UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1120
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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02-26-17 12:24 PM - Post#223740
Sadly, falling short at Columbia reminds us that Penn is not yet a legitimate contender. However, the stats for the game were not striking except for the usual defensive rebounding problem and the unusually low 2 shooting percentage. Accordingly, I went to KenPom and collected the national ranking stats for all of the Ivy Champs back to 2002 and compared them to Penn this year to get some idea of what a champion looks like and where Penn needs to improve to be an ‘average’ Ivy Champion. (Note I have declared Princeton the Champion for 2017.) Here’s what I found. The average champ ranked 74 and Penn ranks 150, almost exactly twice the standard. The weakest ranking was Cornell’s 124 in ‘08, but the lowest in the last eight years was 79 for Princeton in 11. It’s obvious that The Process has a way to go. Since the last Allen team ranked 291 it is also obvious that The Process has come a long way.
The real insight of the numbers is what they tell us about the critical skills of a champ. To search to that I constructed a ranking methodology that combines the average score and its standard deviation. A low average ranking (low is good) with a low standard dev gives a strong indicator. The winners in that methodology are total ranking, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, defensive rebounding, 2D, 2O, and low use of the bench. Getting to the line on offense and offensive rebounding are unimportant, with everything else in the middle, including 3 shooting and turnovers. Interestingly on TEN of the stats over those sixteen years the Ivy champ ranked in the top ten nationally in one of the stats, most notably Cornell’s 1 ranking in 3% 2010. Last year Yale ranked 5th in offensive rebounding and 7th in defensive rebounding. Who would’a tought Yalies would be bruisers?
Now, to evaluate Penn’s need for improvement I have compared its scores with the data, above adding an additional calculation that factors in the distance it is from the necessary standard. In that way a middling factor with a very bad score takes on more importance as with this year’s abysmal free throw shooting. Using that crude methodology here are my findings.
The overall weighted average is a gap of 46 places. That’s a good sign because it is less than the KenPom total rank gap of 76 places, indicating some good detailed scores to build on. This team is great at 2D, assists, TOD and blocks, all well over the standards for the Champs.
Here are the problem areas. Number one, you guessed it, is defensive rebounding, 143 places below the standard. That lack of height ranks right behind in the scoring is clearly connected. The lousy free throw shooting comes next, followed by youth, 3% shooting, offensive efficiency, turnovers, fouls, O%D and 3D. Everything else is close to or above the standard.
This tells us clearly what Steve has to add next year: Size, a point guard and three-point shooting. One can see the emphasis on size and rebounding in all the recruits, the smallest at 6’5†and the biggest at 7’2â€. I bet Steve will encourage Simmons to lift weight this summer. So, the potential is there to address problem number one; it is just a matter of how long we must wait for frosh to perform. Should Simmons debut like AJ we will be very happy. Note that a lineup of Woods, Betley, Williams, Simmons and Brodeur would be quite large by Ivy standards.
The apparent point guard answers have to already in house, with no appreciable talent coming in. It’s either Goodman or Woods. The combination will clearly be better than the freshman Goodman and Foreman. Good enough? Don’t know.
The shooting answer is inside and out. Playing Ryan every day will help, as will judiciously spotting any of the current suspects in Wood, Jones and Donahue. Sufficient improvement still will require either Cook or Williams among the Frosh to put the ball in hole from three. One hopes also that Goodman and Wood (and Foreman) will improve with a summer of emphasis.
What can we reasonably expect? The combination of the strong recruiting class and Antonio Woods suggests that significant progress on one of the three priorities is likely. In addition, the improvement of incumbent players the last two years suggests some incremental improvement on the two others. That puts Penn on the edge of contention with maybe 18 wins. It will take some surprise to get more in one year. There is enough potential here to hope for that. Again, looks like The Process is working. Of course, many coaches can get in contention, but only the good ones get their teams over the hump. Princeton’s 46 ranking on defense is evidence of that this year. Did Steve just catch lightning in a bottle at Cornell. I think not.
In the meantime, how about a sweep next weekend? Geeze, Penn has only to win 10 straight to be national champions!
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-17 12:45 PM - Post#223747
In response to UPIA1968
The apparent point guard answers have to already in house, with no appreciable talent coming in.
Jelani Williams will play plenty of PG for Penn.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: What it takes to win the Ivies
02-26-17 02:30 PM - Post#223767
In response to UPIA1968
I believe Williams was recruited with the idea that he would play PG. doesn't necessarily mean he will, as the injury might have an impact, and he can also play 2 or 3. And it doesn't necessarily mean he will next year, with a vet incumbent, Woods back, and a rapidly improving Goodman. And that's all before we even get to the possibility that Silpe shoots a thousand 3s a day over the summer and comes back closer to the mold the coach envisions. So lots of options, but Williams may well be the PG down the line.
All that said, my money is on Goodman next year. Even in a weekend where I thought he played a little more like a freshman than the prior two weekends, there is still a tremendous amount to like in his play. And he seems to be improving rapidly. Seems like a strong candidate for the soph leap.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: What it takes to win the Ivies
02-26-17 02:37 PM - Post#223771
In response to SomeGuy
In future years Goodman I think will be a 2nd PG coming off the bench. He should excel in that role.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-26-17 03:06 PM - Post#223774
In response to penn nation
SD had Max and Aj and doesn't play them much together now. He won't change his desire to play 4 smalls with one big in my view. That's how he is wired. He will try to get Tyler, Jelani, Antonio...whomever...to be good rebounders to minimize that deficiency. That's how he rolls. I don't see him putting 2 bigs on the floor very often. It's not in his DNA.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-26-17 03:16 PM - Post#223776
In response to PennFan10
I think he'd do it if he had a Petrasek type who can spread the floor, and he definitely used 2 bigs at times at Cornell even when he didn't really have a 3 point shooter big.
We'll see what Simmons is able to do right away -- he may be good enough that it doesn't matter how the coach is wired. And if AJ keeps working on his shot from outside, he may be able to provide that Ability t spread the floor, anyway.
As for Goodman, I think he can be a starter. We'll see.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: What it takes to win the Ivies
02-26-17 03:21 PM - Post#223778
In response to UPIA1968
He won't qualify in the NCAA rankings this year (both in terms of % of games played in all of the team's games, and 3 pt shots made per game), but if he were eligible Betley would currently rank in the Top 25 of all DI players in 3 pt % (42.6%).
That will help us next year on the 3 point stuff when he's in for the whole year (unless he has a Donahue-like reversion). If any of our incoming recruits can prove to be consistent outside shooters, then we have a chance to do some real damage next year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: What it takes to win the Ivies
02-26-17 03:44 PM - Post#223783
In response to penn nation
Well yes. If I was betting, I'd take Goodman to start next year. But it's close. I think AJ and Betley are locks.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: What it takes to win the Ivies
02-26-17 03:48 PM - Post#223787
In response to SomeGuy
I think that Goodman's speed and energy would be most effective coming off the bench. He might start leading off the year but given all of the other folks in the mix next year, there might be more talented freshmen who will eventually assume that role.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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What it takes to win the Ivies
02-26-17 08:44 PM - Post#223816
In response to penn nation
Yeah, I'd bet more money on Goodman continuing in a 6th man role. Could end up playing starter's minutes, but off the bench.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 02-26-17 08:44 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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tguru
Masters Student
Posts: 409
Reg: 01-10-05
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Re: What it takes to win the Ivies
02-27-17 12:00 PM - Post#223857
In response to penn nation
In future years Goodman I think will be a 2nd PG coming off the bench. He should excel in that role.
From the steals to the 40ft bounce pass to Betley score to the sweet drives and 3pt strokes...why such little confidence in this FRESHMAN with a pretty solid handle? Goodman/Woods or Foreman/Woods. We'll see.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: What it takes to win the Ivies
02-27-17 02:38 PM - Post#223880
In response to tguru
I like him. In two years a 6th man on this team will be no mean feat.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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02-27-17 04:11 PM - Post#223900
In response to penn nation
BTW, I've been watching Eddie Scott's video and I'm wondering if he's the newcomer most likely to start. He seems like he would be playing the right position, and he looks ready to be physical out there. If he can defend and reliably drain the open J (two things you can't tell for sure from highlight videos), he looks like he could fill the Howard spot too. Even more so if he can hit free throws.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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What it takes to win the Ivies
02-27-17 04:16 PM - Post#223901
In response to Penndemonium
Goodman does not seem that far behind where Ibby was as a Freshman. While he isn't a pure scorer, I liked his emerging confidence to handle the ball and initiate plays at key times. He seems promising, whether a starter or 6th man. With Goodman, Woods, and Williams, we have 3 PG prospects with potential. I hope one of them is the real deal.
Edited by Penndemonium on 02-27-17 04:16 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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