Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



 Page 5 of 6 « First<3456
Username Post: Yale, etc        (Topic#19929)
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
02-20-17 05:53 PM - Post#222717    
    In response to umbrellaman

No takers for my #champion's-losses+!-post -season-field plan? Combine that with hosting the tourney at the regular-season champ's home court and you might have something. You could always add a cap of four teams maximum, although if Dartmouth ever won with a 9-5 record and there were no cap, having six teams playing off in Hanover would be weird but memorable.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
02-20-17 06:09 PM - Post#222719    
    In response to umbrellaman

I believe that Vegas would currently have Princeton as a 2 to 4 pt favorite, probably 3 pts, at a neutral site with Harvard based on performance y-t-d. The spread would probably change based on the remaining four games, particularly the result of the Harvard game at Jadwin.

As to Penn, the spread would be less than when the Tigers played Penn not that long ago based on the recent improved play of Penn. Right now, the spread might be 5 to 7 points. The key fact is that the spread differential playing H-Y-P at a neutral sight vs. at Palestra should be around 2 points, a home court competitive advantage for Penn.

I love the concept that if any one of the three teams lose to Penn at the Palestra in a one game scenario, all three teams would lose in the NCAA tournament in game one.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
02-20-17 08:13 PM - Post#222746    
    In response to SRP

I have a different perspective. Coach H should try his very best to have the Tigers go 14-0. There can be a risk as to injury and fatigue but it would be worth it. Few IL teams have achieved undefeated status and the players will remember what they achieved along with the League Championship banner for the rest of their lives. Play to win!!

If they go 16-0 vs. 14-0, very challenging, so much the better but that requires that they win six more games in a row with some tough competition. If they do not get to the NCAA Tournament, it will be very disappointing but there is probably a 50% chance that it will happen although Vegas will be able to handicap the odds at the end of the season. Bummer for Weisz and Cook.

The simple solution to all the madness was to have the IL Champion get an automatic bid and another Ivy team get a second bid if they cracked the top 50 but that would be a function of earning the bids the tough way.

Let's first be the Ivy League Champions before all of the other stuff. Columbia will be beyond desperate.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
02-20-17 09:02 PM - Post#222758    
    In response to bradley

If you recall, my fantasy at the beginning of the season was, as always, going undefeated overall and winning the national championship. So I'm still not giving up on 14-0 or 16-0 or 22-0 from here on out.

But coaches may have different utility functions from fans.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-20-17 09:08 PM - Post#222759    
    In response to SRP

Home court is worth 3-4 pts.

Princeton would likely open as a 3-4 pt favorite over both Harvard on a neutral court and Penn on the road.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-20-17 09:14 PM - Post#222760    
    In response to mrjames

That's a 7 point swing if you are Princeton playing Penn at the Palestra compared to having the regular season champion host that playoff game. Big difference!

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
02-20-17 09:18 PM - Post#222761    
    In response to SRP

My fantasy too. However, if forced to choose, I'll take a real championship and a lost NCAA BID to some less worthy team over runner-up in league play followed by tourney cup (and free pizza!) and a bid (with a crappy seed) and, likely, a forgettable, short run at the Dance.

Champions are the ones who prevail over the long haul.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-20-17 09:20 PM - Post#222762    
    In response to Tiger69

I really got into Dunk City, but maybe that was just me...

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
02-20-17 09:27 PM - Post#222763    
    In response to Tiger69

So I take it you are a conscientious objector if a wild card wins any professional sports championship?

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
02-20-17 10:48 PM - Post#222781    
    In response to penn nation

I would rather play in the NCAA tournament than win the Ivy regular season. See, Kansas never has to worry about choices like that.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
02-20-17 11:07 PM - Post#222786    
    In response to SRP

Thanks for the Trumpesque deflection of the question, but your thoughts on wild card teams?

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
02-21-17 12:29 AM - Post#222794    
    In response to penn nation

I thought you were talking to someone else. There is no comparability with NFL wild cards. The division winners always make the playoffs--they don't have to first beat the second-place team from their division, then enter the playoffs. WCs are like at-large bids.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
02-21-17 12:51 AM - Post#222796    
    In response to penn nation

PN: Frankly, I'm not a pro sports nut. The purpose of pro sports is making money through entertainment, so they can and will do anything they want to fill the seats and get on TV. But the Ivy League was founded because its member institutions believed that the emphasis on college sports had grown out of hand with their educational purpose. So, I don't find your question relevant.

 
Tiger81 
Masters Student
Posts: 409
Tiger81
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-21-17 07:35 AM - Post#222801    
    In response to bradley

Bradley, I'm with you. Tanking and/or resting starters and trying to game the league tournament seeds seems misguided to me. Going undefeated in the 14GT would be very difficult and a huge accomplishment for Coach Henderson and the Tigers. Having to win another 2 games in 24 hours including the possibility of playing Penn on its home court would be another enormous challenge, but if they pull it off their 16-0 record would likely result in the best possible outcome for this year's team for its NCAA seeding. In any case the seniors are likely to bring the league title back to Princeton, which when Brase and Caruso went down seemed highly unlikely. Being part of March Madness is such a career culmination and thrill for the players and their fans, it is a shame that earning the right to represent the league there has been reduced to a weekend crapshoot for players like Weisz, Cook and Miller who have worked their tails off for 4 years to realize that dream.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
02-21-17 09:45 AM - Post#222819    
    In response to Tiger81

Well said. There is still plenty of work to do over the next four games. The road trip this weekend will be challenging based on Columbia's desperate need to win and Coach Earl will be calling out Princeton's plays once again -- this time, at Ithaca. Throw on top playing a young but talented Crimson team the following weekend. I do believe that Coach H owes it to Weisz, Cook and others to go for the gold.

It is starting to become clearer as to the likely seeding for each one of the IL Tournament teams if they win although the remaining games will have an impact. Historically, big difference as to the success of teams between #12/13 vs. #15/16. Ivy League's reputation has been enhanced based on their recent performance at the Big Dance; certainly not their non-conference performance. Why at the NCAA tournament? Very good teams have represented the IL in recent years.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-21-17 10:03 AM - Post#222824    
    In response to bradley

Umm, here are our recent strong NCAA performances:

2011 - Loss at buzzer to UK by a Princeton team that was a made 2pt J away from not representing the league

2013 - Win over New Mexico by a Harvard team that needed an epic Princeton collapse in the final weekend or else it would have been playing in the CIT

2015 - Loss at buzzer to UNC by a Harvard team that only was there due to Gabas Maldunas

2016 - Win over Baylor by a Yale team that only avoided a playoff due to Patrick Steeves.

2014 was the only recent year when a team won the league by a healthy margin and impressed in the NCAA Tournament.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
02-21-17 11:31 AM - Post#222846    
    In response to mrjames

If I understand your point correctly although I am not sure what is your point, the IL's reputation has not been enhanced by the performance of Princeton, Harvard(s) or Yale over the past six years or that there would not have been any significant difference in results by a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place team who would have received a 15th or 16th seed.

2016- Harvard (14-16) vs. Yale (23-7)

2015 -- Dartmouth (14-15) or Princeton (16-14) vs. Harvard (22-8)

2014 -- Columbia (21-13)or Yale (19-14) vs. Harvard (27-5)

2013 -- Brown (13-15) or Yale (14-17) vs. Harvard (20-10)

2012 -- Yale (19-10) vs. Harvard (26-5)


But I believe based on your prior comments, you believe that it is highly unlikely that a Penn or a Columbia or a Yale can win the IL Tournament this year. Some analysts have already put out projections as to the chances of each of the possible four seeds to get the coveted automatic bid.



 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-21-17 12:31 PM - Post#222853    
    In response to bradley

I was responding to this:

  • Quote:
Historically, big difference as to the success of teams between #12/13 vs. #15/16. Ivy League's reputation has been enhanced based on their recent performance at the Big Dance; certainly not their non-conference performance. Why at the NCAA tournament? Very good teams have represented the IL in recent years.



This implies (or sort of explicitly states) that any team other than the 1-seed representing the league would have impacted our recent tourney performance adversely because they would be, presumably, lower seeded. Yet in 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2016 - all years in which we won or lost at the buzzer in our R64 game - we had two teams that would have been basically the same seed.

And when you look at the odds that *both* of those teams would have failed to win the bid, it's a very long shot. So, you can go ahead and fearmonger about the "what if" of a 4th place Dartmouth team winning in 2015, but Harvard and Yale would win that bid like 90+% of the time.

I don't like the 4th seed having home court. Hopefully that's clear. It will distort the odds of the best team(s) winning. But absent that HCA issue, there's a long track record of people's fears about the quality drop from the 1-seed down being comically overblown.

 
bradley 
PhD Student
Posts: 1842

Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
02-21-17 02:31 PM - Post#222874    
    In response to mrjames

If one disregards the notion that the winner of the Ivy League has earned the right to represent the league based on won-lost record, i.e. Bill Parcells theory that you are what your record says you are, it sounds like you are advocating a two team playoff system rather than the four team format if the objective was to enhance the reputation of the Ivy League based on the probable performance of the IL team in the NCAA tournament over time based on your comments.

The current projection of Yale, Penn and/or Yale, as roughly having a collective 25% chance to win the IL Tournament and receive a 15 to 16 seed falls into your fear mongering category, I guess.

There are some legitimate arguments as to the tournament such as keeping the hopes of 8 teams alive, the excitement of the tournament, etc. but the concept that the IL Tournament winner will perform similar to the Ivy League Champion over time may fall into the category of stretching a vivid imagination to justify a desired result.


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Yale, etc
02-21-17 06:39 PM - Post#222914    
    In response to bradley

This year is interesting on this point. Unless the home court advantage catapults Penn to the title, different biases and perspectives could support HP or even Y as the 'best' NCAA representative. Princeton has experience and is undefeated, but the glaring hole at the center position and the lack of experienced depth due to injuries means that long athletic teams could blow Princeton out of the building. Yale is more athletic, but its larger athletes are young and its bigs are not athletic. Harvard is a moving target. Zena is the only big that can play with anyone, Siyani is the most experienced PG and can boast 3 years of NCAA success. On the other hand, the rest of the team are freshmen and the 3pt shooting unreliable.

Likely, it all depends on the opponent and good fortune (e.g., 3 pt shooting).

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 02-21-17 06:40 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
 Page 5 of 6 « First<3456
Icon Legend Permissions Topic Options
Report Post

Quote Post

Quick Reply

Print Topic

Email Topic

11607 Views




Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.224 seconds.   Total Queries: 16   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 05:51 AM
Top