TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
|
02-07-17 03:32 PM - Post#220812
In response to Jeff2sf
I know this is your shtick Jeff. And I'm OK with it. Variety is the spice of life.
But the least you can do is acknowledge that Max is 6th on the team at WS/40.
Now I'm not excited about Max playing max minutes but options are limited and I wouldn't mind trying something different so we don't have to watch one of the Matts have to guard some guy in the paint that is half a foot taller than either of them is. I also wouldn't mind an offense where Brodeur can roam the top of the key every so often or not receive the obligatory double team under the basket. Brodeur seems to have a nice outside shot so let's find out now how good it is.
I admit I passed into acceptance phase 2-3 years ago so I no longer get worked up over any of this like I used to.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
02-07-17 03:47 PM - Post#220814
In response to Okoro Dude
????
I am not sure I see the evidence that Max is a great passer or that he can beat anyone one on one. Stats would suggest the opposite.
I think he leads the team in 2pt FG% and is 3rd behind Foreman and Goodman in Assist rate?
Last year he scored 18 with Cedric from Brown on him, 18 with Boudreax on him and 14/11 v Harvard. Those are the only games he has ever played 20+ minutes I believe. This year he has scored consistently in 7-12 minutes in about every game against every big.
He may not be the answer but he has shown more than a majority of the other options on the roster.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
02-07-17 03:48 PM - Post#220815
In response to TheLine
I know this is your shtick Jeff. And I'm OK with it. Variety is the spice of life.
But the least you can do is acknowledge that Max is 6th on the team at WS/40.
Now I'm not excited about Max playing max minutes but options are limited and I wouldn't mind trying something different so we don't have to watch one of the Matts have to guard some guy in the paint that is half a foot taller than either of them is. I also wouldn't mind an offense where Brodeur can roam the top of the key every so often or not receive the obligatory double team under the basket. Brodeur seems to have a nice outside shot so let's find out now how good it is.
I admit I passed into acceptance phase 2-3 years ago so I no longer get worked up over any of this like I used to.
I agree. Max may not be a 30 minute guy but to the extent he can play the 5 and AJ can roam more, its a good change up. we need to try something....
|
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-07-17 04:02 PM - Post#220816
In response to TheLine
hey i'm not worked up either man. But 31% TOV rate. Basketball from the stone ages. No thanks.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
02-07-17 04:22 PM - Post#220817
In response to Jeff2sf
Max's Ivy ORat is 98 and AJ's is 75.8 (AJ's overall ORat is 111). AJ's numbers from Ivy to Non Conference are eye popping.
|
Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
|
02-07-17 04:23 PM - Post#220818
In response to Okoro Dude
The part I still don't get is how reasonably good we were in the non-league season. We clearly are better than some of the really weak teams we have had in the past when I watched us get absolutely pasted in non-league games. I don't know how to reconcile the team that went 7-6 against a decent non-league schedule with a team that goes 0-5 in the Ivies. Yet, I don't think you can fully discount either data point.
This may be the most important question of the season...What in the world has happened? Can it purely be thanks to the extra scouting Ivy teams do and if so, doesn't that fall on the coach to have an answer? I know we'll have more talent next year, but I now have major concerns that the coaching won't be enough to get us to where we want to go. There is just no excuse for being 0-5 right now...none.
|
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-07-17 04:32 PM - Post#220821
In response to PennFan10
I have AJ (by me, I mean Sports Ref) at 104 overall. Where are you getting your numbers.
And yeah, he's clearly been down in the ivies, but I felt the 13 games were more indicative than the 5, especially since he had a 34 point non-conf game in the midst of the ivy struggles.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
02-07-17 04:39 PM - Post#220823
In response to Jeff2sf
I got mine off KenPom. AJ stunk last weekend and in part it's because we don't have an answer for the double team that runs at him on every touch. I just feel like Max could be a good change up as it may allow Penn to get AJ the ball in other spots.
We are all a bit salty and in need of a win to give us better things to discuss.
|
Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
|
02-07-17 04:42 PM - Post#220824
In response to palestra38
We stink.....as much as it pains me to say it---I had 33 years of great basketball with Penn up through 2007---the last 10 have been brutal and I simply don't have the ability anymore to be hopeful when my eyes tell me there's no hope.
Dartmouth football went 19 years between titles.
Think Penn hoops will do so as well?
|
Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-07-17 04:54 PM - Post#220826
In response to PennFan10
you pay for KenPom?
You're a bigger fan than me.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
02-07-17 04:59 PM - Post#220827
In response to Jeff2sf
you pay for KenPom?
You're a bigger fan than me.
P38 paid for mine
|
penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
|
02-07-17 05:30 PM - Post#220832
In response to Quakers03
The part I still don't get is how reasonably good we were in the non-league season....I don't know how to reconcile the team that went 7-6 against a decent non-league schedule with a team that goes 0-5 in the Ivies. Yet, I don't think you can fully discount either data point.
This may be the most important question of the season...What in the world has happened?
The simplest answer, I think, is that AJ was played straight up OOC and he had some games where he just went ballistic.
|
GoBigGreenBasketball
Masters Student
Posts: 806
Age: 52
Reg: 05-19-16
|
02-07-17 05:55 PM - Post#220837
In response to penn nation
He's a freshman and needs time to learn how to play out of the double team. Actually, he could learn a ton watching Boudreaux, who's been constantly doubled teamed all season.
| "...no excuses - only results!†|
|
TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
|
Penn v Dartmouth
02-07-17 05:59 PM - Post#220838
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
I learned enough watching Boudreaux on Saturday.
I feel bad for AJ. This weekend must have been miserable - with Howard missing he was seeing impossible double and sometimes triple teams.
Edited by TheLine on 02-07-17 05:59 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-08-17 09:21 AM - Post#220958
In response to GoBigGreenBasketball
That's the thing. We don't want him to go away when he gets double teamed. There will be times when he still has the advantage and needs to be selfish through the double team. Right now, he looks like a baseball hitter who is in a slump and keeps taking the fastball strike on the corner and swinging at the slider away.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-08-17 09:26 AM - Post#220959
In response to palestra38
While I agree with PennFan10 that Penn is better than Brown this year, there is a flaw in the "Penn wins by 10 at Brown" analysis. That result may well be the equivalent of what they did to us at the Palestra, but the fact that the Palestra game went the way it did doesn't make it any more likely that we beat them going away at Brown. That would be like saying that you know your odds on a coin flip are 50/50, so if the first flip comes up heads, you now know that the next flip will be tails.
And speaking of coin flips, the numbers say that's more or less what we'll be getting at Brown. A 50/50 game. And that's the bigger problem with being 0-6. The fact that we've lost 2 games that we were expected to win doesn't change our odds over the next 8.
|
SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
|
02-08-17 09:29 AM - Post#220961
In response to TheLine
Max may show the limitations of both WS and ORAT. I think his WS score is kind of inflated and somehow fails to take the egregious turnover rate into adequate account. However, the ORAT may underplay the numerous ways he contributes behond simple efficiency.
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
02-08-17 10:08 AM - Post#220970
In response to SomeGuy
His TO rate doesn't appear to be as bad as it seems. He has had limited minutes (although he played 22 productive minutes last night) and several of the turnovers are questionable. I noted previously that he dove for a loose ball at Princeton and it went out off of him so he was given a TO. Foreman also threw a pass to no one and Max was closest so he was given a TO. If he was playing 20+ a night I would be concerned but these one offs skew the data in a way that doesn't worry me.
I also think he showed again last night that he is a very good passing big, especially out of the double team. AJ needs to learn this.
Reality is when AJ and Howard combine for 10 pts and under 10 rebounds, we are going to lose
|
PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
|
02-08-17 10:09 AM - Post#220971
In response to PennFan10
After last night I have revised my prediction for next week @Providence.
Penn will win by 6. I have no analysis to support this and the data (and P38) says I will be wrong. I still believe it.
|
palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
|
02-08-17 02:48 PM - Post#221003
In response to SomeGuy
That assumes, of course, that the metrics you base your 50-50 odds statement were correct at the time of the first game or now. I would contend that they do not accurately gauge the current strength of these teams
|
