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Username Post: Is it optimism or insanity or something else?        (Topic#19918)
Cvonvorys 
Postdoc
Posts: 4438
Cvonvorys
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
02-11-17 11:56 AM - Post#221350    

Current Ivy League Standings:

Prin = 7-0
Yale = 6-1
Harv = 5-2
Clmb = 4-3
Brwn = 2-5
Crnl = 2-5
PENN = 1-6
Dart = 1-6

Columbia still has Princeton twice, Harvard once and Penn once. That's a lot of losses.

Penn wins on Sunday (By the way that game will be televised: Channel 78/577 on my FIOS channel lineup) and we are two games back of Columbia and one game back of Brown (or in a four-way tie for fifth).

My optimism has returned for our making the playoffs. I'm choosing to believe Sam Jones when he says we are going to run the table. (BTW... No need to post the quote by the Princeton Player who said they were going to win out.)

Then again if we lose on Sunday, I will be hooking up my Stoli I.V. drip, and still that might not be enough pain relief.

Dare I say: Let's Go Princeton?

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 12480

Reg: 12-07-04
02-11-17 12:26 PM - Post#221355    
    In response to Cvonvorys

Just speaks to how frustrating the Harvard, Dartmouth and Brown losses were. Win one of those three and they're really in this thing.

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
02-11-17 05:29 PM - Post#221398    
    In response to Quakers03

Per an earlier comment from Mike James -

Tiebreakers:
1) Head-to-head
2) Record against already qualified tournament teams (this has been reported differently by some as taking the record against each team independently, starting with the 1-seed, then 2-seed, then 3-seed)
3) Average rating from a variety of systems: BPI, RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, there may be one or two others
4) Coin flip

If the favorites hold tonight and tomorrow, the standings would be as follows after 8 games -

Princeton 8-0
Yale 7-1
Harvard 5-3
Columbia 4-4
Brown 3-5
Penn 2-6
Cornell 2-6
Dartmouth 1-7

Last 6 contests:
Columbia - at Harvard, at Dartmouth, vs Princeton, vs Penn, at Brown, at Yale

Brown - vs Penn, vs Princeton, at Dartmouth, at Yale, vs Columbia, vs Cornell

Penn - at Brown, at Yale, at Cornell, at Columbia, vs Dartmouth, vs Harvard

Cornell - at Dartmouth, at Harvard, vs Penn, vs Princeton, at Yale, at Brown

Penn seems to have the best chance at securing Tiebreaker #3.

At this time, Columbia is the only #4-8 team that has a victory over at Top 3 team. As a result, the Lions hold claim to Tiebreaker #2.

It would seem that 8-6, 7-7, or 6-8 could get the 4th spot.

If Penn sweeps the last 6 to go 8-6, then Columbia would only need to lose one additional game (Penn wins Tiebreaker #1). Brown could win all its remaining games (Penn wins Tiebreaker #3). Cornell could not get to 8-6.

If Penn goes 7-7, beating Columbia, Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth and Harvard/Yale, then Columbia would need to lose to any two teams (Penn wins Tiebreaker #1). Brown would need to lose one additional game, including one of Princeton/Harvard (Penn wins Tiebreaker #3). Cornell could win all its remaining games (Penn wins Tiebreaker #1).

If Penn goes 7-7, beating Columbia, Brown, Cornell, Harvard and Yale, then Columbia would need to lose to any two teams (Penn wins Tiebreaker #1). Brown would need to lose one additional game (Penn wins Tiebreaker #3). Cornell could win all its remaining games (Penn wins Tiebreaker #1).

If Penn goes 6-8, beating Columbia, Brown and Cornell, but not Harvard or Yale, then Columbia would need to lose any three games. Brown would need to lose two other games, including both Harvard and Princeton. Cornell would need to lose one other game.

I would greatly appreciate it if anyone reading could double check those scenarios.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-11-17 05:52 PM - Post#221400    
    In response to rbg

I think there's a simpler practical rule of thumb here:

Penn has to beat Brown and Columbia. It has to beat other teams too, but lose either of those games, and the dream is dead. If the Quakers do that, they'll have the tiebreaker over Columbia and unless Brown beats Princeton at home or wins at Harvard, then Penn will have that tiebreaker too.

So that's 3 wins. That leaves vs Dartmouth, vs Cornell, at Cornell, vs Harvard and at Yale to go 3-2. Any three would do unless Brown wins at Harvard, in which case you'll need one of the Harvard/Yale games.

I wouldn't worry about 7-7 or 8-6. If you beat Brown and Columbia, they're going to struggle to get to 7 wins. If you don't beat both, then it doesn't matter how many wins it takes for 4th, because you're not in the running. It's long odds that you'll get both, but if you do, 6-8 will get it done.

 
Cvonvorys 
Postdoc
Posts: 4438
Cvonvorys
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
02-11-17 06:22 PM - Post#221404    
    In response to mrjames

Which is why I am now optimistic, and hope to continue to feel optimistic this time on Sunday.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
02-11-17 07:03 PM - Post#221410    
    In response to Cvonvorys

Raspenntin. What do we have to do to kill this team off?

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 12480

Reg: 12-07-04
02-12-17 08:41 AM - Post#221473    
    In response to rbg

Why do you guys have to do this to me? There is so little in the Philly sports world (present not future) that I'll take anything I can get. Hope is great but I was just starting to come to grips with it. I can't believe Columbia almost won last night.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
02-12-17 08:43 AM - Post#221474    
    In response to Quakers03

Really feels good to win. But let's not get ahead of ourselves with 4 tough road games left. Remember the mantra---One game at a time.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
02-12-17 10:06 AM - Post#221477    
    In response to palestra38

But you're the one who got Sam Jones focused on winning 8 in a row! Can somebody tell him to just focus on this afternoon?

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
02-12-17 10:19 AM - Post#221478    
    In response to SomeGuy

Everything is my fault. : (

 
Penn7277 
PhD Student
Posts: 1365

Loc: Lancaster, PA
Reg: 11-21-04
02-12-17 02:42 PM - Post#221533    
    In response to SomeGuy

am actually mentioned winning the next 8 on the post-game show before P38 even mentioned it.

 
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