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Post: Cornell II (Topic#19990)

Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8312

Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04

02-23-17 03:35 PM - Post#223132

The line opened at Penn -3.5.

The weekly SD interview did not reveal anything we did not already know. He spoke highly of the role Betley and Goodman are playing in the winning streak and AJ's adjustments to what opponents are doing defensively. He also mentioned the ability to mix 1-3-1, man, and matchup zone defenses.

FYI:
Princeton is -7
Harvard -4 (at home - that seems a bit low)
Dartmouth -1.5

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

02-23-17 06:23 PM - Post#223153
In response to Streamers

That's a Columbia cover and I'm now even more nervous about Cornell. That is not a very big number.

Agreed on Harvard, especially with the way Yale has been playing.

Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8312

Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04

02-23-17 09:58 PM - Post#223163
In response to Quakers03

I think the line should be more like 6 but I have a feeling Yale will play well this weekend and could well sweep.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

02-24-17 12:17 AM - Post#223168
In response to Streamers

Penn and Harvard both up to 5.5 now.

rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3065

Reg: 10-20-14

02-24-17 01:56 PM - Post#223231
In response to Quakers03

At the Yale Undergraduate Sports Analytics Group's twitter feed, they have Penn with a 60.8% Win Probability and 4.8 Score Differential against Cornell.

They have the Quakers with a 52.0% Win Probability and 0.9 Score Differential against Columbia.

They have Princeton with a 62.3% Win Probability and 5.5 Score Differential against Columbia for tonight's game.

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590

Reg: 02-15-15

02-24-17 02:18 PM - Post#223239
In response to Quakers03

I listened to "On the Vine" where Mike James was a guest (yes the connection problems almost made me quit). Mike James said he is "nervous about Penn". He went on to say (before he got disconnected) that they are not as good as the recent 4 game stretch and he thinks it was more about good shooting. He also fundamentally believes (If I heard it right) that Penn wasn't 0-6 bad or 4-0 good.

Mike Tony (I think it was him) said Penn's run was more about defense than offense.

As I look at the 4-0 run Penn has made, the only game we shot way over our average, which is 33.9%, from 3 was Brown (+14%). Against Yale we shot 6% over our average and shot pretty close to our average against Cornell (33.3%) and Columbia (35.3%). Defensively Brown (+1.3%), Cornell (+8.4%) and Columbia (+17.3%) shot above their 3pt average against us. Yale shot 14% below their 3pt average against us.

2pt shooting tells a different story. We shot above our average (52.6%) against Yale (+6%), way above our average against Cornell (+20%) and Brown (+14%) and below our average against Columbia (-9%). Defensively every team shot below their 2pt average against us. Yale (-8%), Brown (-4.6%), Cornell (-16%), Columbia (-23%).

It's also interesting that we are the worst Free throw shooting team in the IL and ranked last in FT defense.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

02-24-17 05:09 PM - Post#223284
In response to PennFan10

I agree with him. I'm hopeful that the confidence carries over and they have turned the corner, but I fear it could be very easy to slip back into some of the things that led us to starting 0-6. Tonight will tell us a lot.

Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8312

Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04

02-24-17 05:10 PM - Post#223285
In response to PennFan10

Mike is correct about the streaks, IMHO, but I fully expect that even a mediocre performance will beat Cornell. I also expect them to shoot relatively poorly at Columbia. Our guys always struggle there, it seems, especially the freshmen, but defense and vastly improved rebounding will save the day if they can hit some FTs.

Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3619

Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04

02-24-17 07:46 PM - Post#223321
In response to Streamers

Yeah I'm just as worried as he is! Let's hope tonight quells some of those fears.

AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4366

Reg: 11-21-04

02-24-17 07:47 PM - Post#223322
In response to Mike Porter

No Rothschild tonight

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

02-24-17 08:09 PM - Post#223324
In response to AsiaSunset

I was just going to ask why we're seeing Dwyer. What happened? That is big for the weekend.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

02-24-17 08:14 PM - Post#223325
In response to Quakers03

Devon is just so quick. The d is there again, which is great to see. Betley is really good at picking guards clean. AJ with a nice steal too.

PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3590

Reg: 02-15-15

Cornell II
02-24-17 08:14 PM - Post#223326
In response to Quakers03

I have heard its just for tonight.

Edited by PennFan10 on 02-24-17 08:18 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

02-24-17 08:15 PM - Post#223328
In response to PennFan10

Cryptic but I'll take it. Jackson again. Huge.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

02-24-17 08:16 PM - Post#223329
In response to Quakers03

I love the confidence but Jackson can't take a 30 footer like that. And now he has 2 fouls.

Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001

Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04

02-24-17 08:17 PM - Post#223330
In response to Quakers03

Donahue had 25 here last year, so obviously likes the shooting background.

Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533

Reg: 12-07-04

Cornell II
02-24-17 08:19 PM - Post#223331
In response to Chip Bayers

And I have no problem shooting a real set shot, I just didn't need to see that. The blocks are accumulating early but Cornell has had a few end of shot clock points where we played great d and just got unlucky.