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Username Post: Penn Game #1        (Topic#19873)
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
02-04-17 05:14 PM - Post#220420    

Dartmouth Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 4, 2017
• After losing to Princeton 69-64 yesterday, Dartmouth is now projected to finish the regular season 6-21 (3-11 Ivy).
• We currently rank Dartmouth as the #294 team in the country, and the #8 team in the Ivy.
• Next game: Sat, Feb 4 vs. #171 U Penn. Our power ratings give the Big Green a 37% chance to win.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
hoops123 
Freshman
Posts: 74

Age: 47
Reg: 12-14-16
02-04-17 11:50 PM - Post#220544    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Further to my post why Mike Fleming is not a fit for point guard:
Played 31 Mins against Penn
0-3 FG's
0-1 Three pointers
3 defensive rebounds
3 player fouls
ZERO TOTAL POINTS
4 assists
1 turnover.

Brendan Barry played 16 mins tonight:
1-1 FG's
1-1 Three pointers
O free throws
2 rebounds
3 TOTAL POINTS in half the minutes of Fleming
0 assists
0 turnovers.

I'll take Barry any day over Fleming. Flemings fouls were holding fouls again, not charges of driving fouls. Just cant keep up with his guy so he holds them/their jersey and gets called for the fouls. WHY? Mcglaughlin, why is he kept out there as a consistent threat to causing us to lose games?? In my opinion, he shouldn't play another minute. He didn't help us win tonight! He was a terrible no show....

 
hoopla 
Masters Student
Posts: 484

Age: 43
Reg: 08-28-12
02-05-17 11:11 AM - Post#220582    
    In response to hoops123

Congrats to us for keeping the season alive with a win vs Penn!

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
02-05-17 11:44 AM - Post#220587    
    In response to hoopla

I wonder what the updated odds are for Dartmouth [mrjames]?
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Cooper 
Sophomore
Posts: 126

Reg: 11-22-04
02-06-17 11:34 AM - Post#220658    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

A win is a win. To be sure, that's not a very good Penn team (which might be a generous statement) and Dartmouth once again struggled down the stretch, but thanks to some timely three-point shooting the Big Green is in the Ivy League win column.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4164

Reg: 11-22-04
02-07-17 09:29 AM - Post#220762    
    In response to hoops123

Not sure how you come to that conclusion. When I look at those lines, it seems like Fleming looks like the better choice for point guard. The assists are important -- even without scoring himself, Fleming was responsible for more points (both total and per minute on the floor). And he did it without turning the ball over.

I also note that Penn's worst defender (who is a good shooter) seemed to be specifically brought into the game when Dartmouth put Barry in, and he defended Barry when they were in man.

 
SomeDartmouthStudent 
Freshman
Posts: 49

Reg: 11-30-16
02-07-17 12:03 PM - Post#220781    
    In response to SomeGuy

I cant imagine you've actually watched any games if you think Flemming should start.

Back to my favorite PER statistic. Barry is 22nd in the league with a 16.54 (!)and Flemming is #62 out of 66 with a 7.49. It can actually be argued that he is one of the worst players in the whole league.

 
hoops123 
Freshman
Posts: 74

Age: 47
Reg: 12-14-16
02-07-17 12:36 PM - Post#220792    
    In response to SomeGuy

As someone who has watched Fleming since his freshman year (played in 18 games, not much to write about except his former career high of 9 points against D2 Lyndon State.....), not on team sophomore year (that's another long story), played some his junior year (played 12.2 mins per game, averaged 1.9PPG, 14 assts in 22 games with 19 t/o's), then starting this year. I can tell you that his defense is poor (he gets beaten off the dribble by average PG's. When they're good PG's, our bigs are always playing clean up on dribble penetrations. His fouls are almost always holding his man as they run by him. NEVER boxes his man out.), his decision making is fair, and he is a only a fair shooter(3.6 ppg overall, 3.2 ppg in conference). He is a good FT shooter. He does have a low turnover rate. All things considered, Fleming is a higher risk play than Barry across the board in my opinion. Barry plays better defense (subjective. again, my opinion), he has the second highest 3pt shooting % (45.9% overall, 50% in conference)in the Ivy League (Fleming 32.4% overall and 27.3% in conference, not even in the top 50 in either category), assists per 40 are a tossup, and FT % slightly in Flemings favor, turnovers per 40 a tossup. I'll add Barry's extra 3+ points per game too.
Given that we SHOULD BE playing for our future (especially given our record), and since playing Barry over Fleming is at worst a toss up (its not,but for the sake of discussion...), at best Barry will score and contribute more and is our future point guard. I'll end with Bio/Stat comparisons from HS. If you had to pick based on these bios, who would you pick?:

From Barry's HS bio:"Set career scoring record at Rumson-Fair Haven with 1,812 points as a four-year letterwinner and two-year captain for Coach Chris Champeau ... also produced 431 assists, 306 rebounds, 277 three-pointers and 258 steals, and as a senior earned first-team all-state honors from USA Today while averaging 25.7 points, 4.3 assists and 2.1 steals per game ... 2016 Gatorade Player of the Year Nominee and McDonald’s All-America Nominee ."

Barry=STUD

From Fleming's HS Bio: "Four-time letterman and senior captain for coach Pat Ambrose at Stevenson before going on to a post-grad year at Northfield Mount Hermon for coach John Carroll ... three-time all-conference selection and two-time all-area ... earned honorable mention all-state recognition as a senior as well while averaging 16.8 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game ... helped Stevenson to a regional championship in his sophomore season ... went on to help NMH win the school’s first National Prep Championship with a 29-5 record ... averaged 5.8 points and 3.3 assists for the Hoggers and was All-NEPSAC honorable mention"

Fleming=Honorable Mention

I choose Barry. I think Mclaughlin should start Barry. He's our future.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Penn Game #1
02-07-17 02:22 PM - Post#220805    
    In response to hoops123

I to think Barry should be starting but I can live with the senior leadership intangibles Fleming brings to the table. Fleming is more vocal and I'm sure McLaughlin values that over the numbers. Barry's minutes aren't what they should be given his ascension.

Fleming is playing like it's his last rodeo, and that is a good thing for this team. That's what you want from your senior...that and production. As long as he plays within his skills I can forgive him starting over Barry. At least Barry and Sistare are getting meaningful minutes that won't leave us in such a lurch next year.

What are they going to do at the 5 spot is what I'm wondering. We haven't really played anyone outside of Ike and Wes for any meaningful minutes at that position. Maybe we have an incoming freshman???

With this win versus Penn we still have a chance, if ever so small, to make the tourney. So, I doubt we'll see any changes to the line ups starting or otherwise, now that he's got 1 win in league. So I wouldn't count on Barry getting any starts this year until we have no shot at the post season, and even then I just don't see Mclaughlin starting a freshman.

If I'm reading my tea leaves correctly here's whats going on. Mclaughlin is trying to smooth over the ruffled feathers of the seniors who didn't get love under Cormier. He needs to develop the Ivy relationships for his future players. How better to do that than create goodwill with his outgoing seniors? If what [SomeDartmouthStudent] says is true and some of the seniors seem disengaged then that's disappointing. You should play the guys who are hungry, working hard, and should have a future with the team. C'est la vie.

Good read on Harvard's approach:

Being a highly rated senior doesn't guarantee you PT.


On another note we are not on the total shame list anymore. With our win over Penn, Penn is now on the list, while Princeton has a chance to not lose a game:

Which six teams without a conference loss will run the table in their league? Which teams could go winless in league.


"...no excuses - only results!”


Edited by GoBigGreenBasketball on 02-07-17 02:28 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 409

Reg: 10-20-14
02-07-17 05:29 PM - Post#220831    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Congratulations on your first league win, not to mention Coach McLaughlin's first-ever Ivy victory.

Four home wins in a row over Penn. It seems that in each of those games, not matter the players or the coaches, Dartmouth finds a way to physically control the game and get the Quakers out of sorts.

The Big Green did a really good job on the boards and at the three point line. While you guys did not get as many free throws as I thought you would, they went 10-14.

Penn has not had much to boast about lately, but its three point defense had been pretty good before this game.

On the bright side, they did come back after Dartmouth opened up that 14 point lead in the first two minutes of the second half.

Coach Donahue has often mentioned the team's inability to compete late in games. It showed for both games this weekend. While things may be better than they were last year, and certainly better than it was during the last few years of the Jerome Allen Era, the Quakers still have a way to go.

 
Go Green 
Junior
Posts: 261

Age: 46
Reg: 04-22-10
02-07-17 05:42 PM - Post#220834    
    In response to rbg

  • rbg Said:
things may be better than they were last year, and certainly better than it was during the last few years of the Jerome Allen Era.



You follow Penn a lot more closely than I do.

But the sentiments quoted above do not appear to be widely shared from reading the Penn Board.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
02-07-17 05:50 PM - Post#220835    
    In response to rbg

PENN did show a lot of fortitude in coming back after Dartmouth's hot start to the 2nd half. Dartmouth finally found the will to finish a game. The next step for them is to get a lead and keep a lead. That is a skill that they are a ways from developing. But one step at a time.

I don't want to get to up after one league win. There's still a lot of improvement needed. Defensively we are 350 of 351 in blocks and we still turnover the rock way to much. We got guys who routinely travel when they get the ball on the block. We got guys who routinely get called for charges every game. Outside of Evan, the starting front court cannot be counted on for point production. Our guards defense is still worrisome, no one can keep their man in front of them, which is a problem when you play mostly man defense.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
hoopla 
Masters Student
Posts: 484

Age: 43
Reg: 08-28-12
Re: Penn Game #1
02-07-17 06:16 PM - Post#220841    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Coach Mac is playing players according to who he thinks will get us the win. If he is playing players for any other reason (such as to smooth over ruffled feathers) or anything else, that would be crazy town. I guarantee that is not the case--that he is desperate for wins as we all are--and that is his only concern during the games! We are in desperation mode right now, and blood pressure in coaches, ADs, and fans alike feels like it is at an all time high, especially because we are supposed to be good.

I hope it doesn't come to this, but if we get eliminated from the top 4, I think that is when we should go all young even if it's a hard force and results in a worse record.

Edited by hoopla on 02-07-17 06:20 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Re: Penn Game #1
02-08-17 01:20 AM - Post#220947    
    In response to hoopla

Ok [hoopla], I hear you but consider Cameron Smith started a significant amount of games last year. As a sophomore, his line from last year, again as a sophomore is better than Fleming's is as a senior???? I'm confident Cameron didn't regress and Fleming hasn't improved over Cameron's numbers from last year. Now consider Barry who is clearly the rising star. His numbers are almost 2X better than Fleming's. By the data it doesn't make sense. If I'm this perplexed as a long time fan, I wonder how the players feel? Cameron had more rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Barry is better across the board too. Consider that Barry as a freshman has a career game high of 14 pts. Fleming as a senior just (vs P'ton) scored a career high of 11 pts.

Fleming

C. Smith

Barry

And by the way....how can you guarantee that that is not the case????
"...no excuses - only results!”


Edited by GoBigGreenBasketball on 02-08-17 01:24 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
hoopla 
Masters Student
Posts: 484

Age: 43
Reg: 08-28-12
02-08-17 07:57 AM - Post#220955    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

I guess I can't say "I guarantee" anything. I'll rephrase. I feel 100% positive that Coach Mac is playing guys according to who he thinks will get us the win and not for any political reason or to make guys feel better or anything else. If that weren't the case, I don't think he'd have made it this far as a professional coach.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4164

Reg: 11-22-04
02-08-17 09:41 AM - Post#220964    
    In response to hoops123

No argument with the overall conclusion. Just thought that the individual game stats against Penn were actually in Fleming's favor. So it looked strange to me trotting out what looked like a better line in support of Barry.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
Penn Game #1
02-08-17 08:08 PM - Post#221047    
    In response to hoopla

Lets be honest from the Pros to the preteen leagues politics and positioning play a role. From the Knicks front office and Carmelo's contract to the Buss family fued and Kobe's farwell contract. Those aren't basketball decisions. There's daddy ball in AAU and pressure from Alumni that encouraged Steve Alford to give back his extension. There are a lot of things that go on outside of the game that impact the game.

I'm sure that there's pressures to play certain players, because it's good for recruiting. You don't want to bust a prep school pipeline or tick off a wealthy alum. Coaches have their favorites they have guys they trust over others, they have guys who will get minutes despite their travels, turnovers, lack of defense, or lack of offense. I guess the question is how honest coaches are with the players? I look at Cameron Smiths utter lack of PT and have no answers, he's not injured. He played 33 minutes in a game against Hartford last year, started, scored in double figures, and we won. He couldn't be that bad. We lost to Hartford this year! He had 1 TO in 33 mins. We played a guy who had 3 TOs in 5 mins!? IJS. We've got guys that per KenPom are nearly invisible at the forward spot outside of Evan.

Go-to guys (>28% of possessions used)
Evan Boudreaux

Significant Contributors (20-24% of possessions used)
Miles Wright
Guillien Smith
Taylor Johnson
Ian Carter

Role Players (16-20% of possessions used)
Ian Sistare
Brendan Barry

Limited roles (12-16% of possessions used)
Wesley Dickinson
Ike Ngwudo

Nearly invisible (<12% of possessions used)
Mike Fleming

Benchwarmers (played in fewer than 10% of team's minutes)
Will Emery
Cameron Smith

"...no excuses - only results!”


Edited by GoBigGreenBasketball on 02-08-17 08:23 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
hoops123 
Freshman
Posts: 74

Age: 47
Reg: 12-14-16
Re: Penn Game #1
02-08-17 09:02 PM - Post#221055    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

Agreed! I am ready to start the "Cam should play instead of Fleming" thread....He never sees the floor. And he should.

 
EasyGreen1 
Freshman
Posts: 10

Age: 40
Reg: 12-08-16
Re: Penn Game #1
02-08-17 10:25 PM - Post#221074    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

I said it. I said it again. And I'll say it once more, Cam Smith can help Dartmouth win games! It's nice to see others finally discussing the huge green elephant in the room.


 
EasyGreen1 
Freshman
Posts: 10

Age: 40
Reg: 12-08-16
Re: Penn Game #1
02-08-17 10:29 PM - Post#221075    
    In response to hoops123

Hoops123, I couldn't agree more.

Edited by EasyGreen1 on 02-08-17 10:30 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
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