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Username Post: 2018 recruiting        (Topic#19696)
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2151
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
08-24-17 01:30 PM - Post#232365    
    In response to Tiger69

I'm concerned that we are at this point putting all our eggs into only 1 or 2 baskets for 3* plus kids, but if we can land 1 (Matt Cotton please) then all will be forgiven for now.

It is critical to have another top tier recruiting class this year if we want to get back to the top. This isn't the world in the Ivy any more where you can whiff on a whole class and still win (we all know Dunphy whiffed on some years even though I'm a big fan). The Ivy world has changed and we've at least got to keep up or we'll continue to stay out of reach.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4652

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
2018 recruiting
08-24-17 01:31 PM - Post#232366    
    In response to Tiger69

While the average AI targets that each team has for its non-football recruited athletes are a closely guarded state secret, it's reasonable to assume that they're somewhere in the low 200s with HYP being slightly higher than others (but that gap has closed SIGNIFICANTLY since I've covered the league).

Let's assume that the target to hit is 205. At the beginning of this decade, the AI floor was 171. So, a perfectly reasonable thing to do would be to take three kids right at the floor and take three kids with perfect AIs. That would just slip over your 205 average. Now, some schools might not have the ability to take kids at the floor at all, while others might only be able to pursue one special target at that level, even if they could hit their average regardless.

Traditionally, the 170s and 180s have been the "no fly" or "limited fly" zones for those schools taking a more restrictive approach than the floor, while 190s and above really need to shirk their application duties to raise flags.

Well, five years ago, they raised the AI to 176 (to account for class rank/GPA arbitrage), which had been the first rise in the AI since it went from 169 to 171 in the summer of 2003. That chopped five points off that no/limited fly zone. A couple summers ago that 176 became 178. Then, this season, the 178 rose to 183 (to account for the fact that the ACT was yielding higher AIs consistently).

Given that something around the 190s is a pretty green light level for all, the fact that schools that had a green light to the floor saw their relatively exclusive part of the pool shrink from 19 points at the beginning of the decade to 14, then to 12 and now down to 7, makes recruiting far more competitive in the remaining area above the floor. I expect this to prompt a bit of an adjustment period for Penn.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1001

Reg: 02-15-15
2018 recruiting
08-24-17 02:20 PM - Post#232369    
    In response to Tiger69





Edited by PennFan10 on 08-24-17 02:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 547

Reg: 11-29-04
08-24-17 04:20 PM - Post#232374    
    In response to PennFan10

Mike (and Asia), I'm curious if your views on the impact of AI at all affect your view that there isn't really a financial aid effect for HYP vs. the rest. While I earlier feared that the financial aid disparity might have a meaningful impact on recruiting, people who knew the situation better than me (you two) assured me it isn't a big deal. I have accepted it as truth, as I think you both have objectivity and knowledge. In a period when the AI is being compressed, however, would an even slight financial aid advantage create a bigger edge for HYP vs. the rest?

Although I expect many comments no matter what you reply, I am genuinely interested in your views.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4652

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
08-24-17 06:38 PM - Post#232382    
    In response to Penndemonium

Not really. I mean, I'd prefer a most favored nations calculation where every school can offer the best possible package or outright athletic scholarships (watch this league take off!), but at least on the basketball side, it's not a big deal. There's three classifications of prospects, really: 1) those that basically have to pay full (don't bother); 2) those that basically get a full ride from everyone (no real advantage); 3) those in that transition part from full ride to full pay (where different schools can give different reads).

If you happen to be in on one of the latter prospects without another Ivy that might be able to give a more generous read that you could match, you might end up not being in the best possible situation versus non-Ivy athletic scholarships and is the difference between paying some or some plus a little more. What it isn't (any more) is if only Princeton had joined in the pursuit of this kid we could have matched its full ride offer, but alas we're stuck with our five figure read.

I just don't think the differences in FA are terribly meaningful (any more).

 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 547

Reg: 11-29-04
08-24-17 06:57 PM - Post#232383    
    In response to mrjames

Thanks, Mike. I'm not sure I understand completely, but what I think I hear you saying is that in the #3 situation (where people need aid but aren't getting a full ride), the ivies can give pretty comparable aid to each other. So the real problem with students in that 3rd bucket is that a non-ivy can probably give a better read and package overall. There is a disparity to non-scholarship schools, but little to no disparity within the ivies.

Is that right?

While I had my doubts, I can accept that until I hear otherwise from a person with more direct knowledge (and not just fear-based reactions).

 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 786
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
2018 recruiting
08-24-17 08:53 PM - Post#232387    
    In response to mrjames

(While I am anti-athletic scholarship, the following is not intended as an anti-schollie screed, just an observation).

One reason I doubt scholarships will come into play for bball is that if you do it for one sport, you pretty much have to do it for all sports, and the Ivies have a disproportionately large number of supported sports. This would further the systemic advantage of better endowed schools.


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4145

Reg: 11-22-04
08-24-17 09:56 PM - Post#232389    
    In response to mrjames

Mike,

I believe you mentioned earlier that part of the AI issue for Penn is that we now have to fish where HYP more or less get their pick of recruits. My impression is that Penn has few, if any, true recruiting victories over HYP in recent years. To me, the question is why that happens. I'm not sure you can fully discount the FA issue, because we don't ultimately know what drives recruits' reasoning. and even if we could, FA can be tied into other factors in ways that are hard to distinguish. For example, I think sometimes players will choose who was recruiting them "first" or appeared most interested. There may be an advantage to the first mover on FA as a showing of interest.m just matching that later eliminates the gap in terms of money, but it may not in terms of perception of who wants the player most.

For the record, I think FA is only a small part of why Penn has been losing recruiting battles to HYP in recent years. The quickest remedy would be to start winning more games. Right now, HYP have brand advantages to a degree AND a basketball advantage. That's a tough double whammy.

But to me, the FA discrepancy is something to fix simply from a fairness perspective. The simple fact that we can argue about whether it matters is reason enough to find a way level the playing field.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2151
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
08-25-17 12:37 AM - Post#232390    
    In response to SomeGuy

Don't know if it means anything, but I saw on St. Joes board that Matt Cotton officially enrolled at Eastern HS, in Voorhees, NJ. Not too far from Philly, so should give the coaches a chance to see a lot of games and get a lot of facetime.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2151
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2018 recruiting
08-25-17 01:05 AM - Post#232391    
    In response to besnoah

  • besnoah Said:
Josh Verlin‏
Archbishop Wood (Pa.) 2018 G Andrew Funk tells me he's down to three schools: Bucknell, Penn and Delaware. Funk, a 6-4 guard, will be taking officials to each. Bucknell (Aug. 25-27), Delaware (Aug. 30-31) and Penn (Sep. 8-10).

Also missed this from 8/7

Dinos Trigonis‏
Final schools for 6-5 2018 Maka Ellis (Sierra Vista/Las Vegas NV): Columbia, Penn, Cornell, Bucknell, Lehigh, Santa Clara & Nevada




Ellis has set three officials: Lehigh, Cornell and Columbia


 
Stuart Suss 
Masters Student
Posts: 836

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
08-25-17 10:18 AM - Post#232397    
    In response to Mike Porter

With respect to the new AI of 183:

1. What SAT or ACT scores will produce a 183?
2. Do GPA and class rank still count in the calculation of the AI or have both been eliminated?

Thanks.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1001

Reg: 02-15-15
2018 recruiting
08-25-17 10:30 AM - Post#232398    
    In response to Stuart Suss

AI is a blend of test scores and GPA. As I understand it is comprised of two thirds test score and one third GPA. So a 4.0 (on a 4.0 scale) and a 36 ACT would produce a perfect AI of 240. Ivy teams, as MrJ has stated, have to manager to an average so if they take a 183 student athlete, they need another one at 220 to get to a 200 average AI.

If my math is right (and there is a good chance it isn't!) one could technically have a 23 ACT and a 4.0 GPA to get to roughly 183. Practically that's unlikely but you get the idea. More likely you are looking at a 26-27 ACT and around a 3.4 GPA as the minimum.

These are all approximations but I think it's close.

Edited by PennFan10 on 08-25-17 10:31 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
pennhoops 
Postdoc
Posts: 2414

Reg: 11-21-04
08-25-17 04:51 PM - Post#232419    
    In response to Stuart Suss

  • Stuart Suss Said:


2. Do GPA and class rank still count in the calculation of the AI or have both been eliminated?

Thanks.



Very few high schools have a class rank any longer. Furthermore, it'll be interesting to see what happens to the AI once admissions departments start doing away with the SAT and/or more high schools get rid of GPA.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3265

Reg: 11-23-04
08-26-17 06:03 PM - Post#232434    
    In response to pennhoops

The AI dies? Be still my beating heart.

 
rbg 
Senior
Posts: 387

Reg: 10-20-14
08-28-17 04:44 PM - Post#232459    
    In response to besnoah

It appears that Harvard has just made an offer to Trey Wertz.

 
rbg 
Senior
Posts: 387

Reg: 10-20-14
08-30-17 09:18 AM - Post#232485    
    In response to rbg

According to a tweet Amir Harris (2 star combo guard) sent out on 8/23/17, he has trimmed his list and is deciding between Temple and URI. As a result, Penn has been dropped from his list.

It would be great if I could post something positive on this thread.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4652

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
08-30-17 09:50 AM - Post#232489    
    In response to rbg

Be patient. Still a lot of time and a lot of prospects left out there. Enough Ivies have splintered off in the prospects they're deeply pursuing that I think there are fewer true Ivy vs. Ivy battles than it may seem. So long as Penn's top prospects are very interested in landing in the Ivy, I don't see it swinging and missing entirely.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1001

Reg: 02-15-15
08-30-17 12:27 PM - Post#232500    
    In response to mrjames

MRJ is right on. Good news coming I believe.

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 134

Age: 36
Reg: 01-08-11
08-31-17 12:15 PM - Post#232521    
    In response to PennFan10

Great! You should know. You are talking about Matt Cotton, right? When should we expect some news?

 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 547

Reg: 11-29-04
08-31-17 01:28 PM - Post#232526    
    In response to westphillywarrior

Can it be? That guy looks like he would be a beast in the ivies. He would fill the Matt Howard role and then some.

 
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