JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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01-26-17 10:38 AM - Post#219495
In response to mrjames
I have attended probably a half dozen Ivy playoff games going back to Princeton-Columbia at St. John's in the late 1960's. McMillian vs. Petrie. McMillian won. The atmosphere at all of them was unbelievably intense, none more than Harvard-Yale at The Palestra. I am looking forward to full houses for two days and a lot of fun. As one of the last holdouts for The 14 Game Tournament I confess I can't wait for March 11.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1124
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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01-26-17 01:47 PM - Post#219521
In response to JadwinGeorge
. The atmosphere at all of them was unbelievably intense.
That's usually the case for tournament finals in conferences that historically have sent only one team to the NCAA.
I think we're in for a treat, too.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-26-17 02:56 PM - Post#219531
In response to Go Green
The best argument for the Tournament is that it gives MRJ more opportunities to crank the numbers for us.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-30-17 06:34 PM - Post#219937
In response to mrjames
If I had to guess, Columbia surpasses Penn this week for 4th, and Brown and Harvard drop the most.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2201
Reg: 10-09-09
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01-30-17 06:53 PM - Post#219944
In response to SomeGuy
https://twitter.com/YaleSportsGroup/statu s/8257913...
Yale Sports Analytics now posts the probabilities as Columbia 61.1%, Penn 31.8%, and Brown, 12.3%, meaning that Columbia is just about twice as likely as Penn to make the tournament.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2685
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Ivy Title/Tourney Odds 01-30-17 06:57 PM - Post#219945
In response to cc66
Interesting that Brown is at 12% and trails Penn (31%). Brown has played the toughest schedule (Yale 2x, Princeton, Penn), 3 of 4 games on the road, and beat Penn at Penn.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-30-17 06:58 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-30-17 08:06 PM - Post#219959
In response to cc66
The amount of the jump for Columbia surprises me, though the model may be different from Mike's, so maybe they had a higher chance than 27% in this model entering the weekend. I would have thought that the most likely scenario was that Columbia would split and be 2-2, and that would keep them around 27. The extra win is big, but the jump seems bigger.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-30-17 08:09 PM - Post#219960
In response to SomeGuy
Posted mine at @ivybball on Sunday morning. Sorry I didn't repost here - you can find them there though.
I am, indeed, less bullish than Yale Sports Analytics. Don't know their methodology, though I'm sure it's posted somewhere. Mine are just KP's numbers simulated out over the season.
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Bryan
Junior
Posts: 231
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-17 03:30 PM - Post#221013
In response to mrjames
This is a follow-up to the data provided in the thread by David and uses the same 62 seasons he included. 62 years *8 teams = 496 data points.
Wins by Team,# ,#Top4 finishes, % Top 4 finishes
>8 171,171, 100%
8 30,27, 90%
7 61,38, 62%
6 55,11, 20%
5 50,1, 2%
<5 129,0, 0%
All 496,248, 50%
There were 19 times in the 62 seasons the 4th and 5th place teams had the same number of wins and 6 times that the 6th place team had the same number of wins as the 4th place team.
Bryan
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-17 08:46 PM - Post#221049
In response to Bryan
Columbia could basically seal up a spot by beating Princeton. Would be pretty much guaranteed the tiebreaker over Brown, making that a really, really tough hill for the Bears to climb...
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3988
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-08-17 08:54 PM - Post#221052
In response to mrjames
MJ, have you visited Providence? Brown sits atop a relatively steep (College) hill.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-08-17 10:33 PM - Post#221077
In response to Old Bear
Covered and attended a few games, and I've done that walk from the train station all the way up the hill. No bueno.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3988
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-09-17 12:29 PM - Post#221113
In response to mrjames
If the courts are open, you can go into the Superior Court Building and take the elevator up to the fifth floor, and get out on Benefit Street.
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clio
Freshman
Posts: 7
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Home Floor Advantage 02-19-17 07:06 PM - Post#222586
In response to mrjames
After a 0-6 start, Kudos to the Penn Quackers for theIr recent recovery that has them in great position to win the tournament number four seed.
Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1124
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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Re: Home Floor Advantage 02-19-17 10:14 PM - Post#222602
In response to clio
Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS.
Yeah, damn those Ivy folks for not foreseeing that Penn might be the #4 seed.
Malpractice, I tell you. Malpractice!!!
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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Re: Home Floor Advantage 02-19-17 10:21 PM - Post#222605
In response to clio
"Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS."
What a whiner. I agree it's nuts, but It's Princeton's own fault for agreeing to a tournament at the Palestra. Penn would never have okayed a tournament at Jadwin.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21081
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Home Floor Advantage 02-19-17 11:01 PM - Post#222616
In response to westphillywarrior
"Boos to the Ivy League committee that created a Tournament that would give the last seeded team the home floor advantage. LUDICROUS."
What a whiner. I agree it's nuts, but It's Princeton's own fault for agreeing to a tournament at the Palestra. Penn would never have okayed a tournament at Jadwin.
So there were no objections before the season to Penn hosting the tournament, as long as it did not finish fourth?
Got it.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2801
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Home Floor Advantage 02-19-17 11:11 PM - Post#222618
In response to westphillywarrior
You're right. We shouldn't have agreed to the whole nutty idea of the tournament in the first place! Especially in greasy Philly.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Home Floor Advantage 02-20-17 09:20 AM - Post#222632
In response to westphillywarrior
I agree that no Ivy League school, AD, or Coach should ever criticize selecting the Palestra based on their voting for the Palestra andI do not believe that they have criticized the selection up to this point and time. A fan, who obviously had no vote has every right to criticize the site selection.
The Committee's decision makes sense if the primary focus of the IL Tournament is exposure/money --- big city, historic building --- good story line for ESPN. If the purpose was to send the team with an equal opportunity to win the tournament, the Palestra would certainly not have been selected -- neutral site. If the IL wanted the team that had a greater chance to represent the league competitively, there would have been no tournament or at the very least, the format would have been very different.
At the end of the day, let's see if the Tournament enhances the reputation of the league. It should achieve the goal of money/exposure. The League will live with the consequences and the fans can make up their own mind as to how they feel about the Tournament.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1124
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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Re: Home Floor Advantage 02-20-17 09:58 AM - Post#222635
In response to bradley
At the end of the day, let's see if the Tournament enhances the reputation of the league. It should achieve the goal of money/exposure. The League will live with the consequences and the fans can make up their own mind as to how they feel about the Tournament.
It may or may not enhance the league rep.
But it's certainly accomplished the goal of keeping the fans whose teams are not in first place engaged in the season.
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