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Username Post: Ivy Title/Tourney Odds        (Topic#19752)
JadwinGeorge 
Sophomore
Posts: 189

Age: 69
Reg: 12-04-15
01-26-17 10:38 AM - Post#219495    
    In response to mrjames

I have attended probably a half dozen Ivy playoff games going back to Princeton-Columbia at St. John's in the late 1960's. McMillian vs. Petrie. McMillian won. The atmosphere at all of them was unbelievably intense, none more than Harvard-Yale at The Palestra. I am looking forward to full houses for two days and a lot of fun. As one of the last holdouts for The 14 Game Tournament I confess I can't wait for March 11.

 
Go Green 
Junior
Posts: 259

Age: 46
Reg: 04-22-10
01-26-17 01:47 PM - Post#219521    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

  • JadwinGeorge Said:
. The atmosphere at all of them was unbelievably intense.



That's usually the case for tournament finals in conferences that historically have sent only one team to the NCAA.

I think we're in for a treat, too.

 
Tiger69 
PhD Student
Posts: 1984

Reg: 11-23-04
01-26-17 02:56 PM - Post#219531    
    In response to Go Green

The best argument for the Tournament is that it gives MRJ more opportunities to crank the numbers for us.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4127

Reg: 11-22-04
01-30-17 06:34 PM - Post#219937    
    In response to mrjames

If I had to guess, Columbia surpasses Penn this week for 4th, and Brown and Harvard drop the most.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1476

Reg: 10-09-09
01-30-17 06:53 PM - Post#219944    
    In response to SomeGuy

https://twitter.com/YaleSportsGroup/statu s/8257913...

Yale Sports Analytics now posts the probabilities as Columbia 61.1%, Penn 31.8%, and Brown, 12.3%, meaning that Columbia is just about twice as likely as Penn to make the tournament.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 806

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Ivy Title/Tourney Odds
01-30-17 06:57 PM - Post#219945    
    In response to cc66

Interesting that Brown is at 12% and trails Penn (31%). Brown has played the toughest schedule (Yale 2x, Princeton, Penn), 3 of 4 games on the road, and beat Penn at Penn.



Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-30-17 06:58 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4127

Reg: 11-22-04
01-30-17 08:06 PM - Post#219959    
    In response to cc66

The amount of the jump for Columbia surprises me, though the model may be different from Mike's, so maybe they had a higher chance than 27% in this model entering the weekend. I would have thought that the most likely scenario was that Columbia would split and be 2-2, and that would keep them around 27. The extra win is big, but the jump seems bigger.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4601

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-30-17 08:09 PM - Post#219960    
    In response to SomeGuy

Posted mine at @ivybball on Sunday morning. Sorry I didn't repost here - you can find them there though.

I am, indeed, less bullish than Yale Sports Analytics. Don't know their methodology, though I'm sure it's posted somewhere. Mine are just KP's numbers simulated out over the season.

 
Bryan 
Sophomore
Posts: 105

Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-08-17 03:30 PM - Post#221013    
    In response to mrjames

This is a follow-up to the data provided in the thread by David and uses the same 62 seasons he included. 62 years *8 teams = 496 data points.

Wins by Team,# ,#Top4 finishes, % Top 4 finishes
>8 171,171, 100%
8 30,27, 90%
7 61,38, 62%
6 55,11, 20%
5 50,1, 2%
<5 129,0, 0%
All 496,248, 50%

There were 19 times in the 62 seasons the 4th and 5th place teams had the same number of wins and 6 times that the 6th place team had the same number of wins as the 4th place team.

Bryan


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4601

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-08-17 08:46 PM - Post#221049    
    In response to Bryan

Columbia could basically seal up a spot by beating Princeton. Would be pretty much guaranteed the tiebreaker over Brown, making that a really, really tough hill for the Bears to climb...

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3256

Reg: 11-23-04
02-08-17 08:54 PM - Post#221052    
    In response to mrjames

MJ, have you visited Providence? Brown sits atop a relatively steep (College) hill.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4601

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-08-17 10:33 PM - Post#221077    
    In response to Old Bear

Covered and attended a few games, and I've done that walk from the train station all the way up the hill. No bueno.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3256

Reg: 11-23-04
02-09-17 12:29 PM - Post#221113    
    In response to mrjames

If the courts are open, you can go into the Superior Court Building and take the elevator up to the fifth floor, and get out on Benefit Street.

 
clio 
Freshman
Posts: 7

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Home Floor Advantage
02-19-17 07:06 PM - Post#222586    
    In response to mrjames

After a 0-6 start, Kudos to the Penn Quackers for theIr recent recovery that has them in great position to win the tournament number four seed.

Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS.

 
Go Green 
Junior
Posts: 259

Age: 46
Reg: 04-22-10
Re: Home Floor Advantage
02-19-17 10:14 PM - Post#222602    
    In response to clio

  • clio Said:


Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS.



Yeah, damn those Ivy folks for not foreseeing that Penn might be the #4 seed.

Malpractice, I tell you. Malpractice!!!

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 130

Age: 36
Reg: 01-08-11
Re: Home Floor Advantage
02-19-17 10:21 PM - Post#222605    
    In response to clio

"Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS."

What a whiner. I agree it's nuts, but It's Princeton's own fault for agreeing to a tournament at the Palestra. Penn would never have okayed a tournament at Jadwin.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 9178

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: Home Floor Advantage
02-19-17 11:01 PM - Post#222616    
    In response to westphillywarrior

  • westphillywarrior Said:
"Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS."

What a whiner. I agree it's nuts, but It's Princeton's own fault for agreeing to a tournament at the Palestra. Penn would never have okayed a tournament at Jadwin.



So there were no objections before the season to Penn hosting the tournament, as long as it did not finish fourth?

Got it.


 
Tiger69 
PhD Student
Posts: 1984

Reg: 11-23-04
Re: Home Floor Advantage
02-19-17 11:11 PM - Post#222618    
    In response to westphillywarrior

You're right. We shouldn't have agreed to the whole nutty idea of the tournament in the first place! Especially in greasy Philly.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 472

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: Home Floor Advantage
02-20-17 09:20 AM - Post#222632    
    In response to westphillywarrior

I agree that no Ivy League school, AD, or Coach should ever criticize selecting the Palestra based on their voting for the Palestra andI do not believe that they have criticized the selection up to this point and time. A fan, who obviously had no vote has every right to criticize the site selection.

The Committee's decision makes sense if the primary focus of the IL Tournament is exposure/money --- big city, historic building --- good story line for ESPN. If the purpose was to send the team with an equal opportunity to win the tournament, the Palestra would certainly not have been selected -- neutral site. If the IL wanted the team that had a greater chance to represent the league competitively, there would have been no tournament or at the very least, the format would have been very different.

At the end of the day, let's see if the Tournament enhances the reputation of the league. It should achieve the goal of money/exposure. The League will live with the consequences and the fans can make up their own mind as to how they feel about the Tournament.

 
Go Green 
Junior
Posts: 259

Age: 46
Reg: 04-22-10
Re: Home Floor Advantage
02-20-17 09:58 AM - Post#222635    
    In response to bradley

  • bradley Said:
At the end of the day, let's see if the Tournament enhances the reputation of the league. It should achieve the goal of money/exposure. The League will live with the consequences and the fans can make up their own mind as to how they feel about the Tournament.



It may or may not enhance the league rep.

But it's certainly accomplished the goal of keeping the fans whose teams are not in first place engaged in the season.


 
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