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Username Post: Dartmouth #2        (Topic#20045)
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
03-02-17 11:28 AM - Post#224271    

KenPom has Penn -13. Seems steep.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32687

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Dartmouth #2
03-02-17 11:37 AM - Post#224272    
    In response to PennFan10

Line is telling us that Penn should win easily. That is something few Penn fans want to be saying in advance of this game.

 
SteveChop 
PhD Student
Posts: 1150

Reg: 07-28-07
03-02-17 12:04 PM - Post#224276    
    In response to palestra38

I'm a simple guy who doesn't care about point spreads - let's just win!

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-02-17 12:48 PM - Post#224287    
    In response to SteveChop

It's fair and frankly if bettors keep pushing lines momentum-based, it could move a bit further toward Penn.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
03-02-17 12:54 PM - Post#224290    
    In response to mrjames

Any Penn fans who take the Quakers giving the points are just begging the basketball gods to smite them. Don't do it, kids. Just say no.

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 196

Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
Re: Dartmouth #2
03-02-17 12:59 PM - Post#224291    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Line is telling us that Penn should win easily. That is something few Penn fans want to be saying in advance of this game.



Well I'm brave, I think we win this one easily.

And tell me what I'm missing. In another thread you say about the Dartmouth game:
"Obviously, we must win and should win, but we know we could lose and it is all over."
Why do you say "it is all over". I thought the only way the Dartmouth game might possibly mean anything to us is if Yale loses to Columbia Saturday night.



 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32687

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Dartmouth #2
03-02-17 01:02 PM - Post#224292    
    In response to westphillywarrior

That will only matter if we beat Harvard. We have a much greater chance as I see it of splitting (beating Dartmouth and losing to Harvard) while Columbia loses two than losing the Dartmouth game and beating Harvard while Columbia splits.

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 196

Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
Re: Dartmouth #2
03-02-17 01:13 PM - Post#224293    
    In response to palestra38

Ok, got it. But that's very far from saying "it's all over" if we lose to Dartmouth.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32687

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Dartmouth #2
03-02-17 01:49 PM - Post#224303    
    In response to westphillywarrior

Yes, that was overdramatic....but a loss takes away one of our easiest paths to the spot.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-02-17 02:23 PM - Post#224305    
    In response to palestra38

Penn officially opens -11. I'd expect a lot of money on Penn at that number.

 
T.P.F.K.A.D.W. 
PhD Student
Posts: 1169

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
03-02-17 02:33 PM - Post#224306    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
Penn officially opens -11. I'd expect a lot of money on Penn at that number.


Any idea of the volume of money that is bet on Ivy games vs. bigger conference games? Since Friday games are generally the only (or some of the few) games in town, I wonder if the volume for Friday Ivy games is significantly higher than for Saturday Ivy games (when there are many other games being played.)

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
03-02-17 02:41 PM - Post#224310    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

The above may be the greatest formatting outcome in board history. It's like a poem titled "games."

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32687

Reg: 11-21-04
03-02-17 02:49 PM - Post#224312    
    In response to SRP

Damn, I wish I knew what he was talking about. I've always regretted that Penn didn't offer the Masters in Iambic Pentameter you could study at Princeton.

 
Go Green 
PhD Student
Posts: 1124

Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
Re: Dartmouth #2
03-02-17 03:49 PM - Post#224319    
    In response to westphillywarrior

  • westphillywarrior Said:


Well I'm brave, I think we win this one easily.

And tell me what I'm missing.




For openers, Dartmouth won the first game.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: Dartmouth #2
03-02-17 04:00 PM - Post#224320    
    In response to Go Green

  • Go Green Said:
  • westphillywarrior Said:


Well I'm brave, I think we win this one easily.

And tell me what I'm missing.




For openers, Dartmouth won the first game.



And if Matt H/AJ combine for 13 and 4 Miles Wright goes 5-7 from 3 at the Palestra you may in fact win again.


 
section110 
Masters Student
Posts: 847

Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
03-02-17 04:35 PM - Post#224323    
    In response to mrjames

If you're using sabermetrics to bet on Ivy games, don't tell your wife. and have a separate account so that she doesn't learn how much you are losing.

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
03-02-17 07:25 PM - Post#224344    
    In response to section110

The lines usually open close to the kenpom ratings which would make us -14 at home. Last I saw was 12.5. I agree that's a lot, but that translates into a roughly 85-90% win percentage.

My 'gamblers gut' tells me, assuming Friday goes as expected, we will be something like +3 on Saturday, or a 35-40% win prob. That makes a sweep something like a 33% proposition. I would be that one of it were on the board.

 
weinhauers_ghost 
Postdoc
Posts: 2125

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
03-02-17 07:53 PM - Post#224347    
    In response to Streamers

Penn Athletics needs to get their act together, or at least bring in a couple of English majors to proofread outgoing communications. I got the Penn Athletics News e-mail, and it lists the starting time for Saturday's game against Harvard as 7:00 AM.

Back to backs are rough, but they're even worse when you lose that much recovery and preparation time.

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 196

Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
03-02-17 08:19 PM - Post#224353    
    In response to Streamers

I think Saturday will be about pick em.

 
westphillywarrior 
Sophomore
Posts: 196

Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
03-02-17 08:23 PM - Post#224355    
    In response to westphillywarrior

And about the same for the same match up in the tournament championship game.

 
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