penn nation
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Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-11-17 10:49 PM - Post#221450
In response to TheLine
Technically Penn would win the tie with CU based on head-to-head. But a 4 way tie for 5th, all 2 games behind CU with 6 to play, sheesh.
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cc66
Postdoc
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Reg: 10-09-09
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02-11-17 10:58 PM - Post#221454
In response to TheLine
But Mike James argues on Ivybball that it would be better for Cornell to defeat Penn, even though they'd then be just a game behind. His rationale is that if there is a tie, we have the tie breaker over Cornell (whose schedule is the same as ours), but not over Penn because (so far) we lost to them, and they have higher national rankings. I think I'd prefer a two game lead over everyone, but either way, I now think we'll squeak by into 4th place.
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PennFan10
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Reg: 02-15-15
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02-11-17 11:18 PM - Post#221459
In response to TheLine
This Ivy Tournament thing isn't so bad in my view. These are all meaningful games for every team in the league right now. Usually we are all just talking about P and H and maybe Y at this point.
I am liking it.
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Columbia 37P6
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Reg: 02-14-06
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Lions Trail Penn 28-37 at Halftime
02-12-17 01:24 AM - Post#221464
In response to PennFan10
I'm with you cc--I'll be rooting for Penn over Cornell because I would like the Lions to have a two game lead over Brown Cornell,, Dartmouth and Penn rather than the alternative of a one game lead over Cornell, a two game lead over Brown and Dartmouth, and a three game lead over Penn. While a loss to Cornell tomorrow afternoon, might eliminate Penn as a competitor of Columbia in the race for 4th place, it would also push Cornell into fifth place just one game behind us. Go Quakers!
Edited by Columbia 37P6 on 02-12-17 01:25 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
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02-12-17 11:19 AM - Post#221488
In response to Columbia 37P6
Columbia fans should be rooting for Cornell today and it's not particularly close. If Penn wins today, then the pressure is ON that Penn-Columbia game in two weeks. Frankly, if Columbia loses that game, it would be in big trouble. If Cornell wins today, that game likely doesn't matter for the Quakers and Cornell still (likely) has to outplay you guys by two games down the stretch. Out of 5000 sims, Cornell finished with 7 or 8 wins in about 80 of them, which is less than 2%. They're not the team to be worried about.
Penn got to 7 in 3% of the sims and 6 (which with the tiebreaker is all they'd need) in just over 25%. You want the Quakers dead and gone, ASAP, trust me.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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02-12-17 11:24 AM - Post#221490
In response to mrjames
You're assuming that Penn getting to 6 includes a win at Columbia. They can get to 6 without that, but then they are dead meat, aren't they?
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mrjames
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-12-17 12:31 PM - Post#221506
In response to palestra38
Penn gets to 6 wins (or more, surprisingly enough) given a loss to Columbia about 13% of the time. That being said, over 80% of those times, Columbia gets to 6 or more wins too and about 40% of the time they get to 7 or more. So, indeed, if Penn loses to Columbia, they can still get to 6 wins, but so will Columbia. Penn should be in okay shape with tiebreakers in that case, though.
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Columbia 37P6
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02-12-17 01:39 PM - Post#221510
In response to mrjames
Are you saying that Columbia is "likely" to prevail in a tiebreaker scenario with Cornell? Please explain. I am ready to switch my colors, but would appreciation your clarification. Thank you.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
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02-12-17 02:26 PM - Post#221520
In response to Columbia 37P6
Cornell would have to win one of at Yale or vs Princeton (and Columbia would have to lose those games) for the tiebreaker to flip.
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Columbia 37P6
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Reg: 02-14-06
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02-12-17 03:02 PM - Post#221543
In response to mrjames
Thanks, but with Penn leading Cornell by a 42-14 score at halftime, it's academic, Columbia will have a two-game lead over Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth and Penn with six games remaining.
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cc66
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Reg: 10-09-09
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Lions Trail Penn 28-37 at Halftime
02-12-17 04:08 PM - Post#221573
In response to TheLine
Assuming Penn loses to Harvard and Yale, they now have to beat Columbia, Cornell, and Dartmouth away + Brown at home to get from 2-6 to 6-8. Before this weekend, we were focused on the last weekend of the season Columbia-Brown game. Now the season is more likely to turn on the Penn-Columbia game at Levien one week from Friday.
It's a straight but narrow path, and neither team can afford any mistakes.
Edited by cc66 on 02-12-17 04:10 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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penn nation
Professor
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Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Lions Trail Penn 28-37 at Halftime
02-12-17 04:42 PM - Post#221585
In response to cc66
They lost at Dartmouth and at home to Brown, so you have the locations reversed for those two teams.
But yes, this coming Friday night between Brown and Penn is a must win for Penn. Lose it and they will most likely not make the tourney since Brown would own 2 wins over Penn.
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cc66
Postdoc
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Reg: 10-09-09
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02-12-17 04:57 PM - Post#221587
In response to penn nation
Thanks for the correction. Until someone slips up, the final 3 weeks are going to be compelling.
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