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Username Post: Probabilities        (Topic#19885)
cc66 
Postdoc
Posts: 2201

Reg: 10-09-09
02-06-17 11:23 AM - Post#220655    

Yale Sports Analytics now has us with a 59% chance of making the tournament (Brown is at 31). Mike James is somewhat lower at just 50%.

Splitting each of the next 4 weekends would certainly clinch a spot. Beat Penn, lose to Princeton away next weekend. Beat Dartmouth, lose to Harvard away in 2 weeks; beat Penn at home, lose to Princeton, 2/24 & 2/25;and perhaps most difficult of all, beat Brown,lose to Yale away on the final. Note that if we don't go into the final weekend with a 2 game lead over Brown, they could beat both us and Cornell and end in a tie.

That's the plan. Now they just have to execute it.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
02-06-17 11:30 AM - Post#220656    
    In response to cc66

I'd think our odds would be better than that.

And I was pessimistic a month ago.


 
Columbia Alum 
Junior
Posts: 247

Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
02-06-17 11:30 AM - Post#220657    
    In response to cc66

I agree with Mike James, I think Penn away and Brown away are equally difficult and we'll be underdogs for both. Penn at home, we might still be underdogs. We need to root for anyone playing against Brown.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2958

Reg: 03-02-08
02-06-17 11:37 AM - Post#220659    
    In response to Columbia Alum

I think the key here is coaching adjustments that we need to make to avoid second half meltdowns. We have been playing great basketball at both ends of the court for most first halves. But we seem to find it hard to hold onto leads. I'm not sure if it is a question of offensive stagnation which spills over into defensive lapses. If we play with the same intensity that we show in closing out the first half then I think we will do very well.


 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
02-06-17 11:44 AM - Post#220660    
    In response to Chet Forte

That's most due to inexperience. Last year most Lo and Rosie, and partly Mullins carried the load at crunch time. Less was expected of the guys who this year need to be the crunch time heroes.

Also no one on the team is close to as good as Lo or Rosie. No one has stepped up.



 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-06-17 12:19 PM - Post#220665    
    In response to TheLine

Just to be clear - my odds are just KenPom odds simulated for the season. I'm not doing any of my own ratings or anything. Just taking his ratings as inputs and running 1000s of sims. I believe Yale Sports Analytics is doing some proprietary rankings to back up their odds, so that's where the difference comes from

Also my odds are randomly breaking ties but will start doing so in accordance with league tie breaking rules soon (just need confirmation on tiebreaker #2). I'd expect that to benefit Columbia a bit relative to Brown...

 
cc66 
Postdoc
Posts: 2201

Reg: 10-09-09
Probabilities
02-06-17 04:24 PM - Post#220704    
    In response to Columbia Alum

Actually, per KP, the win probabilities diverge considerably: just 27% this weekend against Penn away, 53% against Penn at home, and smack in the middle, 39% away against Brown. The Penn projection derives from its 180 slot on KP, a range it has retained despite an 0-5 IL start and a series of disappointing performances. In short, I don't think that the 27% likelihood of a Columbia victory reflects the way the two teams are currently playing. Our Frontline is bigger and better, and our guards are quicker. All Penn has is the Palestra, so it is not unreasonable to hope that as with their performance in the Brown game, that won't be enough.



Edited by cc66 on 02-06-17 04:25 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2958

Reg: 03-02-08
02-06-17 05:10 PM - Post#220707    
    In response to cc66

Penn will be a desperate team and Steve will be a desperate coach. We will not be able to afford a slow start. I don't think that they will have an answer for Luke. But they will not be easy. They have played well against the Big Five teams. I am also concerned about the officiating. As I have posted previously, the refs have been killing us this year and I worry about Coby and Hickman being taken out of their games. While I think we have a better team right now I do not take this game for granted.


 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3988

Reg: 11-23-04
02-06-17 05:11 PM - Post#220708    
    In response to Chet Forte

Brown has 6 of 8 games left at home. Ain't dead yet.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2958

Reg: 03-02-08
02-06-17 05:58 PM - Post#220711    
    In response to Old Bear

PS, what was the dustup between Martin and Engles all about?


 
cc66 
Postdoc
Posts: 2201

Reg: 10-09-09
02-06-17 06:17 PM - Post#220712    
    In response to Chet Forte

Don't know, but only in the Ivy League would two coaches conclude a dispute by hugging it out.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3988

Reg: 11-23-04
02-06-17 06:20 PM - Post#220713    
    In response to cc66

I saw the hug, missed the dustup.

 
Murph 
Masters Student
Posts: 626

Age: 63
Reg: 09-13-11
02-13-17 09:52 AM - Post#221659    
    In response to Old Bear

That was a disappointing weekend. I was hoping for a split, with a win against Penn. But we looked woefully over-matched on the boards.

The Princeton game was a pleasant surprise, but close doesn't count in basketball.

We very likely need to split the next 6 games to secure 4th place in the standing. But that will require wins on the road against Dartmouth and Brown, and a win at home against Penn or Princeton.

The Lions have their work cut out for them.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2958

Reg: 03-02-08
02-13-17 09:59 AM - Post#221661    
    In response to Murph

Maybe I am a glass half full kind of guy, but we are playing with a rookie coach and only a single returning starter. We lost one of our best players for the year in Castlin, and we are playing with a rookie PG. Nonetheless, we have been competitive in every game and in the league all of our losses are been in single digits. If we play our best ball for the net three weeks we will wind up in the tournament. I think we will. Unfortunately I think that there is a subconscious bias in favor of Penn as the host team, and I hope it does not impact the integrity of the officiating.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
02-13-17 10:07 AM - Post#221662    
    In response to Chet Forte

" I think we will. Unfortunately I think that there is a subconscious bias in favor of Penn as the host team, and I hope it does not impact the integrity of the officiating."


And that's how we ended up with Trump as President.

 
roarlionroar 
Freshman
Posts: 55

Age: 27
Reg: 02-05-14
Probabilities
02-13-17 10:09 AM - Post#221663    
    In response to Chet Forte

"Unfortunately I think that there is a subconscious bias in favor of Penn as the host team, and I hope it does not impact the integrity of the officiating."


It will.

Edited by roarlionroar on 02-13-17 10:10 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-13-17 10:11 AM - Post#221664    
    In response to Chet Forte

Can we seriously stop it with this stuff:

  • Quote:
Unfortunately I think that there is a subconscious bias in favor of Penn as the host team, and I hope it does not impact the integrity of the officiating.



Columbia has underperformed my expectations this year, but only slightly. I didn't expect the offense to deteriorate this quickly, but the defense has held (very) firm in the bad, but not awful, category.

Six wins should be enough, but that really needs to include a win over Penn as one of the two. Without it, you'll probably need seven or you'll need Penn to lose a game it shouldn't.

Lions are definitely the (big) frontrunner for the four-seed right now.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Probabilities
02-13-17 10:21 AM - Post#221667    
    In response to roarlionroar

You realize that the statement itself is self-contradictory. If indeed there is a "subconscious" bias, then it cannot affect non-league officials that referee our games. So what you're really saying is that there is a conscious bias and that a directive has been issued to give Penn the benefit of the calls. That's just ridiculous. Moreover, Penn has 4 road games left, including one at Levien and CU has a 2 game lead. Before this weekend, it had a 4 game lead. Certainly the game at Penn where CU was outrebounded by about 100,000 didn't come down to the refs. And it won't up at Levien either. If CU blows it, it won't have anything to do with the refs.

 
Chet Forte 
Postdoc
Posts: 2958

Reg: 03-02-08
02-13-17 10:45 AM - Post#221671    
    In response to palestra38

I do not think there is a conscious bias. Not at all. What I do think is that the league would like to see Penn in the tournament since it is the host. And if Penn now runs the table they will deserve it.


 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-13-17 10:59 AM - Post#221675    
    In response to Chet Forte

Who exactly is "the league"? The AD's? I am sure Grace Calhoun wants Penn to be in but I am not so sure any of the other AD's want it. The Presidents? I would be surprised if there was any kind of consensus among them on who they want to play in the first tourney. I don't think the Columbia President prefers Penn over the Lions do you?

So who is this "league" that wants Penn in at the expense of another?

 
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