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Username Post: Brown Game #2        (Topic#19966)
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
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Reg: 05-19-16
02-19-17 05:38 PM - Post#222570    

Dartmouth Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 19, 2017

• After beating Columbia 80-79, Dartmouth is now projected to finish the regular season 7-20 (4-10 Ivy).
• We currently rank Dartmouth as the #281 team in the country, and the #8 team in the Ivy.
• Next game: Fri, Feb 24 vs. #273 Brown. Our power ratings give the Big Green a 63% chance to win.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Go Green 
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Reg: 04-22-10
Re: Brown Game #2
02-19-17 05:48 PM - Post#222576    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

  • GoBigGreenBasketball Said:
Dartmouth Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 19, 2017

• After beating Columbia 80-79, Dartmouth is now projected to finish the regular season 7-20 (4-10 Ivy).
• We currently rank Dartmouth as the #281 team in the country, and the #8 team in the Ivy.
• Next game: Fri, Feb 24 vs. #273 Brown. Our power ratings give the Big Green a 63% chance to win.



These seem to contradict each other.

Do they expect Brown to win other games to overtake us in the standings even after we beat them again? Or is it possible to be "ranked" #8 in the Ivies even if you finish (say) 6th in the standings?

Edited by Go Green on 02-19-17 05:52 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
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02-19-17 07:37 PM - Post#222590    
    In response to Go Green

Home court advantage...

 
Go Green 
Junior
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02-19-17 08:16 PM - Post#222593    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
Home court advantage...



That will explain why we are expected to win the game.

But it doesn't explain the #8 ranking. If we win on Friday (as projected), we will be two games up on Brown with three left to play.

Theoretically, we could still finish 8th if we win against Brown. But it seems very, very unlikely.

 
SomeGuy 
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02-19-17 11:19 PM - Post#222621    
    In response to Go Green

Well, I assume the overall rankings are like kenpom or the rpi, where they are evaluating the teams based on the entire season. So Brown's out of conference superiority still gets considered, regardless of what happened in the conference season. To me, that makes sense. I think the total picture over 27 games is more accurate than the picture over 14. I think Brown is better than Dartmouth, frankly, but it is close enough that you could easily have Dartmouth end up ahead over a 14 game Ivy season. Heck, it's easy enough to see Dartmouth finishing as high as 5th. If you play the season 1000 times, even assuming Dartmouth is 285 in the country and last in the Ivy, they're going to come up ahead of Brown plenty of times.

 
hoopla 
Masters Student
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02-20-17 10:07 AM - Post#222637    
    In response to SomeGuy

I think we're better than Brown. I think NOT looking at our opening 9 games gives a more accurate depiction of how good we are. I also think we are on an upswing and that Coach Mac is putting it together. The worst is behind us. It is too bad it was almost an entire season of bad, but the future is bright! We have some serious weapons and players, and next year both coaching staff and players will have an added year of experience.

 
Go Green 
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Reg: 04-22-10
02-20-17 10:15 AM - Post#222638    
    In response to SomeGuy

  • SomeGuy Said:
Well, I assume the overall rankings are like kenpom or the rpi, where they are evaluating the teams based on the entire season. So Brown's out of conference superiority still gets considered, regardless of what happened in the conference season. To me, that makes sense. I think the total picture over 27 games is more accurate than the picture over 14. I think Brown is better than Dartmouth, frankly, but it is close enough that you could easily have Dartmouth end up ahead over a 14 game Ivy season. Heck, it's easy enough to see Dartmouth finishing as high as 5th. If you play the season 1000 times, even assuming Dartmouth is 285 in the country and last in the Ivy, they're going to come up ahead of Brown plenty of times.



I was under the impression that these "rankings" were actually attempts to project the final league standings.

If I was mistaken, and these are just "power" rankings regardless of the real-life results, then I'll treat them accordingly.

 
SomeGuy 
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Reg: 11-22-04
02-20-17 08:36 PM - Post#222751    
    In response to Go Green

Well, that's a fair question. I always interpreted 281, 8th in the Ivy as telling us where 281 ranks among the Ivy schools. Could be two different things.

And to hoopla's point, I certainly think it is arguable that Dartmouth is better now. Brown, Dartmouth, and Cornell are all pretty close.

 
hoopla 
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02-21-17 10:34 AM - Post#222834    
    In response to SomeGuy

I let go of my kenpom subscription in mid December, so I'm basing this on the eye test and on my perception of the programs and their evolving contexts and trajectories over the last 5+ years... But I think with Columbia's personnel losses and with Penn still recovering/rebuilding that Dartmouth is right there with those two teams as well. I thought we'd be better than Penn this year.

 
Go Green 
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Brown Game #2
02-21-17 10:46 AM - Post#222840    
    In response to hoopla

  • hoopla Said:
I thought we'd be better than Penn this year.



If we win next week at the Palestra, you would have a pretty good case that we are indeed better than Penn.

Even if we are "ranked" 8th by the computers.

Edited by Go Green on 02-21-17 10:53 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
hoopla 
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02-21-17 10:49 AM - Post#222841    
    In response to Go Green

Yep

 
hoopla 
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Age: 43
Reg: 08-28-12
Brown Game #2
02-22-17 12:06 PM - Post#222996    
    In response to hoopla

Back to the Brown game. Is Brown too demoralized to win any more games? We have managed to stay out of that zone despite an abysmal season, probably because our guys see a bright future. I sense Brown is lacking the confidence and strength that comes with a positive outlook. We need to remain focused and vigilant in case they pull it together for a night. Another huge game for us.

Edited by hoopla on 02-22-17 12:07 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Go Green 
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Age: 46
Reg: 04-22-10
Re: Brown Game #2
02-22-17 12:13 PM - Post#222997    
    In response to hoopla

  • hoopla Said:
Another huge game for us.



I figure that if we don't finish 3-1, we're out.

And even then might not be enough...

 
hoopla 
Masters Student
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Age: 43
Reg: 08-28-12
02-22-17 01:25 PM - Post#223013    
    In response to Go Green

They can do it!

 
Go Green 
Junior
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Age: 46
Reg: 04-22-10
02-22-17 02:04 PM - Post#223018    
    In response to hoopla

  • hoopla Said:
They can do it!



Brown should be the easiest of the remaining games. Hopefully we take care of business.

 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
02-22-17 09:06 PM - Post#223069    
    In response to Go Green

We need to win both of these home games and draw on the momentum those wins will provide.
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
GoBigGreenBasketball 
Masters Student
Posts: 425

Age: 45
Reg: 05-19-16
02-23-17 08:39 PM - Post#223160    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

I anticipate our hot shooting will continue, especially since we're at home. I think if guys play hard and within themselves we have a better than the odds chance to sweep this weekend.

Go Big Green Basketball!!!
"...no excuses - only results!”


 
Old Bear 
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Reg: 11-23-04
Brown Game #2
02-24-17 10:23 PM - Post#223443    
    In response to GoBigGreenBasketball

I came back to this post to reread the above. This may have been the worst refereed game I have ever seen, but the better team won.

 
hoopla 
Masters Student
Posts: 484

Age: 43
Reg: 08-28-12
02-24-17 10:57 PM - Post#223453    
    In response to Old Bear

Agree to disagree, Old Bear.

 
hoops123 
Freshman
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Age: 46
Reg: 12-14-16
02-25-17 01:43 AM - Post#223474    
    In response to hoopla

Mike. Fleming. Is. A. Disaster. We lost the Brown game today because of our poor defense, led by "run by me any time you want" Fleming...he was awful.

 
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