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Username Post: Women's Tiebreaker Situation        (Topic#20025)
dperry 
Masters Student
Posts: 786
dperry
Loc: Oreland, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
02-26-17 08:35 PM - Post#223815    

I'll summarize the women's situation going into the final weekend for those who are interested:

1.) Penn, Princeton, and Harvard are all outright in; Columbia and Dartmouth are outright eliminated.

2.) Cornell is 6-6; Brown and Yale are 5-7. Yale and Brown go to Cornell and Columbia for the final weekend; Yale plays the Red on Friday, Brown Saturday. The scenarios are as follows (I am assuming that Penn will stay in first, which with a two game lead with three to play and most of the tie scenarios in their favor, seems likely. If that is the case, Harvard and Princeton's finishes are irrelevant to this question):

a.) Cornell wins both games, gets in outright, easy peezy lemon squeezy.

b.) Cornell splits, but the team they lose to loses to Columbia (not at all impossible, given that Camille Zimmerman dropped 31 on Penn last night and that the Lions already beat Yale): once again, Cornell in outright, EPLS.

c.) Brown sweeps and Cornell beats Yale: Brown is in with a season sweep of the Red.

d.) Yale sweeps and Cornell beats Brown: Yale splits the H2H with Cornell, but goes in by virtue of having beaten Penn.

e.) Both Brown and Yale sweep: again, H2H is even, and Yale gets in by having beaten Penn.

f.) Brown and Yale both beat Cornell but lose to Columbia (again, not completely inconceivable): Brown takes the three-way by virtue of having two wins against the Red and one against the "Dogs, whereas Yale will only have one win against each of the other two, and Cornell will only have one win against Yale.

So basically, Cornell is in the best position, in that a sweep or a win against Brown and a Yale loss to Columbia gets them in. Yale must sweep; Brown must at least beat Cornell and must get help from one of the C's against Yale.

If Penn does somehow manage to completely gag it up, the records against the other two are as follows:
Harvard--Cornell and Yale split, Brown lost both.
Princeton--Cornell and Brown split, Yale lost both.

3.) Princeton and Harvard both need at least one win or a Cornell loss to clinch at least a #3 seed outright. Given the new revelations about the tiebreakers, I'm not sure what happens if Princeton loses all three games and Cornell wins both; in that situation, they will have split the H2H and will have exactly the same records against every other team, so we will go to the ratings. Currently, Cornell has a small lead in both of the RPI rankings (which are pretty much the same thing anyway, so kind of dumb to use both), but Princeton has a bigger lead in Sagarin, and therefore a slight advantage in the overall average. Whether the fact that Princeton will play two top 100 teams in RPI (Harvard and Penn) will make up for their losing to a sub-200 team (Dartmouth) and Cornell's two wins, I know not. However, they should beat the Green, so this is almost certainly academic. On the other hand, if Harvard loses to both Princeton and Penn and Cornell takes both games, Cornell would get the #3 based on having beaten Princeton, and while this is unlikely, it's not totally out of the question.

Also, Harvard is currently 30 in RPI, so if they beat Princeton and Penn this weekend, beat one of the P's in the first round, but then lose to the other in the finals, there is at least a slight chance that they could get an at-large. They would have a win against a team currently in the top 20 in RPI (Temple) and a top 100 schedule. It seems unlikely that that would overcome four league losses, but then few thought Princeton would get in last year either.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


Edited by dperry on 02-26-17 08:40 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
dperry 
Masters Student
Posts: 786
dperry
Loc: Oreland, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
Re: Women's Tiebreaker Situation
03-04-17 07:14 PM - Post#224761    
    In response to dperry

So the quick update for those not looking at the Penn board:

1.) The winner of Cornell and Brown takes the last spot tonight.
2.) Penn must still beat Harvard or Princeton or get a Princeton loss against Dartmouth to get the #1 seed.
3.) If Harvard loses and Cornell wins, the Red get the #3.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


 
whitakk 
Sophomore
Posts: 146

Age: 26
Reg: 11-11-14
03-04-17 07:58 PM - Post#224779    
    In response to dperry

What a game from Shayna Mehta (scored 28, assisted 9 more). Brown's going to be fun to watch next week.

 
dperry 
Masters Student
Posts: 786
dperry
Loc: Oreland, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
03-04-17 09:12 PM - Post#224827    
    In response to whitakk

  • whitakk Said:
What a game from Shayna Mehta (scored 28, assisted 9 more). Brown's going to be fun to watch next week.



Yeah, frankly, with both Princeton and Harvard sputtering to the end of the season here, Brown's probably the team I fear most at this point. We're going to need to have a good game offensively again.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


 
whitakk 
Sophomore
Posts: 146

Age: 26
Reg: 11-11-14
03-05-17 01:45 AM - Post#224913    
    In response to dperry

Brown had also lost four straight at home before this weekend (though all were close). Nothing would surprise me much in that tournament.

 
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