PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-22-17 12:29 AM - Post#222961
I spent some time looking at the candidates and their relevant stats and I think it's a two horse race between Oni and AJ. Mike Smith and Bruner are a distant 3rd and 4th and their is some merit to Aiken and maybe Towns in the initial conversation. But the numbers Oni and AJ are putting up distance them from the others.
If I was voting today, begrudgingly I would probably vote for Oni.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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02-22-17 12:50 AM - Post#222962
In response to PennFan10
Aiken is in the top tier for sure -- top scorer among rookies, highest usage and efficiency, plus big shots in his highlight reel.
Two things are working against Brodeur: 1) Coaches have weighted Ivy play more heavily in the past, which is where he's struggled; 2) Brodeur gets more of his value from defense, which usually gets less consideration.
I thiiiink I'd take Brodeur today, because of the defense and because he was so good for the first two months. But it's close enough to swing in the final two weeks.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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Ivy League ROY
02-22-17 02:01 AM - Post#222966
In response to whitakk
Aiken doesn't do enough that would separate him from Oni. He doesn't get steals, rebounds, or shoot a high 3pt%. Brodeur is in the zip code in scoring and FG% and his blocks and rebounds puts him in the top tier in my book. Oni is top 10 in all those categories, making him an impact player in many more ways than any of the others.
Scoring: (league rank)
Smith 14.5 (6th)
Aiken 14.0 (7th)
Oni 13.5 (9th)
AJ 10.8 (19th)
Assists:
Smith 3.6 (4th)
Aiken 2.9 (9th)
Oni 2.4 (11th)
rebounds:
AJ 7.1 (3rd)
Oni 5.9 (6th)
blocks:
AJ 3.3 (1st)
Oni 1.0 (6th)
Towns 0.6 (12th)
Edited by PennFan10 on 02-22-17 02:02 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Ivy League ROY
02-22-17 08:52 AM - Post#222975
In response to PennFan10
Aiken is the 4th-most efficient freshman in the nation of those using 28+% of team possessions behind Fultz, Smith and Jackson. He will, indeed, struggle in counting stat battles since he's 10-15% team minutes behind AJ, Oni and Mike Smith. He also has to deal with the fact that there are other very talented, productive freshmen on his own team. The voting will be crazy this year.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1145
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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02-22-17 08:56 AM - Post#222976
In response to mrjames
May come down to whoever is the hottest the last two weeks.
That's pretty much what happened with Miles Wright two years ago.
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Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts: 247
Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
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02-22-17 10:22 AM - Post#222980
In response to Go Green
Aiken, Smith, Oni and Brodeur. It's a 4 way toss up, no one is significantly bests the others so far.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-22-17 10:25 AM - Post#222982
In response to Columbia Alum
If efficiency is the criteria coaches use, Aiken is in the conversation. But he gets diluted by less minutes and, while he has impressive offensive stats, he is not a good defender yet. It's a two horse race..Oni and Brodeur. Those two guys impact their team the most on both ends of the floor.
If Smith leads his team to the tourney, he may get in the conversation. I think Brodeur closed the gap with Oni by winning in New Haven Sunday. How he finishes will be a big factor.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Re: Ivy League ROY
02-22-17 11:14 AM - Post#222989
In response to PennFan10
I think you missed Towns at 11.3ppg (15T)
Don't think Towns is in the running though.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-22-17 11:42 AM - Post#222993
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Towns would be the next guy. I looked at him but he didn't have enough overall stats to get into the top 5 or so. If he played all season like he has recently, may be a different conversation.
Also looked at Chris Lewis and Bassey but all of those frosh are cannibalizing each other.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-22-17 12:44 PM - Post#223003
In response to PennFan10
You're right. That's akin to why I think Boudreaux or Spieth are POY candidates. Gotta think Brodeur for ROY as he's impacted Penn's resurgence more than Oni has impacted Yale.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Ivy League ROY
02-23-17 12:25 AM - Post#223083
In response to mrjames
And this after the otherworldly statistical performances of Boudreaux and Morgan last year. Seems to be a good time to be a freshman.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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02-23-17 09:10 AM - Post#223088
In response to Columbia Alum
Last two weekends will decide which one of these four candidates get ROY as you point out. Brodeur and Smith may have their cause helped if they play well and get their team into the IL playoff.
Spieth and Boudreaux are for IL POY and in all likelihood it will go to Spieth as he is a senior unless something dramatic happens over the next two weeks. Chambers and Weisz are out of the running based on the numbers.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-17 09:17 AM - Post#223089
In response to bradley
POY will come down to whichever Princeton guy everyone agrees on. No other players are in the running, and my presumption is that will remain true unless the Tigers fall apart over the final two weekends, which I don't think will happen.
ROY is indeed Aiken, Oni, Brodeur, Smith. Aiken and Oni are a fraction ahead right now. My guess would be that if no one stands out over the final two weeks, it'll go to whichever of Aiken and Oni have their teams finish higher.
DPOY - could be an 8-way tie. All over the map right now.
Didn't ask about COY.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-23-17 10:24 AM - Post#223101
In response to mrjames
I have to think Oni is the odds on favorite for ROY. He makes too many plays on both ends of the floor. His numbers on offense are not too far off Aiken and his defensive presence isn't comparable. Brodeur is the only other player and his struggles early in IL play will keep him from being considered w Oni in my view.
I totally agree with POY. It will be whomever Henderson nominates on his team and it won't be close. Weisz is most likely and Cook is a good bet too. Spieth has no chance.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-23-17 11:10 AM - Post#223104
In response to PennFan10
COY should go to Mitch. There's a good chance it'll go to the coach of whichever team finishes 4th (assuming Yale doesn't go into a tailspin, in which case the team that comes in 3rd).
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-23-17 12:06 PM - Post#223109
In response to TheLine
I can't see Donahue getting it after allowing his team to start 0-6.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-23-17 12:29 PM - Post#223112
In response to Quakers03
Can't see COY being anyone other than Henderson - even if Harvard somehow manages to become the top seed. Princeton will be a 14-0/13-1 team that overcame season ending injuries to it's leading scorer and rebounder from EACH of the last two seasons. Slipping into the tournament as the 4th seed doesn't really reflect COY worthy success as it appears that the 4th place team will have a 6-8 or 7-7 record.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-23-17 12:48 PM - Post#223113
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
or 8-6!!??
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-23-17 12:51 PM - Post#223114
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
I could make an argument for Amaker or (prior to Yale's slide) Jones, but if Henderson goes 14-0/13-1 and wins the league by 2+ games, it might very well be unanimous. In the (currently) 3.5% chance that Harvard catches Princeton, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tommy win it, but otherwise, I think it'll be Mitch in a big way.
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Bryan
Junior
Posts: 231
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Ivy League ROY
02-23-17 03:03 PM - Post#223126
In response to mrjames
Ivy POY was 1st awarded after the 1974-75 season. The last time the Ivy POY was from a team with less than 7 Ivy wins was 1980-81 when Larry Lawrence from Dartmouth (3-11) won the award. The only other time it was awarded to a player on a team with less than 7 Ivy wins was in 1979-1980, when Peter Moss from Brown (6-8) was POY.
Edited by Bryan on 02-23-17 03:12 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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