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Username Post: Ivy Title/Tourney Odds        (Topic#19752)
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4902

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-13-17 11:39 AM - Post#218166    

Finally got a moment to fire up the old R script and (with some changes to account for needing to know order not just winner) here's where we stand:

Share/Solo Title Odds
share solo
brown 0% 0%
columbia 2% 1%
cornell 0% 0%
dartmouth 0% 0%
harvard 25% 12%
penn 9% 3%
princeton 65% 43%
yale 30% 14%

That makes a fair deal of sense. Since I run this off KP, and KP is still adding some sort of bias to the results when it comes to stickiness of his rankings, Princeton remains far ahead of where it is in other ranking systems. Add to that the fact that an average difficulty game has been passed with a win and it's no wonder that the Tigers are a decent-sized favorite.

Penn would be a bit closer to Harvard and Yale, but obviously starting 0-1 (even with it being the most difficult Ivy game on every team's schedule) knocks it down a little bit.

Worth noting as well that, at present, we have about 27% odds of two teams tying for the number one seed.

Average Exp Wins By Team:
avgwins
brown 4.7
columbia 6.1
cornell 4.8
dartmouth 3.5
harvard 9.0
penn 8.0
princeton 10.5
yale 9.2

Here we start to see the Top 4/Bottom 4 gap in more concrete, tourney-relevant stats. Columbia is clearly the leader of the chase pack, but is still 1.9 expected wins behind Penn. That's only slightly less than the gap between Penn and first (2.5 wins).

Top 4 finish odds and overall tourney odds:
first second third fourt h tourneyodds
brown 0% 1% 2% 6% 9%
columbia 1% 4% 8% 17% 29%
cornell 0% 1% 3% 8% 11%
dartmouth 0% 0% 1% 1% 2%
harvard 18% 27% 26% 19% 8 9%
penn 6% 15% 26% 26% 72%
princeton 54% 26% 12% 6% 98%
yale 21% 27% 24% 18% 90%

And now the gap is really clear. Harvard, Princeton and Yale are all at 90%+ to make the tourney, while Penn remains at a solid 72%. Columbia has a decent shot at near 30%, while Cornell and Brown are down near 10%. Dartmouth has already lost an average to slightly-below-average game on its schedule, so it's really, really in a deep hole.

Finally, the wins required for fourth place:
5 6 7 8 9 10
0.003 0.074 0.335 0.450 0.134 0.004

Right now, it looks like 7-7 or 8-6 is going to be the most likely fourth seed record.

NOW, the fun part. How might some weekend scenarios affect the tourney odds:

Penn loses to Yale (other weekend games remain at same odds):

Penn drops to 64% to make the tourney, while Yale vaults up to 96% (breaking on the road amongst the Top 4 is going to be HUGE this year in terms of solidifying one's spot).

Penn beats Yale (all else equal):

Penn's tourney odds rise to 82%, while Yale's fall only a little bit to 87%. More importantly, the odds of the chase pack all fall a little (starting out with a loss makes Penn the most vulnerable to falling out and winning a Top 4 game will solidify their chances). Meanwhile, it becomes slightly more likely that it's going to take 8-6 not 7-7 to claim the final tourney spot.

Yale sweeps:
Yale rises to 98% to make the tourney and becomes the odds on favorite to win at least a share of the title (59%). Princeton still is in great shape (96%) to make the tourney. Obviously Penn remains at around ~64% to make the tourney.

Yale gets swept:
It's a tough roadie, so Yale is still in decent shape (82%) to make the tourney. Princeton is essentially a lock (99.3%). Penn is in good shape as well (80%). Harvard remains pretty much unaffected at 87%.

What the bottom four want:
Any scenarios that cause separation amongst the Top 4 are welcome. The WORST case scenario for the bottom four is that the top 4 comes darn close to splitting with each other. While that would be the best scenario for sneaking away with the title, it's also the worst scenario for making the path to fourth easier. Thus, as we progress throughout this year, the bottom four will want to see a dominant Princeton team and one of the other Top 4 be dominant as well, to push down the 3rd/4th place win totals closer to 7 or even under.

Happy to run any other scenarios as well!

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2226
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
01-13-17 07:21 PM - Post#218199    
    In response to mrjames

Very cool and interesting to see those various scenarios. Would love to see this as the season goes on.

 
Columbia Alum 
Junior
Posts: 226

Age: 31
Reg: 11-15-11
01-14-17 12:48 PM - Post#218270    
    In response to Mike Porter

This analysis is great, helps quantify what many of us have been feeling. Would love to see a couple updates through the ivy season, thanks!

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 567

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Ivy Title/Tourney Odds
01-14-17 12:59 PM - Post#218272    
    In response to mrjames

It is indeed interesting analysis. If I understand the analysis correctly, there are three teams with a reasonably chance to win the regular season and draw a #1 seed. There are two teams with a reasonable chance to draw the #4 seed. Based on the numbers and obviously things can change with injuries and other factors, there are five teams in the mix to get into the IL playoffs that will ultimately decide the NCAA bid. Three of the teams will statistically have a high percentage of winning the IL Tournament, I assume.

Which will be more challenging -- win the IL regular season or the IL tournament?? Different question as to what is the right way to decide which team goes to the NCAA tournament.

 
TigerFan 
Masters Student
Posts: 968

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Ivy Title/Tourney Odds
01-14-17 10:37 PM - Post#218356    
    In response to mrjames

Mike, It looks like you (or KenPom's computer) got a little ahead of yourself anointing Penn the #4 team. Did you run the scenario of the Quacker's racing out to an 0-3 start and just not share for fear of suffering their fan's wrath?

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4902

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-15-17 09:03 AM - Post#218382    
    In response to TigerFan

Odds update:

Tourney odds (make; semiL, finalL, bid):
BRN - 29%; 24%, 4%, 1%
COL - 43%; 33%, 8%, 3%
COR - 12%; 10%, 1%, 0%
DAR - 2%; 2%, 0%, 0%
HAR - 92%; 51%, 23%, 18%
PENN - 27%; 15%, 6%, 6%
PRN - 99%; 28%, 27%, 44%
YALE - 96%; 37%, 32%, 28%

Wins by the 5th place team across all simulations:
8 - 5%
7 - 28%
6 - 50%
5 - 17%
4 - 0.5%

Wins by the 4th place team across all simulations:
9 - 7%
8 - 33%
7 - 45%
6 - 15%
5 - 0.3%

Top playoff group odds:
1) COL, HAR, PRN, YALE - 35%
2) BRN, HAR, PRN, YALE - 22%
3) HAR, PENN, PRN, YALE - 20%
4) COR, HAR, PRN, YALE - 9%

 
Columbia Alum 
Junior
Posts: 226

Age: 31
Reg: 11-15-11
01-15-17 09:35 AM - Post#218386    
    In response to mrjames

Thank you for the update! Still looks wide open among the bottom 5 to make the tourney. Personally, I would increase Dartmouths odds a little, because they've improved since their awful start to '16-'17.

 
Bryan 
Sophomore
Posts: 112

Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
01-15-17 01:10 PM - Post#218402    
    In response to Columbia Alum

Is Penn treated as a home team or a neutral team in the Ivy playoffs?

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4902

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-15-17 01:33 PM - Post#218403    
    In response to Bryan

I treat them as a full home team.

 
dperry 
Masters Student
Posts: 826
dperry
Loc: Oreland, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
01-16-17 11:55 AM - Post#218483    
    In response to mrjames

Looking at the historical record, since the league went to eight teams in 1953-54, here's what the fourth-place teams have done (number in parenthesis is the number of times there was a tie in which someone would have been eliminated):

5 wins: 1 time (1), 1.59%
6 wins: 10 times (6), 17.46%
7 wins: 30 times (11), 47.62%
8 wins: 12 times (2), 19.05%
9 wins: 9 times (0), 14.29%

Total: 62 seasons. Average: 7.29 wins

Note: in '62-'63, Cornell finished in 4th at 6-7; their second game with Columbia was snowed out twice and not made up. I've thrown that year out here.

The women have been similar, albeit shifted slightly higher (went to eight teams in 1986-87):

6 wins: 2 times (2), 6.67%
7 wins: 13 times (5), 43.33%
8 wins: 12 times (1), 40.00%
9 wins: 2 times (0), 6.67%
10 wins: 1 time (0), 3.33%

Total: 30 seasons. Average: 7.57 wins

So realistically, you need eight wins to have a good shot at making the cut (80%-85% of the time after allowing for tiebreakers.) Seven wins looks like it's less than 50-50 after considering ties.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 428

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
01-16-17 12:02 PM - Post#218485    
    In response to dperry

That's easy enough to understand.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4902

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-16-17 03:33 PM - Post#218524    
    In response to dperry

For Penn, seven is a little better than 50/50 and that's when I'm just randomizing ties.

I haven't programmed in the tiebreaker rules, though I do know that Penn is going to win the third tiebreaker (ratings) if it gets there. RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, BPI are all considered and unless BPI is wildly out of sync with Sagarin and KenPom, Penn should only lose that tiebreaker to Columbia if Columbia is wildly unlucky at arriving at the same Ivy record as Penn (i.e. Columbia has a huge +MOV and Penn has a huge -MOV and both finish with the same record).

Now, before I give Penn the huge tiebreaker advantage, it's worth noting that if the Quakers lose at Brown, they'll lose the first tiebreaker (H2H) if they end up in a tie with the Bears. That being said, it's not all that much of a stretch that, if two teams end up tied for fourth, it'll come down to that ratings tiebreaker. Last year, if Harvard hadn't beaten Princeton and thus finished tied for 4th at 5-9 with Penn, the ratings tiebreaker would have been the deciding factor.

Also, it's important to note that how many wins it'll take for fourth depends on how good you think Harvard is. If Harvard is good enough to, like last year (or 2010), be a third team nabbing double-digit Ivy wins and the bottom of the league isn't awful, there are going to be a lot of teams sitting in that 4-6 win bin, meaning that 6-8 could get it done.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 567

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
01-24-17 11:01 AM - Post#219203    
    In response to dperry

Interesting statistics as to projecting W-L record for 4th seed based on history. Based on the team forum pages, there is a considerable amount of interest regarding which team will secure the 4th seed, partially due to active boards by several of these teams over the years. Less so, regarding which team will secure the #1 seed -- simply a different dynamic than prior years prior to the introduction of the IL Tournament and format. There may be 2 to 3 teams fighting for the 4th seed towards year-end and the same may true for the 1 seed.

There is theoretically some benefit in getting the #1 seed based on 1 playing 4 as well what seed a team would receive for the NCAA tournament if they win the IL tournament. Plus, players and coaches simply do not like to lose. Coaches may employ a different strategy towards the end of the year based on where the team sits.

I am not sure what would be the dynamic if all eight teams participated in the IL tournament.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 878

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-24-17 01:48 PM - Post#219214    
    In response to bradley

Interesting perspective. Seems weird that the focus is on 4th place. Sort of like NHL hockey. Last year, the most meaningful final weekend game was Harvard beating Princeton (securing the title for Yale), not Harvard beating Penn (for 4th place at 6-8). Would be reversed this year.

Without a tournament, the HYP competition would have been fierce this year. Not as much now. Ticket sales for Harvard at Princeton the final weekend look to be weak. Somewhat understandable considering the possibility that they could face each other again the following weekend at the Palestra.

If all 8 teams participated in the tournament, there would be no real competition as no one would be facing elimination.





 
Okoro Dude 
Junior
Posts: 270

Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
01-24-17 03:17 PM - Post#219230    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Attendance at Princeton basketball games is low because overall interest in Princeton basketball is low (at least compared to the past when they consistently drew bigger crowds) - not because there is a tournament.

The fact that people are talking/speculating about probabilities of finishing in the top four (instead of conceding their season after losing a few games early Ivy games) is evidence that the tournament is generating more interest in the regular season league-wide.

Maybe it's me, but Yale clinching a title through Princeton losing to a non-contending team hundreds of miles away doesn't seem more exciting than a head-to-head matchup between the last two contenders in a tournament title game - winner take all.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 878

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-24-17 04:18 PM - Post#219237    
    In response to Okoro Dude

I was on the Lavietes floor two years ago with players, media and a few fans, watching Yale lose in the final seconds of the season at Dartmouth. That was exciting!

 
Okoro Dude 
Junior
Posts: 270

Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
01-25-17 01:10 PM - Post#219304    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I was in the Palestra later in the week with 7,000 people watching Harvard and Yale play a winner-take-all game. That was more exciting.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4902

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-25-17 03:20 PM - Post#219326    
    In response to Okoro Dude

Completely agree. I started covering the league at the end of the Penn-Princeton duopoly, so pardon the lack of historical perspective in this take, but I was there in 2011 when Harvard clinched a share for the first time versus Penn and Princeton and the atmosphere at Lavietes was electric. But the playoff a week later was a completely different level.

2013 was just weird, standing around as Princeton got swept on the I-95 roadie.

That 2015 environment at The Palestra was insane as well.

I've been to some good live Ivy games, but none can compare to the 2011 and 2015 playoffs.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4256

Reg: 11-22-04
01-25-17 09:04 PM - Post#219441    
    In response to mrjames

Mike -- any chance you can update the odds after this past weekend's games?

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4902

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-26-17 09:09 AM - Post#219489    
    In response to SomeGuy

Apologies - this is straight out of R so it's not terribly clean, but the data is here...

Four-team pairings:
teams counts
1 ,,,,harvard,princeton,pen n,yale 0.322
9 ,columbia,,,harvard,princ eton,,yale 0.238
17 brown,,,,harvard,princeto n,,yale 0.204
5 ,,cornell,,harvard,prince ton,,yale 0.138
7 ,columbia,,,,princeton,pe nn,yale 0.021
15 brown,,,,,princeton,penn, yale 0.015
22 brown,columbia,,,,princet on,,yale 0.012
4 ,,cornell,,,princeton,pen n,yale 0.009
2 ,,,dartmouth,harvard,prin ceton,,yale 0.008
12 ,columbia,cornell,,,princ eton,,yale 0.007
19 brown,,cornell,,,princeto n,,yale 0.007
10 ,columbia,,,harvard,princ eton,penn, 0.004
3 ,,,dartmouth,harvard,prin ceton,penn, 0.002
25 brown,columbia,,,harvard, princeton,, 0.002
6 ,,cornell,,harvard,prince ton,penn, 0.001
8 ,columbia,,,harvard,,penn ,yale 0.001
11 ,columbia,,dartmouth,harv ard,princeton,, 0.001
13 ,columbia,cornell,,harvar d,,,yale 0.001
14 ,columbia,cornell,,harvar d,princeton,, 0.001
16 brown,,,,harvard,,penn,ya le 0.001
18 brown,,,,harvard,princeto n,penn, 0.001
20 brown,,cornell,,harvard,, ,yale 0.001
21 brown,,cornell,,harvard,p rinceton,, 0.001
23 brown,columbia,,,,princet on,penn, 0.001
24 brown,columbia,,,harvard, ,,yale 0.001


Summary table:
share solo avgwins Upper95 Lower95 first second third fourth teams
1 0.004 0.000 5.592 8.51 2.67 0.001 0.011 0.047 0.187 brown
2 0.006 0.002 5.841 8.85 2.83 0.003 0.014 0.058 0.215 columbia
3 0.001 0.000 5.153 8.06 2.25 0.000 0.007 0.032 0.127 cornell
4 0.000 0.000 2.988 5.70 0.28 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.010 dartmouth
5 0.209 0.106 9.173 12.24 6.10 0.165 0.228 0.416 0.119 harvard
6 0.004 0.001 6.179 9.08 3.27 0.002 0.012 0.066 0.298 penn
7 0.641 0.436 10.878 13.61 8.15 0.522 0.315 0.140 0.018 princeton
8 0.403 0.223 10.196 12.87 7.52 0.307 0.413 0.240 0.026 yale

Ivy Tourney table:
teams tourneyodds playoffOLD semiL finalL bid
1 brown 0.246 0.232 0.198 0.038 0.010
2 columbia 0.290 0.232 0.212 0.059 0.019
3 cornell 0.166 0.232 0.137 0.024 0.005
4 dartmouth 0.011 0.232 0.010 0.001 0.000
5 harvard 0.928 0.232 0.516 0.243 0.169
6 penn 0.378 0.232 0.199 0.097 0.082
7 princeton 0.995 0.232 0.347 0.260 0.388
8 yale 0.986 0.232 0.381 0.278 0.327

Ws for fourth:
5 6 7 8 9 10
0.012 0.174 0.449 0.318 0.046 0.001

Ws for fifth:
4 5 6 7 8
0.006 0.178 0.523 0.268 0.025

Odds of tie for fourth by number of wins for fourth:
9 - 0%
8 - 7%
7 - 31%
6 - 74%
5 - 100%

 
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