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Username Post: Where is the program?        (Topic#20008)
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
02-25-17 12:34 AM - Post#223467    

It is useful to put aside the excitement of competing to make the post-season tournament for a moment and examine the progress of The Process. As nice as the run has been we must remember that all it gets us is a date with a real contender in the opening round of the playoff. Beating Princeton and then probably Harvard will be a tall order. More likely Penn will finish the Ivy Season 7-8 or 6-9 even it makes the playoff. That is a long stride from legitimate contention.

Against that reality we have four very encouraging accomplishments that point to such contention, maybe even next year, easily a year ahead of schedule.

First, The improvement in Howard - moving into star territory; Foreman - becoming a solid Ivy Guard and Max - becoming also a solid Ivy big man shows that Donahue can improve players.

Second, the move of the defense to rank 107 nationally on the KenPom site is a major accomplishment for a coach who 'can't coach defense." And it's done without a lot of athleticism.

Third, Freshmen now account for eleven of the best scores on the team in KenPom's individual skill metrics. This includes two legitimate star candidates in AJ and Ryan and perhaps another in the rapidly developing Goodman. Clearly Steve can recruit and bring along the youngsters quickly. Also four of the other five metrics are led by sophomores if one limits the field to the top eight players who dominate the minutes and are the clear core. It's a rapidly improving young team.

Finally and fourth, the incoming frosh are the best on paper in many years.

So in most of the areas we are looking for improvement in we have gotten it.

As to contention. Harvard, the supposedly untouchably more talented team is tied with Penn in defensive metrics. It's lead in offence is made on offensive rebounding, 3 percentage and free throw percentage. Penn can easily erase two of those three next year and close the gap on rebounding. Penn loses 14% of its minutes against 22% for Harvard, including their best player Chambers.

As to the Tiggers. They lose 44% of their minutes this next year. That will bring them back close enough that some good fortune could bring Penn even - same with Harvard.

So whatever happens over the next three to five games, we have cause for optimism, real optimism for the first time in many years. Clearly the miraculous arrival of Ryan Betley has taken the team to a new level. He put the team on his back tonight in only his 14th game. In that critical last minute he had a block and rebound and made both free throws. After watching Penn's awful free throw shooting for many years, to include some of Franny's, watching him on the line knowing that the ball is going to fall through the twines is a thing of beauty. He is exactly the kind of diamond in the rough that Mike James has correctly identified as the Ivies' main source of talent.

How good will Penn be next year if Steve can move Ryan, Devon and AJ up the execution curve like he has with Matt Howard and Darnell Foreman. Throw in some combination of Woods and the highly rated freshmen and the team will have a talented top eight clearly at the level we want. If Harvard or Princeton is still better, then the Ivies will have clearly arrived in two-team territory for the Dance. 23-7 with an at-large invitation to the NC's would be fine with me.



 
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