cc66
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Reg: 10-09-09
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01-27-17 01:17 PM - Post#219627
Of all the remaining 12 games, tonight's is supposed to be the easiest victory--Columbia by 10, according to KenPom.
It's tomorrow that's rather dicey. The projection is Harvard by 3, and while the 42% chance of a Columbia victory may be statistically correct, it seems at least intuitively high. Even away, Harvard's fabled first year class should just not be losing to the likes of Columbia. Nevertheless, a victory against one of the top three teams in the league would at least partly offset last weekend's inexplicable disaster and once again clear a tenuous path to 4th place.
The question is whether we are, in fact, such a high variance team.
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Chet Forte
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01-27-17 01:38 PM - Post#219633
In response to cc66
It all depends on which Columbia team shows up. Petrasek has to come up big on both nights.
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internetter
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Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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dartmouth 01-27-17 10:08 PM - Post#219680
In response to Chet Forte
C 66-54; Coby, Pet only double-figure scorers. Good, active D, BG had many TOs.
Lions shot 36%, 33% threes
Edited by internetter on 01-27-17 10:11 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Columbia 37P6
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01-27-17 10:58 PM - Post#219684
In response to internetter
Columbia's frontcourt players dominated on both offense and defense. Dartmouth had no answer for the Lions' size and strength under the boards. Coby, Meisner and Voss played aggressively.
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Chet Forte
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01-27-17 11:04 PM - Post#219685
In response to Columbia 37P6
Our defense was very good. Meisner was excellent on the boards. But our offense was pretty spotty. Hickman basically disappeared. We also missed a lot of bunnies. We will need to play another good defensive gam and pick up our shooting to beat Harvard, which is very doable if we play to our potential.
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cc66
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Reg: 10-09-09
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01-27-17 11:15 PM - Post#219689
In response to Chet Forte
With the exceptions noted above, we played badly enough so that even with a 12 rather than a projected 10 pt. victory, we nevertheless dropped 3 notches in KP. Our DRAT was an admirable .78, but our ORAT was just .96. Hickman has disappeared, and we went for long stretches when nothing--even in close-was dropping.
Also, Engels' substitution are increasingly mysterious. Coby starts, scores, and is pulled in 28 seconds? Players are often inserted and pulled in a minute or less, and no combination stays together enough to get into a rhythm. The only two possible explanations I can think of for this are 1) he was trying to save everyone's legs for tomorrow night; and 2) he has to divide the time among a number of improving, but not outstanding players. Even acknowledging these possibilities, the whole strategy seems quite random.
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Columbia 37P6
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01-27-17 11:38 PM - Post#219693
In response to cc66
Other positives of Engles' strategy: (1) Everyone in the deep rotation gets on the floor in the first 3-5 minutes thereby avoiding their sitting and becoming nervous; (2) No Lion player ever fouls out of a game; (3) Our opponents become confused from the substitution frenzy. Bottom line is Engles likes to make multiple substitutions. Remember that he was Joe Jones' assistant and Joe also made multiple substitutions including benching players with the "hot hand." If Engles wins, we will consider him a genius. A victory over Harvard tomorow night will give the Lions a 3-1 record in the Ivy League. Columba certainly has the players to knock off Harvard
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Columbia 37P6
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01-27-17 11:42 PM - Post#219694
In response to Columbia 37P6
Is it possible that Jeff needed a rest? (Just kidding).
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Chet Forte
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01-27-17 11:48 PM - Post#219696
In response to Columbia 37P6
I thought that the substitutions were all situational. PS, I was disappointed by the mediocre turnout, especially since Al Bagnoli was sitting courtside with what appeared to be a few football recruits.
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cc66
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01-27-17 11:59 PM - Post#219700
In response to Chet Forte
The turnout was pretty mediocre. But since it was both Dartmouth and Dartmouth this weekend, most fans probably figured that if they were going to go to just one game, it would be Harvard tomorrow night. That's when I would expect close to a capacity crowd. which is hopefully not merely Harvard alums coming to see all their prized recruits.
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Chet Forte
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01-28-17 12:17 AM - Post#219701
In response to cc66
Mike Smith is going to be out to prove that he can outplay the Harvard freshman PG. Petrasek clearly outplayed fellow POY candidate Boudreaux this evening. But we are going to need Hickman to bounce back from his last few off nights to take down Harvard. Meisner, Coby, Voss, and Tape will have to establish control of the front court as well. I am starting to see what the coaches like about Adlesh and Killlingsworth: both are smart, heady players.
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Columbia 37P6
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01-28-17 10:01 AM - Post#219705
In response to Chet Forte
Cornell was ahead of Harvard until near the end of the game. Harvard had trouble guarding Morgan, Hatter and Smith specially on back door cuts and the like. Columbia needs to duplicate its offensive and defensive effort against Dartmouth last night where the Lion frontcourt played very aggressively under the basket. Columbia has a very good chance to defeat Harvard if our bigs stay near the basket and control the boards. If Harvard double teams underneath, Smith and Hickman will have open room on the outside to shot the ball.
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cc66
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Reg: 10-09-09
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01-28-17 11:18 AM - Post#219707
In response to Columbia 37P6
http://www.nycbuckets.com/2017/01/columbias-def ens...
From comments on Voss to Killingsworth, there is some useful info here....
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