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Username Post: Gentlemen's C's        (Topic#19825)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 872

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-01-17 07:05 PM - Post#220095    
    In response to SRP

Mike, I owe you sort of an apology. Maybe we're both correct.

Last year at Lavietes Harvard jumped out to a 31-9 lead over Penn. Harvard hit 5-9 on three's in that spurt, but also got DNH in early foul trouble, disrupting Penn's offense. Penn started Rothschild and Howard with DNH, trying to present a larger lineup. Resulted in Penn shooting 1-8 in first half on three's. Zena had 10rbs but only 6 pts in that half because he was doubled. Instead of forcing shots, Zena had 6 assists, likely due to those three's you worship.

On the other hand, DNH fouled out after playing only 22 minutes. Do that to Brodeur and this game is over.



 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4898

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-17 08:16 PM - Post#220097    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Well, there are probably more folks on your side of the argument than mine. We're seeing teams slowly move my way, though it's not as fast as I'd like!!!

That's always the fun part of the 3s argument. The bulk of teams at the D1 level make threes at about the same rate. It's that for most teams, 1.5X the 3FG% is better than the 2FG%. And trying to set up a three can risk fewer turnovers than trying for a 2. And that 3PT jumpers tend to be easier to OREB than 2PT Js (for Harvard, OREB rates on layups and 3Pters are equal at 29.6%, but 2PtJ OREB rates are around 25).

The problem is that 3s are higher variance, so while I can guarantee you'd win a, say, 400 minute game taking all threes, strange things can happen over just 40 minutes..

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3249

Reg: 02-04-06
02-02-17 02:09 PM - Post#220149    
    In response to mrjames

Presumably the analytics say you should take fewer threes when you have a big lead and more when you're behind, precisely because of the higher variance. (On the other hand, that "dagger" three that takes a lead from two to three possessions can be awfully tempting.)

 
iabhoops88 
Sophomore
Posts: 100

Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 01-26-13
02-03-17 01:28 PM - Post#220262    
    In response to mrjames

Does the % of possessions with 3PAs impact offensive efficiency rate on the margin? If a team shoots 3s on 25-30% of possessions, ORAT might be high, but if they shoot 3s on every possession, ORAT declines as opponents plan and play defense differently. Is there an range where the team optimizes ORAT?

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4898

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-03-17 03:18 PM - Post#220273    
    In response to iabhoops88

It's all tradeoffs. At a certain point, as a defense sells out on the three, it's going to raise the points per poss of going to the rim, either in terms of ability to convert or ability to go to the FT line. My presumption is that tradeoff doesn't happen until a very, very high 3PA rate, but it will be different by team depending on your ability to drive.

 
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