PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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03-02-17 11:28 AM - Post#224271
KenPom has Penn -13. Seems steep.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32687
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dartmouth #2 03-02-17 11:37 AM - Post#224272
In response to PennFan10
Line is telling us that Penn should win easily. That is something few Penn fans want to be saying in advance of this game.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1150
Reg: 07-28-07
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03-02-17 12:04 PM - Post#224276
In response to palestra38
I'm a simple guy who doesn't care about point spreads - let's just win!
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-02-17 12:48 PM - Post#224287
In response to SteveChop
It's fair and frankly if bettors keep pushing lines momentum-based, it could move a bit further toward Penn.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-02-17 12:54 PM - Post#224290
In response to mrjames
Any Penn fans who take the Quakers giving the points are just begging the basketball gods to smite them. Don't do it, kids. Just say no.
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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Re: Dartmouth #2 03-02-17 12:59 PM - Post#224291
In response to palestra38
Line is telling us that Penn should win easily. That is something few Penn fans want to be saying in advance of this game.
Well I'm brave, I think we win this one easily.
And tell me what I'm missing. In another thread you say about the Dartmouth game:
"Obviously, we must win and should win, but we know we could lose and it is all over."
Why do you say "it is all over". I thought the only way the Dartmouth game might possibly mean anything to us is if Yale loses to Columbia Saturday night.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32687
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dartmouth #2 03-02-17 01:02 PM - Post#224292
In response to westphillywarrior
That will only matter if we beat Harvard. We have a much greater chance as I see it of splitting (beating Dartmouth and losing to Harvard) while Columbia loses two than losing the Dartmouth game and beating Harvard while Columbia splits.
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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Re: Dartmouth #2 03-02-17 01:13 PM - Post#224293
In response to palestra38
Ok, got it. But that's very far from saying "it's all over" if we lose to Dartmouth.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32687
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dartmouth #2 03-02-17 01:49 PM - Post#224303
In response to westphillywarrior
Yes, that was overdramatic....but a loss takes away one of our easiest paths to the spot.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-02-17 02:23 PM - Post#224305
In response to palestra38
Penn officially opens -11. I'd expect a lot of money on Penn at that number.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1169
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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03-02-17 02:33 PM - Post#224306
In response to mrjames
Penn officially opens -11. I'd expect a lot of money on Penn at that number.
Any idea of the volume of money that is bet on Ivy games vs. bigger conference games? Since Friday games are generally the only (or some of the few) games in town, I wonder if the volume for Friday Ivy games is significantly higher than for Saturday Ivy games (when there are many other games being played.)
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4894
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-02-17 02:41 PM - Post#224310
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
The above may be the greatest formatting outcome in board history. It's like a poem titled "games."
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32687
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-02-17 02:49 PM - Post#224312
In response to SRP
Damn, I wish I knew what he was talking about. I've always regretted that Penn didn't offer the Masters in Iambic Pentameter you could study at Princeton.
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Go Green
PhD Student
Posts: 1124
Age: 52
Reg: 04-22-10
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Re: Dartmouth #2 03-02-17 03:49 PM - Post#224319
In response to westphillywarrior
Well I'm brave, I think we win this one easily.
And tell me what I'm missing.
For openers, Dartmouth won the first game.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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Re: Dartmouth #2 03-02-17 04:00 PM - Post#224320
In response to Go Green
Well I'm brave, I think we win this one easily.
And tell me what I'm missing.
For openers, Dartmouth won the first game.
And if Matt H/AJ combine for 13 and 4 Miles Wright goes 5-7 from 3 at the Palestra you may in fact win again.
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section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-02-17 04:35 PM - Post#224323
In response to mrjames
If you're using sabermetrics to bet on Ivy games, don't tell your wife. and have a separate account so that she doesn't learn how much you are losing.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8141
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-02-17 07:25 PM - Post#224344
In response to section110
The lines usually open close to the kenpom ratings which would make us -14 at home. Last I saw was 12.5. I agree that's a lot, but that translates into a roughly 85-90% win percentage.
My 'gamblers gut' tells me, assuming Friday goes as expected, we will be something like +3 on Saturday, or a 35-40% win prob. That makes a sweep something like a 33% proposition. I would be that one of it were on the board.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2125
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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03-02-17 07:53 PM - Post#224347
In response to Streamers
Penn Athletics needs to get their act together, or at least bring in a couple of English majors to proofread outgoing communications. I got the Penn Athletics News e-mail, and it lists the starting time for Saturday's game against Harvard as 7:00 AM.
Back to backs are rough, but they're even worse when you lose that much recovery and preparation time.
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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03-02-17 08:19 PM - Post#224353
In response to Streamers
I think Saturday will be about pick em.
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westphillywarrior
Sophomore
Posts: 196
Age: 43
Reg: 01-08-11
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03-02-17 08:23 PM - Post#224355
In response to westphillywarrior
And about the same for the same match up in the tournament championship game.
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