
|
section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
|
09-20-17 12:39 PM - Post#233036
In response to mrjames
Who are these mystery four plus kids? My only "knowledge" is that I read Verbal Commits, look at the ESPN top 100 list & get a couple of pre-season guides. On those Llewllyn, Freeman & Cotton are the only Ivy targets mentioned. ESPN lists David Duke of Cushing Academy as having offers from Brown & Columbia. Cotton is the highest rated on VC. Sean Good (3.5) and Trey Wertz & Isiah Kelly (both 2.5) & Solomon U. on the Columbia are the next highest rated. nychoops is probably the only poster who may have seen a number of these guys play or have reliable second knowledge. So who are the potential stars still on the H/Y/P radar who relegate Cotton out of the top five if they go Ivy?
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-20-17 01:59 PM - Post#233041
In response to section110
Noah Kirkwood, Mason Forbes, Greg Foster Jr. and Trey Jemison are all better prospects than Cotton. Whether or not they end up in the Ivies remains to be seen, but they're better.
Maka Ellis ending up at Columbia would be sort of in the same range as Cotton. Drew Peterson would be in the same range as well.
Isaiah Kelly will end up in the Ivy, but Cotton's ahead of him. Both those guys are most likely to end up at Yale, FWIW.
|
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
|
09-20-17 02:27 PM - Post#233047
In response to mrjames
so he's not that good, but the good news is we're not likely to get him.
This is fine.
|
T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
|
2018 recruiting
09-20-17 02:28 PM - Post#233048
In response to mrjames
Isaiah Kelly will end up in the Ivy, but Cotton's ahead of him. Both those guys are most likely to end up at Yale, FWIW.
I'm confused. Last week you wrote, "I can't even tell who Penn is battling for Cotton. Seems like he's theirs to lose, though I'm not totally on top of this one to be honest." Now you're telling us he likely ends up at Yale?
Edited by T.P.F.K.A.D.W. on 09-20-17 02:28 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-20-17 03:16 PM - Post#233053
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Life comes at you fast in September/October.
|
section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
|
09-20-17 03:22 PM - Post#233054
In response to mrjames
But VC and/or 247 Sports only shows Foster as having Ivy interest (Brown).
|
T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
|
09-20-17 03:39 PM - Post#233057
In response to mrjames
Life comes at you fast in September/October.
Pardon me while I shove my head in the oven.
|
westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
|
09-20-17 04:06 PM - Post#233061
In response to section110
"But VC and/or 247 Sports only shows Foster as having Ivy interest (Brown)."
I don't think these sites come close to knowing everything that is going on. The kid that Yale just got wasn't showing on their board until he announced.
Harvard has almost no players on their page but I'd guess they are doing some recruiting. And I haven't seen anyone all year on Princeton's page until players commit.
|
mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
|
09-20-17 04:44 PM - Post#233062
In response to westphillywarrior
FWIW, I think Penn lands Mike Wang. So, there's that.
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
|
09-20-17 06:09 PM - Post#233065
In response to mrjames
Maka Ellis to Columbia - https://twitter.com/makaellis/status/9106 183262120...
|
Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3992
Reg: 11-23-04
|
09-20-17 07:48 PM - Post#233071
In response to rbg
At the risk of sounding like my BFF, T'69, I must admit I take some solace in the "woe is me" posts on this Quaker Board. The good news is the Brown today announced we would be taking the loan portion out of FA packages. It may be very little, very late, but it is a small step in the right direction.
|
